Donald J Trump, enroute to trouncing Kamala Harris, boasted he would end the Ukraine v Russia War before Inauguration Day. Might have been a bit of election braggadocio. Haha.
The old boy can be a bit of a boaster, a braggart. It’s part of his charm, I suppose. I take no offense as it communicates the sentiment clearly. I believe he legitimately does want peace.
Artisan Nothing Burger — sesame seeds and well toasted
But, now we are down to brass tacks and President Trump has had to stick his nose into that matter and he is getting a lesson. Donald Trump may be a fabulous negotiator — I think he is, but not always — but he made some amateurish mistakes: revealing his desire for Nato to go it alone and his desire to get the fuck out of Ukraine at any cost including the nation’s honor and integrity.
1. President Trump, et al, can bully Voldomyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, because President Trump controls the whip hand, the military largesse that is the Arsenal of Democracy.
Non-US Nato takes its lead from the United States as they have been sending the defense bill for Europe to the US since the end of World War II.
[Thoughtful aside alert: If the US doesn’t lead Nato, who will? Give me a bloody name, mate. Who?]
A quick re-look at non-US Nato, shall we?
2. President Trump cannot bully or influence Putin in any manner.
A critical point: This Putin scumbag, in the modern panoply of scumbags, wants to be recognized as a great power when in fact he is a very small barechested man. His country has a GDP inferior to Italy and Canada. It is barely larger than Mexico.
By dealing directly with the US, Putin seeks to achieve several strategic objectives:
1. Putin plays to the vanity of President Trump and his campaign utterance he would have the Ukraine v Russia War settled in one day or before Inauguration Day. Putin is a wiley former KGB operative and understands the personality of Donald Trump. Totally playing to Trump’s vanity.
2. Putin wants to avoid all the emotion of Ukraine and non-US Nato who will have to live with the agreement hereafter. Putin projects he is winning, but he knows that Russia is on the verge of economic collapse and this could literally blow up in his face. He has huge economic problems.
3. Putin wants to use the ceasefire and eventual peace to push Nato back and to ensure for all time that Ukraine is never made part of Nato. This is, of course, totally irrelevant if non-US Nato continues to support Ukraine.
4. What Putin really wants is THE REMOVAL OF ALL US AND NATO SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA. This is the big enchilada because, contrary to Russian disinformation, Russia is on the verge of an economic collapse and its army is terrible.
5. Putin actually believes the Europeans and the US will rekindle normal trade — including energy trade — with Russia as soon as the war is over. I actually fear the Europeans and the Americans are that bloody venal.
WTF reality are you talking about, Big Red Car?
I’m talking about this reality, dear reader.
1. President Trump and Putin had a two hour chat during which Putin told President Trump to take a hike and that he was not agreeing to any ceasefire regardless of how much Trump wanted it and how much Trump forced Zelenskyy to agree to it.
Game, set, match Zelenskyy for knowing his enemy better than Trump and the Americans.
2. Putin told President Trump that Russia would stop attacking “energy infrastructure” but only if Ukraine would agree to the same standard.
3. They also agreed to a 175 POW exchange.
4. They also discussed a sporting exchange of series of hockey games with the Russian hocksters v the American hocksters. FFS, what was that? Total distraction and an indication of how Putin controlled the dialogue.
Isn’t that progress, Big Red Car?
No, dear reader, it’s a nothing burger like kissing your younger sister on the head as she leaves for school.
This was billed as a “great power dialogue” and it was as inconsequential as the kiss on your little sister’s head.
To make it worse, the Russians attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure that same night the call took place. So much for Putin’s sincerity, eh?
The whole energy infrastructure issue is a very illuminating development.
1. Russia has been hammering Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the war began. At first this was very effective, but the Ukrainians developed effective anti-missile and drone countermeasures that have blunted the tip of the lance.
Plus, like the Brits in WWII and the German Blitz, the Ukrainians called on inner reserves of toughness and weathered the storm.
2. So, yes, Ukrainian anti-air countermeasures have been effective.
3. Ukraine has in the last year deployed weapons that allow it to return the favor striking Orc energy facilities inside Russia — once a big no-no from Putin and the trigger for nuclear retalitory measures. Because these targets are far behind the edge of the battle space, the Ukrainians have been very successful.
4. The Ukrainians, building on their excellent homegrown Neptune missile, now have a range sufficient to strike Moscow. Did you read that — the Ukrainainians have developed the capability to strike Moscow. This ability to strike deeper into Russia and with guidance systems that ensure on target delivery is a mind fuck for Russia and Putin’s Special Military Operation.
Haha, do you remember when Putin’s war was a “Special Military Operation” dedicaed to the de-Nazification of Ukraine. Now, it’s a war intended to stop the eastward spread of Nato. Sheesh!
5. Clearly, that was Putin’s desire to limit energy infrastructure attacks. It was the Neptune missile, in a shorter range version, that sunk the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Navy. This was quite a feat for a country without a formal navy.
So, Russia delivered a nothing burger.
Bottom line it, Big Red Car, we’re going spring skiing this afternoon before it gets slushy
Bad news, amigos, already slushy. Have to get out on the frozen corduroy at the first gonola lift. Shnoozing is losing. OK, be careful out there because of the drunk and stoned snowboarders.
1. Putin gave Trump nothing. [Technically not even the toasted bun of a nothing burger.]
2. There is nothing to build on. Sure Trump, et al, will trumpet the “success” of the dialogue, but nothing of substance happened and, clearly, the ceasefire for energy infrastructure didn’t hold very long.
3. This will hopefully inspire non-US Nato to rent a set of balls and decide how they intend to “go it alone” because Trump is not riding to the rescue in the white hat. Sorry. Not sorry. Pick a leader. Spend some money. Get in the fight.
It is my sense there is no current leader capable of pulling that coalition of non-US Nato together, they lack the political will to oppose Putin, and they won’t spend the defense money revealing the truth that they are only as tough as our pocketbook.
4. They used to say in Mexico, “Poor Mexico, so far from God and so close to the United States.” This was an observation about US expansion and Manifest Destiny and growing financial interests in Mexico by American companies.
Today, it would be fair to say, “Poor Ukraine, so far from Europe and so close to Russia.” This whole nonsense in Ukraine is created by that one thought — Ukraine sees its future with Europe and Putin wants it to return to be part of Russia. [For the record, the men in Hell this morning were clamoring for ice water.]
5. Trump wants the US out of Nato and out of Ukraine. This is an unshakeable belief. I have no problem with that other than the timing. I would want to settle the affair in Ukraine before pulling out. The world would be well served with a broken Russia — just like the USSR in the early 1990s — and a strong Ukraine.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car, but I know that ceasefire discussion between Trump and Putin was a waste of time and effort.