Tag Archives: inflation

12/13/21

The Inflation, CPI, PPI, Earnings Boogie

I think everyone in the United States understands we have entered a period of increasing prices — inflation. Nobody thinks it is actually going to be transitory.

Even the Biden admin says it’s going to be here through the end of 2023 after suggesting it would magically disappear by the end of 2021. Nay, not so.

Those who are students of the economy will fairly point at the extraordinarily naïve energy policy actions of the Biden admin as a trigger point or at least a milestone.

Nobody has missed that the price of gasoline has doubled since Joe Biden took office.

Glendale, California

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12/3/21

Inflation Is NOT A Headfake

It is too late already to unleash any definitive knock out punch against inflation. Damn it, it isn’t TRANSITORY. Stop that nonsense.

“Do not listen to this Big Red Car. Inflation will be 2%. Trust me. OK, maybe 4%. Sorry, PPI is 8.6%, so CPI will be double digit, but it’s TRANSITORY. It’ll come down in 2030 or 2035. I promise. My husband is one of the 17 Nobel economists who says Build Back Bolshevik will cure male pattern baldness. He can’t be wrong.”

It is here; it is deep; it is pervasive; and it isn’t going away any time soon. Continue reading →

10/30/21

Tech City Rent As A Measure Of Inflation

I am a little fixated on inflation these days. I look at modestly obscure sources of data to try to track the old bitch so when I read an article on average apartment rents in tech city markets, I had to bring it to your attention.

Let me cut to the chase.

 1. Rents went down a little during the pandemic. The general sense is that rents went down about 5% nationwide.

 2. With the advent of the vaccine, rents began to turn around and climb upward as folks began to return to offices and the migration to tech meccas resurged, and folks began to quit jobs to get better jobs (and better apartments).

Rents are up 25% in Austin By God Texas. Hello, America, can you say INFLATION?

Austin By God Texas

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10/29/21

Hyperinflation

The US government, the Biden admin, has already passed one huge Pandemic-related bill earlier this year and is in the death throes of passing two more:

 1. The American Recovery Plan Act was passed by the Dems to the tune of $1,900,000,000,000.

 2. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is waiting passage to the tune of $1,200,000,000,000.

 3. The Build Back Better Bill (The Bernie Sanders, “Damn Right I’m A Socialist” Bill) is awaiting passage to the tune of $3,500,000,000,000, but has been sent to the gym and whittled down to $1,900,000,000,000.

This is a “nominal” total of $5,000,000,000,000 ($1.9T + $1.2T + $1.9T = $5,000,000,000,000), but it will actually be far more — at least 2X — than that nominal amount because of the bogus way Congress prices such bills.

See:

The Black Magic of Congressional Arithmetic

for an explanation of how Congressional arithmetic really works. Continue reading →

10/21/21

Cut The Crap — Energy And Inflation

Today we cut the crap about the impact of energy, specifically rising energy prices, and inflation.

 1. The Biden admin made some bold energy moves — cancelling the Keystone XL pipeline, mothballing drilling/leasing/auctions on public lands, cancelling ANWR development, generally pissing on the leg of the energy sector — immediately upon taking office and they have had a negative impact on the price of energy and gasoline in particular.

 2. Inflation — under control for more than a decade — has now reared its ugly head. Even Clown Princess Yellen, Sec Treas, has conceded that inflation will more than double in the immediate future.

Just ponder that one thought — a new admin comes into office and in less than nine months more than doubles inflation and they act like it was a paper cut.

 3. The price of gasoline is a cost component in every product — COGS cost of good sold, for you bean counters — made or transported in America. Everything.

Here is what YOY inflation looks like right now:

As you can see, ENERGY is the skunk at the garden party. It is a component of both Transportation and Housing.

[My personal road trip experience is that gas is up more than 100%. I like to buy gas at Sams Club. I paid $1.52/gal in Tuscaloosa, Ala a year ago. Today, it is right at $3.00/gal.]

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10/5/21

Inflation, The Skunk At The Garden Party

Everybody — meaning anybody with a functioning brain — acknowledges that the scourge of inflation is loose in the land.

The Fed — hats off to these guys for having kept inflation at below 2% for the last 10 years, well played guys — says it is “transitory” meaning it will recede, but they cannot define the driving force that will propel that movement.

Why will it recede? What will drive it back from the gates of the city? What force?

Nobody disavows inflation; they just say it is transitory, will be fine, or ignore it.

Shipping Costs as an exemplar of inflation

So, I did some research and came up with this particular example to underpin my opinion:

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07/18/21

Inflation? Head Fake Or Reality?

We are told by the Federal Reserve in the person of its Chairman Jerome Powell that we are experiencing inflation, but that it will be “transitory.”

“Do not fret, dear, this inflation is transitory and you will be fine,” sayeth Jerome P during recent Congressional testimony. He then adjusts his glasses and gives you a grandfatherly look of confidence. But, should you feel good or is it all a head fake?

[Much of Christianity is built upon the notion that death is also transitory and that we shall live again in splendor with God in Heaven, but still we are dead. This is the story of inflation also?]

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