I have yet to see much data on a Trump v Hillary race.

But: South Carolina has 50 delegates. Last I heard, Trump just won, uh, 50 delegates. So, in South Carolina Trump just beat Rubio and Cruz like “a rented mule”.

So, let’s see, first-cut, roughly, a lot details aside, Trump beats Rubio and Cruz who beat Hillary but somehow Trump does less well against Hillary than Rubio and Cruz? Hmm …

Oh, maybe in a Hillary race, Rubio would get R votes, Cruz would get C votes, and Trump would get T votes. Then maybe R + C > T. Okay. That is, Rubio and Cruz, if add their votes would do better against Hillary than Trump?

Gee, is there some place I can get some really good odds betting on Trump?

Today there is a video up at YouTube with Gingrich interviewed at Fox, and he has some perceptive remarks on Trump.

Rubio is vulnerable on his Gang of Eight involvement, his H1-B stuff, etc. And just today I saw what looked like his support of the effort “The New American Century”, that is, the Dick Cheney approach to foreign policy we saw at work in Iraq.

Cruz is vulnerable on his unreported loans from GS and Citi, the question of his being “native born”, and immigration. Maybe a lot of people on the right hand side of the Republican party like Cruz, but in the general election he’s too far to the right, would stand to do worse than Goldwater.

For Hillary, I’m doubting that she will get indited. The other things against Hillary may not hurt her too much in the general. Hillary is this and that, but she’s bright at politics. My guess is that Hillary would beat Cruz. Rubio? She’d patronize him and make him look silly. I really dislike Hillary, but that doesn’t convince me that she’s hopeless as a candidate.

IIRC, 60% of the Republican delegates will be selected by the end of March. At that point, Trump may have the nomination.

Everyone can see that if Trump goes to the convention with only 40% of the delegates, then he won’t win on the first ballot, and the other 60% may come together to back the GOPe’s favorite and win the nomination. So, to be safe, Trump should get his 51% of the delegates and win on the first ballot. He’s got a good shot at that. For more, maybe look at the winner take all states.

He doesn’t beat Hillary, but Cruz or Rubio does

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Said nobody cause it isn’t true. I don’t mean to be IR Reverant.

BRC
http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

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Yes, the “conventional wisdom” is, apparently, summering in Huatulco.

There is a whiff of inevitability about things. Then, again President Huckabee might give you an argument.

BRC
http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

But, if five months ago put all the pundits end to end, they still wouldn’t have reached the truth. TD was smarter than all of them put together. In NH, TD spent $3 million on ads, and the GOPe darling, it’s his turn now, his Mommy said so, spent $30 million — according to TD.

It appears that obviously TD has this and that wrong but still has one thing right — winning in the polls and, now, in the elections. So, maybe, actually, for winning, he doesn’t have much wrong. So, right, he gets crowds of 10,000+ up on their hind legs from speaking with mangled syntax using short sentences with a fourth grade vocabulary. Well, it’s working.

access –> axis?

2014 –> 2015?

http://themusingsofthebigredcar.com/donald-trump-the-junk-food-of-political-discourse/

BRC
http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com