Big Red Car here. Happy Easter!
OK, let’s cut the crap on the issue of the Ukraine and the implications for Europe and NATO.
The Big Red Car will from time to time “cut the crap” about an important issue and make sure you have the truth of a matter. Why not?
Current situation
Russia and Vladimir Putin now control Crimea. The reasons why are no longer important. The only real thing is that Putin goes to his Easter Egg Hunt this morning with the Crimea as part of Russia. Done deal.
One has to ask oneself, has anything been done to discourage a repetition of this behavior?
Big Red Car sayeth NO! Sorry. The answer is NO.
Future situation
Russia and Vladimir Putin have designs on Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Moldova and Poland. He is angry that NATO expanded onto his borders back in 1994. NATO did, in fact, intend to pinch Russia a bit. Now they are pushing back.
These countries, or as Putin calls them the “appetizer course” are all members of NATO. Being a member of NATO, which is a mutual defense treaty not a social or economic alliance, requires an attack on one to be considered as an attack on all.
This is the significance of Article 5 of the charter which forms NATO. It is the “go to war” feature of the alliance.
Putin has already signaled his and Russia’s willingness to go down the same path in those countries as he did in the Crimea. That includes a call to action to protect Russian speaking people, to suggest Russian speaking people are being unjustly attacked and therefore need to be protected and false plebiscites. Sound familiar? Yes, Crimea all over again.
You will recall Putin and Russia conducted a phony plebiscite in Crimea. They announced the results on the Thursday before the Sunday election [that is a little Big Red Car joke, ya’ll; please laugh politely and then roll your eyes]. Interestingly enough, the Crimeans “voted” to become part of Russia and were immediately granted their wish.
Future situation
Will NATO fight — go to war — over Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Moldova or Poland? The answer is NO.
Will the US, as part of NATO, go to war over Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Moldova or Poland? The answer is NOT BLOODY LIKELY.
Most importantly, last week the US pulled out its last Abrams tank from continental Europe. Ooops. Very bad timing. At the height of the Cold War, the US had 400,000 troops including its most powerful Armored Divisions, the 6th Fleet in the Med and the 10th Special Forces Group in Bad Tolz. Taken together with NATO forces, this army could whip Russia.
The US is contracting its military forces and redeploying them world wide. Pulling out of Europe and Afghanistan. The US is not deployed to fight in Europe.
America is war weary and the President is not going to test that war weariness regardless of what happens in Europe.
The President and his Cabinet have designed and enacted unrealistic and ineffective sanctions against Russia. They include “no meat on Friday” and no discounts on Disneyland tickets. The Russians have laughed at us. The Russians consider President Obama to be an ineffective and weak leader. Imagine that, ya’ll?
Call to action
Let’s cut the crap right now — there is no effective plan to forestall Russian designs on these NATO member countries. We and NATO will NOT fight regardless of the implications of Article 5. Would you personally agree to go fight for Latvia? Or Estonia?
Let me be more blunt. Do YOU actually know where any of these countries are located? No, you do not.
Russia will take these countries at their will. And, now, we have cut the crap on what will happen.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car. Happy Easter!