A month ago, I wrote that the Taliban would control Afghanistan within six months:
At the time, I was stepping out, big time. I would like to revise my prediction. The Afghan government will not last for more than thirty days.
When I made the six month prediction, US intelligence was saying it would take a year and maybe the Afghans — they had an army of 350,000 that we trained and armed — would last for a year.
Now, US intel is saying the the government may fall in six months (some have said three months), so I revised my prediction: the Taliban will control Kabul, the capital, in a month.
Why now, Big Red Car?
Here are the reasons why, dear reader:
1. The US Army trained the 350,000 man strong Afghan Army (the Taliban has fewer than 50,000 men), we equipped them, and are providing close air support.
The Afghan Army cannot and will not fight. They are a tribal people and do not hold a nationalistic view of the fight.
The Afghan military outnumbers the Taliban by 7:1. They just won’t and can’t fight and win.
2. The Taliban have momentum with their success of taking a number of provincial capitals (12/34 taken) and the third largest city, Herat.
Herat, which has been around for more than 2,500 years, was once captured by Alexander the Great. Now, the Taliban own it. It would be like an enemy capturing Chicago — only New York and Los Angeles are larger.
3. The Associated Press now reports that the Taliban have taken the second largest city in Afghanistan, Kandahar. This is the equivalent of capturing Los Angeles.
4. Governors and Chiefs of Police of individual provinces and cities have surrendered their cities to the Taliban and fled to Kabul.
5. The United States is currently moving thousands of US Marines into position to evacuate the US Embassy in Kabul.
We had been led to believe this would take a year, then six months, now it is going to happen in real time.
Having failed to obtain a negotiated peace, the US, with virtually no combat power in country other than air forces that can commute great distances to work, thinks it can cut a deal with the Taliban to not attack the US Embassy when they, the Taliban, seize Kabul.
With a defeated spirit reminiscent of the fall of Saigon in May 1975, the Embassy leadership is telling folks to get out of the country.
6. Our President — it is not his fault that the Taliban are winning — has suggested the Afghan Army has to ” . . . fight for themselves, fight for their nation.”
He notes we have spent a trillion dollars over 20 years and we have bupkis to show for our efforts which translates from the Yiddish as “absolutely nothing.” Nothing.
Bottom line it, Big Red Car
It is over in Afghanistan. We are getting ready to see the US humiliated, the US Army being exposed as feckless trainers, the Afghan Army to be cowardly and ineffective, and we shall see a triumph by the Taliban that will embolden our enemies for decades.
The Graveyard of Empires, Afghanistan will claim another loser.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.