I think everyone in the United States understands we have entered a period of increasing prices — inflation. Nobody thinks it is actually going to be transitory.
Even the Biden admin says it’s going to be here through the end of 2023 after suggesting it would magically disappear by the end of 2021. Nay, not so.
Those who are students of the economy will fairly point at the extraordinarily naïve energy policy actions of the Biden admin as a trigger point or at least a milestone.
Nobody has missed that the price of gasoline has doubled since Joe Biden took office.
Glendale, California
It’s all connected, y’all
We have several tightly connected aspects of what is happening.
1. The price of everything is going up — witness the Consumer Price Index and its most recent November print was 6.8%.
2. The PPI (producer price index) — the price of goods at the manufacturer’s shipping dock — is a precursor to CPI increases.
If PPI is going up, then CPI is going up a couple of months later when these more costly goods arrive at the retailer.
3. As noted above, CPI in November 2021 is up by more more than 6.8% — the highest increase in four decades all the way back to 1982.
4. Applying a seasonal adjustment to the CPI shows a 0.8% month-over-month increase and many folks who can do math in their heads are tempted to multiply the monthly increase by 12 months and say the indicator is really 9.6%.
The economists will tell you that is amateurish. I think it is bloody on the money.
5. Tomorrow we get the monthly PPI at 8:30 AM and I believe, I predict it will be 9% up from October when it was 8.4%.
PPI comes out monthly. It was delayed for a day from the original BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) schedule. Hmmm.
So what happens, Big Red Car?
These are the facts upon which the following resultant actions are based:
1. If you are a salaried worker or an hourly worker, then you need to receive about a 10% wage increase in 2022 just to tread water — no improvement in your buying power, mate, just treading water.
2. If you are an employer and have an open position, you can only attract applicants by paying higher wages — hence more wage inflation.
3. We currently have 11,100,000 open positions whilst having 7,500,000 workers looking for work.
Demand far outstripping supply always drives prices — in this instance labor — higher.
4. Contrary to all the chest beating, the economy is NOT creating jobs; the economy is filling existing openings.
5. There is a huge difference between creating new jobs and filling existing openings even though folks seem to think they are the same thing.
6. If you are a worker, you have to get a wage increase.
If you are an employer, you have to offer higher wages to fill your open positions.
7. If you are a consumer, you have to pay for this with higher prices. Welcome to inflation.
Is this real, Big Red Car?
Atop all of this talk is another harsh reality — the government (meaning the Dems who control the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives) want to enact the largest spending bill in history coupled with the largest tax increase in history and want you to believe three preposterous things:
1. Spending $10T by the government will not be inflationary and withdrawing an enormous amount of wealth from the private sector in the form of more taxes will be good for the economy.
Why? Because, dear reader, we all know the government can spend your money better than you can. Silly goose!
Those two utterances are lies.
2. The government wants you to believe that the gigantic spending bill is “paid for.”
Unfortunately for them, the Congressional Budget Office says, “Not so fast, amigo. There’s a $3,000,000,000,000 addition to the national debt.
Another lie.
3. The government wants you to believe that energy dependence, massive inflation, massive spending, massive new taxes will be great for the economy.
The most preposterous lie of all.
Bottom line it, Big Red Car, you’re depressing me
Dear readers, we are getting ready to reap the whirlwind of bad policy and an incompetent leadership.
Can you see it otherwise? If so, tell me and spare me the misery that I see ahead.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car. Be well, amigos.
“Oh, my goodness. This sounds terrible. Who did this? Wait, it was me?”