I have been reading year end prediction performance blog posts and new 2020 predictions.
There are some people who made 2019 predictions who should never be allowed to make another prediction. Ever.
I will post my own report card and my own 2020 predictions in a blog post next week. I did very well on the accuracy of my predictions.
But, what I learned is that everybody uses a lens that is colored by their own bias, by their own desire to see something turn out the way they want it to turn out.
What this motivates me to do is to share some difficult, universal truths. Here they are:
1. You (meaning me also) are not the smartest person in the world. To be really smart, requires study, research, and thought. Even then, you will never be the smartest person in the world.
2. Even when you have “good” information, you often misinterpret it, miss something critical, and get it wrong. All by yourself.