10/3/22

Putin – The Nuclear Noose Tightens – BOOM!

Putin will order the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine before the the end of October. Allow me to lay out the case for why it happens.

How did we get here, Big Red Car?

The time line looks like this:

 1. Putin began to move troops onto the border of Ukraine on 21 February 2021, less than a month after Joe Biden’s Inauguration Day. Putin said these soldiers, airborne troopers, were there to “conduct exercises.”

 2. On 30 August 2021, the United States conducted its incompetent withdrawal from Afghanistan exposing its feckless leadership and dwindling resolve.

Russia watched carefully and Putin rubbed his hands in glee sensing the Americans (and by association, NATO) were vulnerable. Continue reading

09/7/22

The German Blunder, Chancellor Merkel’s Disaster

In late September 2018 — four years before the Russian invasion of Ukraine — the American President gave a speech, a prescient and foretelling speech, at the United Nations in which he cautioned the German nation not to become dependent upon Russia for its energy needs.

President Donald J Trump in a reflective moment before giving his best foreign policy speech at the United Nations at the high point of his tenure.

In that speech the American President said:

Reliance on a single foreign supplier can leave a nation vulnerable to extortion and intimidation. That is why we congratulate European states, such as Poland, for leading the construction of a Baltic pipeline so that nations are not dependent on Russia to meet their energy needs. Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course.

He was referring to the completion of NordStream II and the continuing operation of NordStream I.

Continue reading

04/9/22

Act II, the Russian Despoilment of Ukraine

The Russians and the Puffer Coat Putin’s plan for Act I in the despoilment and depredation of Ukraine did not go according to plan.

 1. The Russian army, a thuggish collection of murderers, rapists, and criminals with vast amounts of weaponry and armor with piss poor leadership and comms failed to drive down from Belarus, shout BOO! at Kyiv, and take the capital and kill the President Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy in the planned 4 days. Stupid Russians. Continue reading

04/6/22

Russian Bond Default Impending

In the midst of the bloody slaughter that is Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the multitude of war crimes, Ukrainians with hands wired behind their backs and a bullet in their head, tongues cut out, bodies left to decompose in the streets behind retreating Russian forces, wholesale rape of girls and women, and the imposition of crushing economic sanctions by the west — it isn’t enough — Russia continues the charade that it is a part of a modern, global, civilized, financial world.

The Russians are desperately trying to preserve their sovereign nation bonds and to prevent them from going into default. Continue reading

04/2/22

The Empire Strikes Back

Russia is feeling the pain of western sanctions and has begun to attempt to punch back. The problem is they have very limited power when they are financially ostracized by the west.

One more time: The Russian economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product is 25% smaller than Italy and its GDP is going to crater with the sanctions. This is the real problem. Russia economically is a pimple on the world’s economic ass. 

Russia is a gas station with a coal bin out back. Continue reading

04/1/22

Weaponizing The Cell Phone In Ukraine

In Ukraine, a Russian (particularly senior officers) or a Ukrainian soldier better think twice before calling a girlfriend or Mom. It could cost them or their platoon their lives.

Both sides are using cell phone tech — the cell phone’s search for a nearby tower or mast through which to connect to the cell system — to identify the location of the cell phone and the soldier.

With simple triangulation based on using drones — tower/mast simulating drones — to mimic cell phone towers both sides can pinpoint locations, listen in on calls, and identify units thereafter sending missiles, rockets, or artillery to kill the soldiers at that location.

The Russians use a bit of gear called a Leer – 3 composed of a command truck and two drones that can identify up to 2,000 cell phones in a 4 mile area. One of the challenges is that 4 miles puts the electronic warfare gear close to the fighting.

Russian Leer – 3 electronic warfare command truck with drone.

Not to be outdone, the Ukrainians target such vehicles and use drones to send them a rocket of their own. Continue reading