09/7/22

The German Blunder, Chancellor Merkel’s Disaster

In late September 2018 — four years before the Russian invasion of Ukraine — the American President gave a speech, a prescient and foretelling speech, at the United Nations in which he cautioned the German nation not to become dependent upon Russia for its energy needs.

President Donald J Trump in a reflective moment before giving his best foreign policy speech at the United Nations at the high point of his tenure.

In that speech the American President said:

Reliance on a single foreign supplier can leave a nation vulnerable to extortion and intimidation. That is why we congratulate European states, such as Poland, for leading the construction of a Baltic pipeline so that nations are not dependent on Russia to meet their energy needs. Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course.

He was referring to the completion of NordStream II and the continuing operation of NordStream I.

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03/14/22

The Sticky Math Of Crude Oil Imports v Pipelines

The United States was once upon a time energy independent and then Joe Biden was elected.

Since then, it has become apparent that we need to find some new sources of crude oil particularly since we finally stopped funding the crude Putin War Machine by buying more than 600,000 barrels a day of his nasty Russian crude.

The Biden administration is reportedly looking in Venezuela and Iran to replace that crude which entails the reality that it will be shipped in oil tankers.

Maybe they should look in the United States since we sit on a gigantic reservoir of oil and gas ourselves? Maybe we should re-invigorate the Keystone XL pipeline deal? Using domestic sources would preclude shipping costs and environmental impacts.

What is the environmental cost of importing oil via ship?

There is no alternative when importing oil than ships. Well, except for pipelines, trains, and trucks from Canada.

 

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11/5/21

The US Energy Independence Myth?

Guy I know says to me, “America was never energy independent, Big Red Car. It’s all just a myth. Fake news.” His chin is out, his face is slightly red, and his tone is provocative. In spite of all of that, I can detect he doesn’t quite believe his own malarkey.

“Really?” says I. “American energy independence is just a myth?”

He is a good friend, but taken to embracing leftist thoughts and believes I am a right wing radical myself. But, we have been friends for a long time, so we always resist the temptation to cancel each other.

“Yep. There is no proof,” says my amigo. Now, he looks quite pleased with himself. Takes a sip of his coffee and waits for me to respond. Meanwhile I am thinking through my response, committed to making it short, evidence-based, and conclusive.

“What if I could show you unequivocally that the US had massive crude oil production under the former regime and that it has diminished dramatically under the current regime?”

He laughed. It was a bitter laugh and didn’t befit him.

“Take your best shot,” he says and I do.

So, I showed him this graph:

The graph depicts American crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day over the time period of 2016 to today. It comes from a site called macrtotrends.net. Continue reading

10/11/20

CO2 And Fracking A Bit Of Truth

Comes now the conundrum as to whether former Vice President Joe Biden, Democrat candidate for President, is supportive of or opposed to fracking.

Allow me to kill that suspense for you — he opposes fracking, but is prepared to say whatever is necessary to obtain the most votes, which is a typical politician’s response and Mr. Biden is a politician.

Beneath the knee jerk on-again, off-again, political flip flopping is the notion that fracking is related to CO2 emissions. That turns out to be true.

“Joe, do we have any idea what the Hell is going on with fracking?” “Sorry, Kam, babe, we don’t have a clue. Just smile. Oh, today we are supportive of fracking. Can’t tell about next week. Just keep bobbing and weaving. Wow, do you smell good.”

But what is really happening out there as it relates to CO2 emissions and fracking?

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04/2/20

Moving Markets — President Trump And Global Oil

We are living in interesting times. We are facing a pandemic, an economic crisis, a stock market brouhaha, and an oil bust.

Today, we focus on the oil bust. In case you haven’t been following things, the Russians and the Saudis got into a pissing contest as to the level of oil output by the OPEC + bunch.

OPEC + is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries which has been around since 1960 and is in the oil pricing manipulation business. The + means Russia is in the talks.

The result of the Saudi Arabia v Russia pissing contest — the Russians would not agree to reduce production levels — was a collapse in global oil prices with some incredibly low prices — 1950s prices — which then translated into lower gasoline prices.

These two clowns wrecked the global oil business in an amateurish “who has the bigger dick” contest.

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03/8/20

Oil War

If you slept in on Daylight Savings Time, then you may have missed that we have another war erupting in the Middle East — Saudi Arabia (through the newly public Aramco which it controls) has lowered the price of its crude, while threatening to increase crude oil production by more than 2,300,000 barrels daily to a total of 12MM barrels per day.

This is a hissy fit on the heels of an unsuccessful OPEC + meeting (the plus being the addition of Russia) attempt to reduce production by 1.5MM barrels.

As always when this group meets, there was a lot of discussion, but no consensus.

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09/17/19

Iran, Curious, Provocative Iran

The Middle East is on the verge of an explosion precipitated by a spiral of Iranian provocative behavior. Your Big Red Car would like to calmly discuss what has transpired to bring the world to this point. We need to know the history of the region and Iran.

In 1979, the Shah of Iran — an American ally of some long standing — fled and the resulting leadership void was filled by the Ayatollah Khomeini, a religious exile of some fifteen years. The son of a religious scholar, the Shiite cleric was said to have memorized the Qur’an as a youth.

The Shah — Mohammed Reza of the family of Pahlavi — had been put into power in 1941 by the Russians and the British (when they attacked and seized Iran in World War II to safeguard supply lines to Russia) and was considered to have been only the second “modern” Shah. As Shah, Reza was pro-Western. He spoke English, French, German, and Persian (Farsi), but was at his core a playboy.

Reza, as Shah, launched the White Revolution in the mid-1960s. His advancement of the Iranian culture was extraordinary as was the growth of the standard of living amongst the Iranian people and womens’ rights. It is important to note that the Shah “reigned” and, ultimately, “ruled.” The big driver was oil wealth of gargantuan proportions. In many ways, he was ahead of his time in the westernization of Iran.

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