Measuring Consumer Confidence

We are inundated with media, pundits, and bloggers telling America what its opinion should be.

We are similarly flooded with pollsters — who seem to get Presidential elections and politics in general abysmally wrong — telling us what we think.

There are three long term, reliable measures of consumer/business confidence upon which I have historically relied to provide an accurate picture of the state of affairs in the country:

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

I particularly like to be able to see the trend as I am a firm believer that the trend is your friend. It shows you things that a discrete number cannot.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

You can find the UMCSI here: Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan

Here is the current chart (courtesy of Advisor Perspectives, Jill Mislinski). Clearly it shows a recent dip in confidence.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

You can find the CBCSI here: The Conference Board

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

You can find the NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) here: NFIB

Bottom line it, Big Red Car

There are a myriad of sources one can use to gauge consumer and small business confidence in the current economic environment. From a qualitative perspective, the overview is as one would expect — declining confidence, validated by the universal view of the three studies noted above.

Hats off also to Advisor Perspectives and Jill Mislinski who is the heir to DShort.com.

You can find Advisor Perspectives here: Advisor Perspectives

But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car — consumers are losing confidence as problems begin to pile up. Don’t be the last person to get the word.