The United States sent a handful of men — good men, but completely inexperienced in dealing with the Russians at this high level — from Trump 2.0 to Saudi Arabia to negotiate with the Russians about the war in Ukraine.
It is notable that Ukraine — sitting at the center of the fighting and the victim of Russian aggression — is not at the table discussing its fate. Neither is Nato nor the European Union or other close US allies. This is Trump 2.0 going it alone.
It is Trump 2.0 v the Putin stooges after a “long” and “good” call between Trump and Putin.
The Americans:
Secretary of State Marco Rubio (voted against a $6B aid package to Ukraine in 2024 as a US Senator from Florida),
National Security Adviser Michael Waltz (former Florida Congressman, Special Forces warrior chieftain, VMI graduate), and
Ambassador to the Middle East Steve Witkoff (real estate attorney, real estate developer, Trump pal of some time).
Witkoff became the first American official to visit the Russian Federation when he negotiated the exchange of American Marc Fogel for a Russian money launderer; and, he had a role in the Israel-Hamas cease fire negotiations. He’s considered to be shrewd and energetic.
Trump and Witkoff are professional and personal friends. Witkoff was playing golf with Trump during Assassination Attempt #2.
The Russians:
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (completely fluent in English and sarcasm), a crusty old son-of-a-bitch, spawn of the Devil himself, who was the Russian Ambassador to the United Nations for 10 years and has been the Foreign Minister for 21 years. He is a complete tool of the state and engages in whatever role Putin puts him in. He possesses zero initiative and cannot fart without checking with Putin.
Lavrov has had an active, leading role in every Russian foreign entanglement since Chechnya #2 including Georgia, Donbas, Crimea, Syria, and Ukraine. He is an unyielding asshole.
Yuri Ushakov, another Putin hardliner, who was Russian Ambassador to the United States for 10 years and who is now a Putin confidante. He is Putin’s Boy Blue.
What can we expect from the Russians, Big Red Car?
I suggest we look to the Minsk Agreements of 2014 and 2015.
To put this into context, the Russians and their Little Green Men in 2014 had just annexed Crimea and initiated fighting in the Donbas oblast of Ukraine. The Obama admin did nothing other than shooting off a “stern letter.”
The parties — called the Normandy Format or Protocol because the first meeting was in Normandy — were Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France. The United States and the United Kingdom did not participate.
Russia pretended it was a “mediator” continuing the pretense that the Little Green Men were actually not Russian soldiers though specific Russian units and equipment were identified.
So what happened, Big Red Car?
Well, the bottom line is it was all a headfake during which the Russians consolidated their control of Crimea via a faux referendum conducted under the watchful eye of the Little Green Men and consolidated their control of the Donbas region. In a gigantic surprise, Russia “won” the referendum whereafter Russia annexed Crimea.
Two agreements — Minsk I and Minsk II — were signed that called for a cease fire, withdrawal of troops, withdrawal of heavy weapons, an exchange of hostages, an exchange of prisoners of war, and a general amnesty for war crimes on both sides.
Donbas was proposed to be governed under a “special arrangement.”
Putin and Zelenskyy subsequently met face-to-face in 2019, 4 years after Minsk II, and nothing other than an exchange of POWs ever happened.
Clearly, the Russians had been going through the motions and were able to use the lure of negotiations to stiffen their position until February 2022 when they invaded Ukraine with a brutal, unprovoked invasion of almost the entire Russian army.
The Ukrainians did not play their role and turned out to be a highly competent army and continue to hold the mighty Russian bear at bay with western support.
This is what happens when you negotiate with the Russians. They steal your time.
Come on, Big Red Car, you sure?
After one day of negotiations in Saudi Arabia, it is clear from Lavrov’s agenda that the Russians want to normalize relations — primarily economic relations — with the United States, shed the economic sanctions, and have no intention of conceding anything to foster a spirit of compromise necessary to reach an agreement.
The Russians are sowing the seed that a battlefield peace will include the relief of all sanctions on Russia and the return to a pre-war acceptance of Russia in the family of civilized nations. [Listen to your enemies. This is actually what they want.]
The Trump admin for their part, has made some truly amateurish utterances — conceding the Ukrainians have to give up sovereign territory to achieve a peace — that raise red flags. I see no evidence that Trump 2.0 is a great negotiator. [On other policies, I am a Trump 2.0 acolyte, but on Ukraine, he is screwing the pooch. Needs to said.]
Bottom line it, Big Red Car, we’re going for a bikini wax
OK, dear reader, here it is and it isn’t pretty.
1. Unless the Russians decide to settle this on the golf course, the Americans are woefully outclassed as to talent-at-the-table. The Russians are masters at these kind of public negotiations.
I get why the Americans don’t want the Ukrainians, Nato, and the EU at the table. I really do, but it isn’t pragmatic.
2. There is no evidence that the Russians are willing to make any concession on anything and like Chechnya #1 and Chechnya #2, the Russians like to come back to the buffet line for seconds.
3. The result of Minsk I and Minsk II and the Normandy Format was a complete head fake. The Russians used the negotiations to solidify their position and then to ultimately invade. They essentially bought 8 years in which to prepare to invade Ukraine. They bided their time and when Biden was elected, they struck.
Remember Putin has been in power for three decades.
4. The Russians have abandoned their moronic justification for the February 2022 Ukraine invasion from “denazification of Ukraine” now to “halting the eastward spead of Nato.” This is a red flag, fellas.
5. This negotiation will not end well, will not be successful, and will allow the Russians to remain, rebuild, retrain, and re-equip its forces for a continued onslaught on Ukraine.
6. Clearly, the economic sanctions are hurting Russia and if Trump 2.0 in fact enables Drill, Baby, Drill the Russians are looking at a very bleak energy environment putting more pressure on an economy reeling from the sanctions and exhibiting trade difficulties (unable to get their Communist hands on semiconductors), high inflation, high interest rates, GDP compression, weak ruble, and no McDonald’s.
This is why the Russians are trying to refocus the negotiations on lifting the sanctions so the Russian economy does not implode.
7. The Russians have detected that the US under Trump 2.0 has zero desire to support Ukraine and that is a bloody, crying shame. Face it, the US has a very bad record on staying the course when things get sticky.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.