Long ago, I opined that the United States was facing 50 individual fights as it relates to COVID19.
Fifty Fights — COVID19 War
Now, I opine there will be a like number of “re-openings.” They will be guided by the facts. Let me use a couple of examples.
These numbers are for the time period 2-1-2010 to 5-1-2020. This is three months. These are CDC numbers comparing New York City versus the State of Texas.
New York City (using NYC rather than the entire state of NY as it is a “hotspot” — the hottest of hot spots and the biggest fight in the COVID19 War).
COVID19 deaths: 11,425
Deaths from all causes: 31,247 <<< background deaths
Deaths from pneumonia: 5,148
Deaths from pneumonia + COVID19: 4,199
Flu deaths: 862
As you can see, COVID19 is a big killer when compared to background deaths, pneumonia, and flu deaths.
Let’s look at Texas, shall we.
COVID19 deaths: 446
Deaths from all causes: 49,284 <<< COVID19 is not even 1% of background deaths
Deaths from pneumonia: 3,669
Deaths from pneumonia + COVID19: 179
Flu deaths: 311
As you can see, pneumonia is far more deadly in Texas than COVID19 whilst the common flu is almost as deadly.
This a dramatic difference in the short term fortunes of NYC v Texas. [BTW, Texas is not the best example, but since I live in Texas, I used it. Also, Texas is big and NYC is big.]
Texas is slowly re-opening for business while NYC is not. These are fact-based decisions.
Texas was not as desperately afflicted with COVID19, the threat is commensurate with pneumonia and the flu — it makes sense to slowly re-open Texas.
We will have at least 50 such decision matrices in determining when and how to re-open.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car. Be good. Be safe. Be careful. 