06/5/20

The Trump Recovery

The May Jobs Report contained some staggering, incredible, unexpected data.

 1. Jobs in the USA in May surged by 2,500,000 after having declined by 20,700,000 in April.

Economists had been expecting a loss of 8,000,000 jobs. Instead, net new jobs were 2,500,000 meaning the economists were off by more than 10,000,000 jobs.

 2. Unemployment dropped from 14.7% to 13.3% whilst the economists were looking for a 19% unemployment rate.

This is the beginning of a substantial recovery and the economy is only starting to re-open. It is a Hell of a start.

I place extra emphasis on the unemployment number falling below 10% as it kills all comparisons to the Great Depression and small improvements will have huge impact. We would also be within 6% of the pre-COVID19 numbers. Keep you eye on this baby.

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04/3/20

Paycheck Protection Program Interim Report Card — A+++

Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin said he would get money to eligible persons as soon as possible.

“My name is Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin and I have money for YOU! Come on down, amigos. Get some. Get yours. Let’s get busy.”

But, of course, he’s the “government” and — yawn — who believes the GOVERNMENT?

First day report:

Loans made — 1,926 (as of today at 11:00 AM EST)

Funds disbursed — $756,985,761

Participating lenders — 245 banks

This element of the rescue is dealing with Main Street not Wall Street and your Big Red Car has to say: “Well played, Federal Government. Well played, Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin. Well played indeed!”

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