Tag Archives: labor force participation rate

08/4/18

Employment Structural Change

Big Red Car here on a Saturday morning getting ready to go out for blueberry pancakes at the Counter Cafe.

I have always been interested in delving beneath the covers of employment in the United States. The average person focuses on BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) U-3 – the widely reported level of unemployment which is currently at 3.9%, but that paints a very shallow picture of the employment status of the economy. Perhaps, an overly optimistic one.

Let me give you the bottom line first – the US economy is undergoing a huge structural change as the Baby Boomers begin to retire and younger folk have a different attitude toward employment.

I have often observed that the prospect of long term, stable employment is a thing of the past and the “gig” economy is here to stay. Talking to you, Mr. Internet.

My favorite source of useful data and analysis is dshort.com which is run by Doug Short, PhD, under the banner of Advisor Perspectives. You should be reading this guy’s stuff. The best in the business.

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06/7/18

Employment

Employment, Big Red Car – what about employment?

Dear reader, US employment and unemployment are both headed in the right direction, but there is a concern we need to discuss.

We need to discuss the Labor Force Participation Rate. Do you know what that means?

The LFPR is the percentage of folks aged 16-64 (the labor force) who are currently employed or seeking work.

Here is a picture of what that looks like today with our 3.8% unemployment rate. Notice, in particular, the comparison between our current LFPR/unemployment rate and the Jan-Apr 2000 all time high LFPR. Therein lies the story.

LFPR

Credit Doug Short over at Advisor Perspectives for this great chart. Read his stuff at dshort.com.

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01/27/15

Let’s Cut the Crap — Unemployment

Big Red Car here on a glorious ATX day — sun is up and bright and going to be 75F today. No snow in the forecast. Hahaha — get it, New York? [The Big Red Car can be downright cruel at times. Shut up, Big Red Car.]

So, the Big Red Car is perplexed at how ignorant people can be as to how unemployment figures are derived. We focus on some fiction called “U-3” from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

So, today we cut the crap on how unemployment information is manipulated — YES, MANIPULATED. Continue reading →

06/6/14

Labor Force Participation Rate at 38-year LOW

Big Red Car here. Well The Boss got the garage cleaned out, so now your Big Red Car can sleep in security inside the garage. But, wait, the Lexus SUV (a pampered bitch if ever there was one) is going to be getting first dibs on the new sleeping quarters. Life is not fair! But, hey, I love it anyway cause I get to commune with nature and all that jazz.

So The Boss turned a bit serious today when having a hot dog with one of his buddies. They ate at Man Bites Dog, said it was very good. Continue reading →