Taking The Hispanic Vote For Granted

The United States is approximately 18.5% Hispanic while America is 13.4% black.

The Hispanic vote has typically been much heavier on the Democrat side than the Republicans, but this is changing.

How’s it changing, Big Red Car?

Here, dear reader, is how it is changing:

 1. In the 2016 Presidential election, Hispanics voted 66% for Hillary Clinton and 28% for Donald Trump.

Trump did not do great with Hispanics. McCain — a terrible candidate — did much better with Hispanics than Trump.

2. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden got 61% and Donald Trump got 36% whilst the total Hispanic votes cast was up by 31%.

 3. Nationwide turnout in 2020 was up by 16% whilst Hispanic turnout was up by almost twice that amount at 31%.

Look at bullet points #2 and #3 — huge change and enormous implications for future elections.

 4. About 80% of all Hispanic votes are cast in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin.

A handful of these states are critical battleground states, thus the Hispanic vote can be very important in the outcome of elections.

So what, Big Red Car?

Ahhh, dear reader, the “so what” is this:

 1. In a recent Wall Street Journal survey asking Hispanics who they would vote for in a 2024 re-match between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Hispanics indicated:

44% – for Joe Biden

43% – for Donald Trump

This single reapportionment of Hispanic votes elects Donald Trump.

 2. In the 2020 election for Congress, Hispanic voters gave 60% of their support to Dem candidates. Asked who they would vote for today, Hispanics indicated:

37% – Republican

37% – Dem

22% – Undecided

This reallocation of votes would result in a very Republican Congress.

Bottom line it, Big Red Car

The Hispanic vote in America no longer belongs exclusively to the generic Dem candidate.

Hispanic voters are discerning and independent. They are now swing voters.

In the first ten months of the Biden admin he has completely underwhelmed even the dwindling support he had in 2020 and this prophesies a big win for the Republicans.

As you can see overall disapproval of Joe Biden and Hispanic disapproval of Joe Biden track almost exactly.

This shift is not solely about candidates. It is also a referendum on the performance of the Biden admin. Could be wrong, but this is an accelerating trend.