America is awakening from the Pandemic Slumber — some states like Texas and Florida are fully awake and have been for a short period of time. The rest of the other states are throwing off their Rip Van Winkle nightshirts and starting to stretch.
What is also happening is:
1. People are no longer huddled in front of their computers (shout out to Netflix) 24/7 whilst imprisoned in their homes binge buying things from the ‘Net and Amazon.
2. People are emerging to partake of restaurants, entertainment, travel, catchup family visits, going to delayed wedding receptions, and walks in the park with a vengeance giving rise to revenge expenditures of funds. There is an energy nigh unto a frenzy to get out and about.
3. Consumer expenditures are, understandably, going to rotate out of B2C consumer goods on the ‘Net to revenge restaurant, travel, and entertainment expenditures.
4. Consumer funds are not unlimited and this rotation, this re-allocation, this return to another focus is going to displace one category of expenditures with another.
What’s the Big Deal, Big Red Car?
The Big Deal, grasshopper, is that B2C companies are going to see some compression of spending, of gross revenue as the citizenry is released from COVID prison.
It will not be a huge thing. Great companies with great products will still sell, but there will not be the COVID, stay-at-home B2C consumer goods binge spending.
Going out on a limb, I am predicting a 25% move that will be righted by Christmas 2021. Christmas will re-orient expenditures. Totally unscientific, mind you. Just a gut feeling. Will be seen more in things related to the home.
Deal with it and understand that as things return to some “new normal,” spending will also shift.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car. Absorb the blow and move on. It will all be fine.