By now the Sunnis are at least partly, maybe heavily, ISIS.

And, of course, Iran is Shiite.

So, it’s the 500+ year old Shiite-Sunni war. And, as in Iraq, with the Kurds, it’s another three way civil war.

As Kissinger said about the Iraq-Iran war (Saddam was Sunni), “Too bad they can’t both lose” or some such. Well, in Syria, they, likely all three sides, are.

At least this time, the US isn’t losing much. Good.

I’ve lost patience with the Shiite-Sunni wars. It appears that the only peace they can have is the grave.

What the heck is going on? I.e., it appears that there are tens of millions of suffering civilians and, among the leaders, plenty of bad guys but few or no good guys.

I very much do not like Obama, e.g., for his immigration policy, bowing to the leaders of China, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and France, his climate change alarm-ism, his over active EPA, etc. Otherwise, on nearly all issues, I see Obama as doing a little to get a headline and then doing nothing or nearly so.

And on Syria he has done nothing or nearly so, but, in this case, I agree with him.

My take on Syria: The core problem is Islam. In some of the Islamic countries, Islam runs everything — education, dress codes, social roles and norms, marriages, diet, architecture, the media, the legal system, foreign policy, the government, religion, everything. It’s all they have.

And that Islam comes in two versions, and the two versions fully agree on their most important interest — send their young men to kill off the others, put the excess women in harems, and keep them pregnant.

The Shiites and Sunnis have been that way for 500+ years; it’s all they know; and they are not going to change soon. It’s just what they long have done and still do.

The US tried to give Iraq a constitutional, secular, parliamentary democracy, but as soon as the US started to leave, Iraq went back to their old Shiite-Sunni wars with the Kurds also on the side.

Iran is close to the Iraqi Shiites, maybe about to unify with the south-eastern part of Iraq, and ISIS grew up among the Sunnis.

What can Russia do in Syria? Sure, in the rebel areas, bomb the leadership. If that doesn’t calm down the anti-Assad side, then bomb everything that is not a tent or a camel. If that doesn’t work, then bomb the tents and camels.

This Russian effort will involve defeating over half, maybe 80%, of the Syrian population. If killing everything but the people and livestock doesn’t work, then the effort will kill them. Then the Assad side will have what it wants.

Net, the Alawite-Shiites, Iran, and Russia will get control of the rebel areas, maybe quite short on rebels, buildings, people, camels, or even tents.

This is bloody business, and, for whatever reason, Obama or otherwise, net, the US has no stomach for that business — good.

There might be other implications, e.g., Syria, Russia, and Iran taking over also the Sunni areas of Iraq and, thus, giving Iran a 100% Shiite path from the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.

There might be implications for Israeli security — e.g., from Syria, Iran could scream “Death to Israel” and fire nuclear bombs at Israel.

The Shiites and Iran would have control over much more of the oil. Then Iran might go after the rest of the Persian Gulf oil. There might be a nuclear war with Saudi Arabia.

But how could Syria, Russia, and Iran get the Iraqi and Syrian Sunnis to quiet down? Sure, just the way the US refused to do — kill off all or nearly all the rebels, men, women, children, “flocks and herds”, etc. Wouldn’t be the first time in history.

What should the US do? (1) Gather as much intelligence as possible. (2) Watch carefully. (3) Do not try to bring Islam forward several hundred years to the 19th, 20th, or 21st centuries. (4) Act only after very, Very, VERY careful deliberation with all details rock solid and then act as we did in Gulf War I, help Israeli security, partition the Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds, grab a lot of the oil, and otherwise LEAVE that place

The Syrian Civil War will result in more than a third of a million dead, 1.5MM wounded, 4MM refugees fleeing the country, 6.5MM refugees internally displaced, and the victory of Bashar al-Assad with the assistance of the Russians and Iran.

It did not have to be so.

http://themusingsofthebigredcar.com/syrias-civil-war-a-monumental-american-foreign-policy-cockup/

BRC
http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com