Big Red Car here. It’s a quiet morning and nobody is up and stirring yet. Well, except for that mean old bitch, the market. She’s been up all night long making the adjustments that she is wont to make.
Ahhh, the sound of rain falling gently on our lovely ATX. It is a narcotic sound and makes me want to get back to sleep.
But, dear reader, I must tell you about something that is very obvious — the market is not stupid.
In capitalism — my favorite and only functioning —ism — the market is the final arbiter of wisdom and choice. It picks the winners and losers at the chopping block of the same choices.
Screw with the market or otherwise nudge the market in a particular direction and it will find its footing like a gyroscopically rectified gimballed mechanism. [OK, if you don’t know how gyroscopes and gimbals work, then think of it like a sailboat in stormy water. Eventually that big heavy keel makes the boat come right side up and plow through the waves. Sheesh, Big Red Car, folks don’t think about gyroscopes and gimbals. WTF, Big Red Car?]
Well the market has been evaluating the balance between full time and part time employment for a long time — since the recession began back in 2008, Old Sport. Here is what it looks like to that vicious bitch, the market.
Holy smokes, Big Red Car, look at how much full time employment has declined since 2008 and how much part time employment employment has increased. The curves speak for themselves. [Stop shouting, please, market bitch — we get it.]
If you look carefully, you can see some very interesting things.
1. The big initiator was the recession beginning in 2008. [Duh, Big Red Car, really?]
2. Look at how the curves move in almost perfect tandem. These hiring decisions and outcomes are in almost perfect correlation indicating a linkage that is strong and predictable.
3. Look how it has moved on the eve of the implementation of Obama Care. [Wow, Big Red Car, employers are responding with a fierce thumbs down, or not?]
The market is singing a symphony to America and its economy.
1. We have not really recovered our employment footing since the recession of 2008.
2. Employers are using a lot more part time workers and fewer full time workers meaning any job gains in the short term are likely not very good jobs. So while unemployment seems to have stabilized at 7.5% or more, the real head fake is the huge number of part time jobs. [Trouble in paradise, Big Red Car? Yes, Grasshopper, all is not well on the unemployment front. The numbers do not lie.]
3. Obama Care is not a zero sum game. Employers are trimming their windows of vulnerability. They are taking action to save themselves. They always, always, always do — gyroscopes and gimbals at work here, Big Red Car.
The market is not stupid, ya’ll. Even a Big Red Car can see that.
The Big Red Car adores the analysis and commentary and graphs of Doug Short, PhD at dshort.com. Brilliant and prolific guy. If you are not looking at his stuff, then you are flying blind, Old Sport. Go look at it. Look at this article about part time v full time employment. It is compelling.