Russian Casualties

It is difficult to get a handle on Russian casualties in the Ukraine – Russo War. According to the Muscovys, they have lost two dozen men, but they have mobilized more than 500,000 men in addition to their normal twice a year drafts.

According to the Ukrainians, the Russians have lost 350,000 men.

Wagner losses as a gauge

We have a slightly more accurate insight into the magnitude of losses with recent utterances from the Chief Thug of the Wagner Private Military Company Yevgeny Prigozhin — yes, the thug who marched on Moscow with his barbaric henchpersons in rebellion and who was subsequently banished to Belarus.

Barbaric thug, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder and leader of the Wagner Private Military Company

[Side note: Prigozhin is a sophisticated disinformation practitioner and started an internet hacking entity to meddle in American elections. He is an information warrior whilst Putin is archaic in his approach and prefers to simply ban or eliminate the media.]

 1. Prigozhin admits to 22,000 KIA (killed in action) as of May 2023. Current estimates peg this number at 24,000 as the fighting continued until the end of May.

 2. Prigozhin states there were 44,000 wounded in action (WIA) as of the same date that is currently extrapolated to 48,000.

The fighting around Bakhmut where almost all of the Wagner casualties were incurred ended for the Wagnerites at the end of May when they began to pull out and turn over their positions to the regular Orc army.

This would put Wagner total combat losses at 72,000 KIA/WIA.

 3. Prigozhin further states that the Wagner fighting force in Ukraine was 78,000 men of which 39,000 men were criminals recruited from Russian jails in return for having their sentences terminated and their record expunged.

If one is to believe the Chief Thug, then 72,000 of 78,000 soldiers were either KIA or WIA. The WIA may or may not return to service.

The fuzzy maths

Now, the numbers get a little fuzzy. After the failed rebellion, Putin put the Wagnerites on notice they had three options:

 1. Sign contracts with the regular Orc army and be assimilated into their ranks where the pay is not as good as it was in the Wagner ranks;

 2. Be exiled to Belarus with their leader, Prigozhin, for an unknown mission; or,

 3. Retire from the fray and go home.

Prigozhin claims there are 25,000 men on the rolls of Wagner of which 10,000 have redeployed to Belarus and 15,000 are on home leave.

The Orc leadership claims 33,000 former Wagnerites have signed contracts with the Muscovy army.

What’s the real maths, Big Red Car?

Obviously, these numbers do not foot, but they could be close. Here’s what I see:

 1. If you started with 78,000 men and lost 24,000 KIA you had 54,000 men from which we subtract 48,000 leaving 6,000 able bodied men plus 48,000 WIA (not all will return to duty, but many will).

 2. Prigozhin says he has 10,000 soldiers in Belarus and 15,000 on home leave. There are still men who are WIA and their ultimate disposition is unresolved.

This number of 25,000 men (10,000 + 15,000) sort of correlates with the reported 25,000 men who marched on Moscow before abandoning the rebellion.

 3. The Orcs claim 33,000 men have signed on with their regular army. I am skeptical of this number, but then again it is Russia, no?

The big variable we have no real info on is how many Wagnerites are WIA and still recovering?

I have gone to this trouble to show you how confusing the numbers are because I believe they are typical of the bigger picture — confusing, but enlightening all the same.

Bottom line it, Big Red Car

Wagner combat losses are an excellent gauge for how many men have been lost by the Russians.

 1. Wagner started with 78,000 men.

 2. Wagner lost KIA 24,000 men — a KIA rate of 31%.

 3. Wagner lost WIA 48,000 men — a WIA rate of 62%. This ratio of 2:1 WIA:KIA is consistent with what one would expect in this type of combat.

 4. Total casualties KIA/WIA (disregarding MIA/POW) were 72,000 men of 78,000 for a casualty rate of 92.3%.

 5. The Wagner unit did not just withdraw from the fight; they were rendered combat ineffective and exist as a fighting force only on paper.

If these casualty figures are typical of the rest of the Orc army, the Russians are slowly grinding their army into nothingness. Bravo and well played!

If the West does not get wobbly, there is a real chanced to defang a nuclear armed Russia and to eliminate a gigantic threat to world peace. Obviously, Putin does not survive this. I predict he does not make it to Christmas.

But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car!