Here is what is going to happen in 2024.
Economy
1. The economy is going to be good to insanely good. Inflation will bottom out. Interest rates will begin to tail downward. The stock market is going to the moon — 42,000 by Christmas.
The next Federal Reserve moves will be interest rate cuts.
That Biden inflation? Baked into the cake and never coming out. US inflation rate 2.5% by Labor Day, maybe Thanksgiving.
2. The electric vehicle hysteria will calm down and EVs will become something that will still happen, but at a more leisurely, realistic pace.
The Chinese will be the big winners in EVs because of their materials and manufacturing. It will all be about where the minerals come from and who makes the batteries.
Misguided US policy will push all the new jobs to China and it did not have to happen that way.
3. Car companies will step back from forecasts that saw the entire American fleet being EVs by next Thursday.
4. Tech is still going to be the play with artificial intelligence the new juice. It will become real. Web 3 — WTF is that?
Artificial Intelligence
1. AI will be the real deal, but it will be in actual processes. Every sort of techy/smart process from picking stocks to pharmacology will be enhanced by AI. It will filter into apps we use every day. You will read stuff never touched by human hands.
It is going to be huge in medicine — diagnosis, treatment plan, medicines, efficacy, and purchasing power.
2. The large learning model will be the play with trillions and trillions of bits of data being incorporated limited solely by computer reach and storage. It will be an explosion.
It will be the absolute end of privacy. Forever. What AI cannot find, they will invent.
3. AI will begin to poach on AI meaning newer AI will find itself scraping through older AI.
4. Huge legal issues related to copyrighted work that will be decided in favor of the copyright holders big time. We have seen this movie in the music business and it will be big, but inconsequential.
5. Of course bad guys will use AI for bad purposes. Duh. The fight between the doomsayers and the full speed ahead persons will be a non-issue by year end. The full speed ahead persons will prevail.
6. We sell cars in the US that can go 150 MPH and the speed limit is, what, 70? We can figure this out. Sort of like the bad uses for crypto. Baby. Bathwater.
Politics
Yikes! Hold onto your hat.
1. Donald J Trump will not win the election — he will not even be the Republican nominee — and we could have a bloody civil war over this. The forces of weaponized government and leftist juries/judges will hare lip the old boy. Sorry.
The Republicans will, however, win the White House (Donald Trump’s endorsement will be the kingmaker) and both houses of the US Congress. Huge wins in the Senate. Huge.
Can we trust the Republicans with that much power? No.
2. Joe Biden — who will have a serious health setback — will not win the election because he will not be the nominee. Neither will Kamala. It will be the slick haired politician from California whose running mate will be Mayor Pete or Gov Whitmer.
All of this is going to happen at the conventions and will look like it is natural, but it is all a scheme and the crock pot and air fryer are already in pre-heat mode.
Remember when you thought it impossible that the FBI was trying to overturn an election? Russian Dossier? Yeah, like that.
3. The Supreme Court will have the whip hand and will generally rule in Trump’s favor. There is a real chance the Sup Ct may rule there is no authority for a Jack Smith special/independent counsel. Hell, I predict they will rule thusly. It will take too long to save Trump.
4. If in the odd chance Trump is able to fit into his tuxedo, he will be dancing with Ben Carson — smart, he actually is a brain surgeon, calm, reasonable, and persuasive. Great sense of humor. Haha, he’s also black. Perfect Vice President and, then, President.
5. If Trump gets on the ballot, minorities in America will elect him. Big time. See how I hedged my bet?
6. This will be most expensive, most pissed off, most followed election in US history, and everybody whose candidate did not win will scream that the cheat was in and they will be right.
7. Hunter Biden throws in with DOJ/FBI and turns against the Biden family crime cartel. Rats out Joe, Jim, and Jill. Gets off with a slap on the wrist and returns to painting full time. Once Joe Biden is out of office, Hunter doesn’t sell a single painting. Huh?
Foreign Policy
Just a bloody mess.
1. The entire outcome in Ukraine will depend upon whether the US, Nato, the west support Ukraine. Already the sunshine patriot and the summer soldier are getting cold feet.
Poor Ukraine, so dependent upon the feckless United States and too close to Russia.
2. Russia will sue for peace by Labor Day. They will propose that everybody hold what they have leaving them with half of four oblasts and Crimea, but having a land bridge from Russia to Crimea.
Ukraine will counter with Russia getting half of the oblasts and Ukraine getting Crimea plus Russia picking up the tab to rebuild Ukraine.
There will be a ceasefire and the Russians may take the Ukrainian deal.
Ukraine can lose this war, but Russia cannot win it. The Russian military machine is substantially damaged and the myth of Russian invincibility is gone forever.
3. The Russian economy tanks. Inflation is rampant. Interest rates are massive. Energy prices fall. Ruble is toilet paper. Riots in the street over egg availability. Russia is a basket case by 4th of July.
This is Putin’s greatest vulnerability.
Businesses stolen by Putin cronies cannot run them like the original owners. McDonalds is McDonalds and “Vkusno & tochka” — the new brand for the stolen McDonalds which means “tasty and that’s it” isn’t.
Moscow residents used to line up around the block to get into McDonalds and there are no crowds for Vkusno & tochka.
Key insight: the world can live without Russia. Forever.
4. Russia will become India’s and China’s bitch gas station and will struggle to build pipelines from northern Russia to where those countries are — right now it all goes via ship and at a 30% discount to market.
5. The massive Russian misinformation/disinformation unseats Baghdad Bob as to idiocy and laughter. People laugh whenever Putin speaks about how well things are going.
6. The world begins to think about a permanent banishment of Russia to the North Korean Pop Warner League with BRICs and the other losers. Russia does not recover for at least a quarter of a century.
7. China’s economy — which is hurting if you haven’t been following things — continues to slide downward and they putoff their impending invasion of Taiwan — for now whilst they struggle economically.
8. Israel v Hamas ends with a lot of dead Hamas leaders and no idea how to govern Gaza. By year end, it is still a mess. Not a single Arab country steps in to assist with Gaza or to accept refugees.
Hezbollah is a pain in the ass, but there is no major war on the northern Israeli – Lebanon border.
9. The US and allies begin to bomb the snot out of the Houthis who are just Iranian stooges for attacking shipping.
Iran tickles the US tail and there is a major escalation, but ships get through the Red Sea safely by mid-year.
10. Everything Putin feared about Nato comes true as they are solidly on the border.
Culture
1. The culture pendulum swings right and wokeness’ sell by date appears. The warfare is more open and viscous, but common sense is re-discovered and slowly comes back into fashion.
2. DEI is exposed as a blunt object element of class warfare and not legit. Turns out killing all the Jews and eradicating Israel is against the Harvard Code of Conduct and that context doesn’t matter after all.
3. Ivy League schools take a major hit to the brand. Sales of polo shirts are way down. Gun sales are up. Lots of armed Jews. Worldwide, terrorists complain about “armed Jews.”
4. Sales of Palestinian flags — who made all those damn flags — skyrocket as American college students show lower and lower political IQ. Riots are scheduled using . . . wait for it . . . AI.
5. Supreme Court enacts “dick” ruling meaning if you have a dick you cannot shower with the chicas or play women sport. Turns out to be a small issue.
Testosterone back in fashion and there are regularly scheduled dick measuring contests and cock fighting is no longer outlawed.
6. Anti-Semitism runs rampant and no college in the US offers “Semite Classes.” Jews do not take it well and it is hard to be a Jewish college student at even the best schools in America.
Miscellaneous
1. New President discovers the US has a robust energy economy and says, “Drill, drill, drill!” Oil goes to $20/bbl and gasoline is $1.35/gal which also busts Russia.
Keystone Pipeline is back on, baby.
2. Seven of the 10,000,000 illegal aliens dispersed into the US by the Biden admin show up for their scheduled legal proceeding, but not until 2031.
3. Chicago goes bankrupt followed by the whole state of Illinois. They try to join Canada, but Canada says, “No, thank you.”
The beat goes on.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car. Call me on 31 December 2024.