.
The GOPe would likely be betting the entire election and the future of the party on that action. It would alienate a lot of folks — me for one.

BTW, the notion of “releasing” delegates is not as easy as one might be led to believe. Many state delegations have their own rules and it is based on whether a state is a “winner take all” state or not.

Winner take all states v proportionate states allocate ALL their delegates to the winner.

It gets very complicated because, as an example in a winner take all state, if my state were won by Cruz and I actually favored Trump I would then be able to ADD to DT’s #s when released.

Many of these rules have never been tested and I suspect it would set off a riot.

The RNC would likely have to be controlled by the GOPe to make this happen and right now that is not the case. Everybody working for the RNC could count on losing their job in the aftermath of this.

If it were to happen, I suspect it would be the death knell of the Republican candidate because he would not any state organizations to champion his actual election.

I doubt that Trump would have the organizational depth to mount a 3rd party campaign nor would he have the time.

Might as well anoint Bernie.

JLM
http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

So, let’s see: So, suppose the Donald (TD) reaches the Repub convention with 40% of the primary votes and second place has, say, 20%. So, then, presto, bingo, the GOPe claims that the delegates are released and, then, somehow, they all vote for Ryan. Why, the Koch brothers promise each delegate a visit at their chateau in Aspen or Jackson Hole?

Okay. Presumably the GOPe doesn’t just want Trump to lose but also wants Ryan to win. Tilt! Halt! Then, sure, TD just tells the GOPe an old quote: “We hang together or we hang separately.” Of course this means that to TD this little GOPe “presto, bingo” thingy means that the GOP did not treat TD “farily” so that, in response, TD runs as a third party candidate. E.g., maybe back at Wharton TD got a good grade on the test the week they covered decision trees and another good grade the week they covered game theory? I could believe that.

Then, sure, if TD runs as a third party candidate, there is only a small chance that TD gets a majority in the Electoral College but no chance that Ryan or the GOPe gets a majority in the Electoral College. Then, IIRC, the election goes into the House where, hmm, maybe Ryan wins, Or more likely Hillary wins. But with still some chance that TD wins — he could even pick up some Dem votes.

So, at the convention, TD with 40% of the Repub primary votes gets to tell the GOPe, “Want to win? I’m a loyal Republican. We together can beat that Wicked Witch from Chappaqua.” Or, TD says, “You have two choices: (1) Join with me and together we can win the White House and bring peace and order to the US (the GOPe might like that phrasing!). (2) Fight with me and likely give the White House to that Wicked Witch.”

Somehow I have to suspect that TD and his advisers and lawyers saw all of this well before TD and his wife came down the escalator at Trump Tower and announced. E.g., TD has been thinking about running for POTUS going back several elections.

Sure, if TD can get 50% in the Repub primaries, then he is a first ballot winner at the Repub convention. But if he enters the convention with just the high plurality he has now, then he may still win the Repub nomination, beat the Wicked Witch, and win the White House.

I’m not quite getting it: Just why is the GOPe so enamored with Paul Ryan over TD that they would work so hard to nominate Ryan and, then, stand such a big chance of both Ryan and TD losing to the Wicked Witch? Ryan has, what, some secret sauce?

E.g., TD can get huge crowds way up on their hind legs and excited to vote in November, while in the general population Ryan is nearly an unknown.

TD is no dummy: IMHO he is taking policy positions that would stand to get him a lot of Democrat votes.

Wow!

And supposedly the Omnibus spending bill he just pushed through permits the US to export crude oil.

Ah, so much for that. I have been trying to prove something. I’ve got a proof in Hilbert space and Banach space and of a special case in just a normed linear space but trying to see if I can get the rest of it proved in just a normed linear space. The result partly enables a partial solution to the old onerous over fitting problem.

Meanwhile, it’s just gorgeous:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtLoaMfinbU

If no one has a majority on the first vote at the convention the delegates are released from their commitments.

If that happens Paul Ryan will be drafted by the GOP. That was his quid pro quo for taking the speaker’s job.

.
Logic perfect. Too early. Carson disappears.

The pros already know it gets down to Trump, Rubio (Florida), Cruz.

In that threesome are a President and and a VP with Rubio being the likely VP candidate because of Florida.

It is still a little too early. Bush, however, is done. Stick a fork in him. The GOPe is angry.

BRC
http://www.themusingofthebigredcarcom

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151213-20151218/type/day

polling Republicans they get:

Donald Trump 30.6%
Ted Cruz 16.7%
Ben Carson 12.7%
Marco Rubio 8.4%
Jeb Bush 6.8%
Wouldn’t vote 6.5%
Mike Huckabee 4.6%
Carly Fiorina 3.8%
Rand Paul 3.6%
Chris Christie 3.3%
John Kasich 1.7%
Lindsey Graham 0.7%
George Pataki 0.4%
Rick Santorum 0.2%

Yes, the percentages add to 100%.

Taking the top 4, get

30.6
16.7
12.7
8.4
—-
68.4

So, for a scenario, if the top 4 stay in
the race and the rest drop out, then does
the leader get 50% or more? Let’s see:
Suppose the votes of the ones that drop
out are distributed to the top four in
proportion to their current votes, then
get

30.6 * 100 / 68.4 = 44.736,842,105
16.7 * 100 / 68.4 = 24.415,204,678
12.7 * 100 / 68.4 = 18.567,251,462
8.4 * 100 / 68.4 = 12.280,701,754

or

44.7368421053
24.4152046784
18.5672514620
12.2807017544
——————
100.0000000001

which do add to 100.

So, the top guy still gets only

44.74%

So, if Trump wants to “run the table”,
then he still has some work to do.

Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, etc.!

And in 2017 we will have a full NO funeral precession with trumpets, clarinets, and drums and with a coffin for PC!

.
Boss says, “Guilty. Guilty as charged. PC? Not going to happen. Not this life time.”

Happy Holidays, my friend!

BRC
http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

The Capitol Police did not mix words, “You fellas need to start using the ladies rooms. Sorry.”

http://themusingsofthebigredcar.com/housesenate-republicans-denied-access-to-mens-rooms/

BRC
http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com