04/3/20

Fifty Fights — COVID19 War

The United States is a big country with fifty states. These individual states are the distinct battlegrounds in which the COVID19 War is being waged.

Some areas — the NY-NJ-Conn Tri-State Area — are linked at the hip, but the rest of the country is seeing a series of individual fights that may have different regional outcomes based on the elemental nature of their population density — urban/dense and rural/sparse — and the way the fight is undertaken.

There is good news and bad news:

 1. The good news — individual states, cities, counties will rise to the occasion and, through superior execution, conduct an effective campaign and bear a lighter burden.

 2. The bad news — the individual states, cities, counties who do well will become domestic immigration targets. People will start moving from high risk areas to these lower risk areas, thereby importing — potentially — the COVID19.

The phenomenon of the Manhattan Beautiful Persons moving out to their Hamptons homes is a real thing and will overwhelm the small hospitals thereat.

In addition to the political subdivision fights, there is the personal fight — you and me. We need to do our individual duty to ensure we are not the target of COVID19 and that we do not spread it.

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04/2/20

Moving Markets — President Trump And Global Oil

We are living in interesting times. We are facing a pandemic, an economic crisis, a stock market brouhaha, and an oil bust.

Today, we focus on the oil bust. In case you haven’t been following things, the Russians and the Saudis got into a pissing contest as to the level of oil output by the OPEC + bunch.

OPEC + is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries which has been around since 1960 and is in the oil pricing manipulation business. The + means Russia is in the talks.

The result of the Saudi Arabia v Russia pissing contest — the Russians would not agree to reduce production levels — was a collapse in global oil prices with some incredibly low prices — 1950s prices — which then translated into lower gasoline prices.

These two clowns wrecked the global oil business in an amateurish “who has the bigger dick” contest.

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04/1/20

Fair Comparisons — WutangCurse By The Numbers

Public opinion is driven by emotion. Emotion should be based on facts, but we suffer from an inadequate body of data and an unwillingness by the media to report the facts fairly and accurately.

Honestly, I think the media is not smart enough to be able to make the right comparisons and the lens held up to evaluate the problem is too shaky and biased.

How is the US doing v the WutangCurse?

Let me make a comparison: the United States v the European Union (a roughly comparable equivalent).

USA v EU

The United States has 331,000,000 people.

The European Union has 341,000,000 people.

[This is a subset of the European Union which is being used for comparison purposes and doesn’t include all the twenty-eight European Union countries. This is the same subset used by World O Meter from which all the numbers are taken as of 00:00 GMT, 3-31-2020.]

The US has 188,592 total cases of the WutangCurse and has suffered 4,055 deaths.

The EU has 363,150 total cases and has suffered 25,318 deaths.

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