I wrote about the drift toward World War III here:
Drifting Into War
I think we are further along already. Let me share my concerns:
1. The North Koreans and the Russians have begun to cooperate at an increasingly higher troop level. NK is trading troops for cash, oil, food, and nuclear technology.
This active alliance in combat should be troubling as it also brings the Korean Peninsula into consideration.
One of the reasons NK is supposedly anxious to cooperate is to gain combat experience for its forces. They will undoubtedly sharpen up their graves registration capabilities.
2. The initial level of cooperation of 2-3,000 NK troops has now become 12,000 and there is serious discussion of it becoming 100,000. To put that into perspective, figure 15,000 men is equivalent to an American division.
Given that the NKs are more likely to be combat arms troops — infantry, in this instance — this is actually more like 10 divisions, a substantial force.
Russian casualties have been very high and this infusion of additional bayonet strength — even if not particularly effective — solves a critical problem for the Russians and their manpower problems in the short term.
Reports out of Russia — Russian sources — indicate a casualty level (KIA and WIA) of 1,000 men per day and an addition to their conscript army of 20,000 recruits per month. Obviously, this is not a winning equation. This is why Putin wants NK troops.
3. Kim Jong Un, the Supreme Leader of North Korea, is charging $2,000 per month for each soldier making this a lucrative project. Putin also sent Kim a signing bonus of 1,000,000 barrels of Russian crude oil.
NK has an army reported to be 1,280,000 men strong with some clear voids in capabilities such as air defense.
These soldiers are reported to be drawn from North Korea’s best troops, its 11th Corps also known as the Storm Corps. They are described — by North Korea — as special operations troops trained to high standards of pain and suffering.
The NK army has not had any recent combat experience, a condition that is fatal to the performance of senior NCOs and company grade officers. The general officer corps of North Korea has zero large scale operational experience though it is highly unlikely the Russians will entrust the leadership of large scale units to NK generals.
Good troops poorly led are not an effective fighting unit. They will be going up against a battle hardened Ukrainian army that has had no problem dealing with the Russian army. I suspect the NKs will be far more disciplined than the Russian army, particularly the recently conscripted Russian army.
4. Russia is increasing its missile and drone attacks of all kinds — duplicating their last winter strategy of destroying as much electrical infrastructure as they can to make the Ukrainians freeze in the cold — but the biggest news is their use of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). To date, they have relied upon field artillery type missiles, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, and guided bombs.
An ICBM can deliver either a conventional or nuclear warhead.
The use of an ICBM is totally unnecessary from a capabilities perspective and raises a gigantic problem: How do we tell the difference between a nuclear tipped ICBM and a conventional one?
Make no mistake the Russians intended this to be a wake call to Ukraine’s supporters as they notified the Pentagon before they unleashed the weapon.
5. Russia engages in a faux debate wherein they publish their “nuclear doctrine.” The real nuclear doctrine is whatever the fuck Putin says it is. This is just coercion and blackmail. Back in September, the Russians spat out this gem:
“Russia could launch nuclear weapons in response to an attack on its territory by a non-nuclear-armed state backed by a nuclear-armed one.”
This scenario — “the non-nuclear-armed state backed by a nuclear-armed one” is exactly the condition that exists today with Ukraine being the “non-nuclear armed state” and the US being the “nuclear-armed one.”
It is brought into tighter focus with the recent Biden permission for the Ukrainians to use ATACMS to strike 300 km into Russia. This range exposes a lot of Russian infrastructure, supply dumps, ammo dumps, critical supply handling capabilities, headquarters, missile launching pads, and troops to Ukrainian fire.
Putin, who has erected and ignored numerous nuclear red lines, has again reiterated this supposedly new policy. Most people think it’s more of his nuclear bluff. He also expanded the umbrella of Russian territory to include Belarus, his only European ally.
7. The continuum looks like this:
In September Putin announces new Russian nuclear doctrine.
Biden tells Ukraine they can use long range ATACMS and they do to good result.
Putin re-announces “new” Russian nuclear doctrine.
Russian fires off an ICBM — same delivery system as a nuke.
You can’t like that progression.
6. The situation in the Middle East is now more dicey with Israel and Iran trading blows with Israel undertaking a fierce retaliatory strike at the Iranian homeland. The US admonished the Israelis not to strike Iranian nuclear facilities — why is a mystery to me — but the Israelis, it was just revealed, knocked the crap out of a couple of Iranian nuke facilities.
Iran continues to use proxies and to fling stand off weapons of which only a pittance pierce Israel’s air defenses.
It is currently Iran’s turn in this tit-for-tat duel as Israel had the last at bat.
One would imagine that the election of Donald Trump and his re-invigoration of the Iranian sanctions (relaxed and not enforced by the Biden admin) has the Ayatollah concerned about timing.
What does the Trump election mean as it relates to WWIII?
I am of two minds:
1. Trump being elected means the Israel – Iran conflict will tilt in Israel’s direction. Where the Biden admin tried to twist Israel’s arm into a cease fire (driven by election considerations, let’s be honest here), Trump will provide full throated support and there will be no more arms and ammunition blackmail.
Trump will reinvigorate the Iran oil sanctions which will crush the Iranian oil income and really, really, really piss off China who has been the beneficiary of cheap Iranian oil. I don’t think Trump cares.
Given this support and Iran’s faltering economic vigor, I think Israel cleans up quite a bit of the Middle East which means they wipe out Hamas and Hezbollah. Big winner here is the country of Lebanon.
When this is done, then the world is confronted with the same question it has faced for years — WTF to do with the Palestinians (who nobody wants) and Gaza?
2. Trump ran on the promise of resolving the Ukrainian conflict before Inauguration day.
Clearly, Putin is trying to initiate peace talks. He has openly pleaded for US led peace talks with the chat being amongst the US, Russia, and Ukraine. He did not invite NATO and I suspect Trump does not feel compelled to include them.
The Russians want to keep Crimea and their land bridge to Crimea from Russia (southest Ukraine). [In other news, the men in Hell were clamoring for ice water this morning.]
Ukraine wants to trade their recent incursion into Russia toward Kursk for those lands.
Somebody has to pay to rebuild Ukraine. Ukraaine can’t and doesn’t care who does.
The future of Ukraine as a non-aligned buffer state, or a member of NATO, or some hybrid protectorate is in the balance. It is hard to imagine that Ukraine does not get a serious look at joining NATO given recent addition of Sweden and Finland.
Putin is going to want to rejoin the community of civilized nations and to cast off all trade restrictions as if he’d been to Confession, performed his Penance, and received Absolution. The Europeans are stupid enough to do this as they still want cheap energy. Russia, under Putin, as part of the community of civilized nations is a huuuuuuuuuge mistake.
Trump has no reservations about Ukraine sacrificing territory and Putin knows this. Trump would also be content to continue the war if the economic burden were shouldered more fully by the other NATO countries. Putin knows this also.
3. The negotiations with Russia will be impacted by the price of oil. There is every likelihood that the US — meaning Trump — will drive the price of oil and natural gas back to the $20-40/bbl level as Trump unleashes the power of the American oil industry. That will be a killing blow to Russia and Iran.
The Russian government’s wartime spending in Ukraine is 32% of Russian GDP. [Footnote: I wouldn’t believe anything coming out of Russia. If they are reporting Russian wartime spending as 32% of GDP, it must be far more.]
This means that the civilian economy has actually contracted by a similar amount as two years ago Russia had no wartime spending as there was no war.
I personally believe the Russians are on the edge of an economic collapse and only high oil revenues allow it to continue.
Bottom line it, Big Red Car, we have to repair a hot water heater
Be careful, dear reader. I suppose the bottom line is this: We are drifting closer and closer to the threshold at which a small, a very small, error of judgment could trigger a nuclear exchange. Putin is becoming more desperate and running out of options while continuing to punish Ukraine.
Donald J Trump is sincere in his desire to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but the gap between the warring parties is not going to be easy to bridge. Trump will be clever in the negotiations and he will not roll over, but he will make concessions to get a deal done.
I personally do not support Trump’s peace gambit particulary if it is “peace at any cost.” I think we should force down the price of oil and bleed the Russians dry, but I also don’t want to go to sleep every night on the precipice of a nuclear exchange.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a bloody Big Red Car. Have a great weekend. Watch some college football and basketball — it’s that magic time of year. Enjoy.