Comments on: Revolutions Are Not Bloodless

By: JLM

JLM — Wed, 16 Mar 2016 20:29:00 +0000

In reply to Really?.

.
It cuts both ways. When Trump gets Cruz one-on-one, it may hurt Cruz rather dramatically. Thus far, Trump is way ahead on points and has left a long trail fo bodies behind him.

Frankly, America does not want or need a conservative. It wants and needs a no bullshit leader.

Could be wrong.

BRC
http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

By: Really?

Really? — Wed, 16 Mar 2016 18:49:00 +0000

In reply to JLM. I believe that in the 40 days from last primary to convention first vote all non-Trump votes will consolidate. This is the deal makers phase and I agree all trump delegates will hold on to Trump regardless of how many vote it takes. Also I think Cruz will do better going forward than he has so that the gap is less. Thought you would like this

By: JLM

JLM — Wed, 16 Mar 2016 17:31:00 +0000

In reply to Really?.

.
The math is not quite what you show but it is close enough. As an example, Trump has 691 delegates with 1,013 left available.

Here is a really good reference on from whence the delegates come.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml

On the first round, everyone is bound. It is only AFTER the first round that anyone has any authority to deviate from their original pledge.

The Trumpists are unlikely to abandon their man. They are revolutionaries.

There are only 114 unaligned delegates.

There is no question that the math is daunting.

BRC
www,themusingsofthebigredcar.com

By: Really?

Really? — Wed, 16 Mar 2016 16:38:00 +0000

So, clearly not a Trump or NASCAR fan here but let’s look at math
Trump delegates – 646
Non Trump Delegates – 708 (397-TC, 169- MR, 142-JK)
Then the 15% party delegates
Seems unlikely to change significantly so Unless THE Donald get the 1237 he faces a first round loss. He can run independent but Get no FEC funding or face time on media.
Just the rules and math!

By: Lightning In A Bottle (Niche-Movement-Mainstream) | Points And Figures

Lightning In A Bottle (Niche-Movement-Mainstream) | Points And Figures — Wed, 16 Mar 2016 16:18:30 +0000

[…] As my friend Jeff Minch accurately describes, the first real manifestation of the wave was the Tea Party in 2009. Obama was elected as a transformational President. Almost immediately he showed his true colors with the stimulus package. Americans were outraged. The stimulus failed of course. […]

By: pointsnfigures

pointsnfigures — Wed, 16 Mar 2016 15:01:00 +0000

Good analysis. I will do a similar blogpost differently. At SXSW, there was a presentation on how to find trends that will become movements. They start out in fragments. Eventually, they start to form a wave that the establishment is disgusted by, or fights. Then, they overwhelm.

Hip Hop is a movement like that. It started out as independent house music in the black community. Eventually you saw fragments of it in language, dress, attitude etc. The existing industry tried to keep it under wraps-but instead, new producers rose up and were successful. The existing industry tried to co-opt it with fakes, but people saw through it.

If we look at politics, it was before the Tea Party. That was the wave forming. Jesse Ventura getting elected in pure blue MN; Schwarzenegger in CA, the election of successful businesspeople to political office in IL, WI and FL. Those were early signs. Bloggers blogging against crony capitalism also were a sign of the wave. Bernie Sanders support is also evidence of this wave.

My bet is GOPe will try to take over the convention. Trump will overwhelm them. Some of GOPe will splinter and back Hillary in a last ditch effort to retain control. Remember, 12% of GOP voted for Obama because they thought he wasn’t a redistributionist hard left liberal. They drank the Kool Aid and thought he was pragmatic. Even the rise of Obama predicated the rise of Trump. He was supposed to cut deficits and be a transformational President.

Trump will overwhelm them all. It’s the culmination of a huge wave crashing on the beach. The establishment and elites will not like it. It’s never pretty when the peasants rise up against authority. But , Scott Adams is correct. It’s going to be a landslide. The more they fight, the bigger it will be.

The rise of Reagan was similar, but it was more buttoned down. Imagine what Reagan would look like today with the ubiquitous media.

By: JLM

JLM — Wed, 16 Mar 2016 00:05:00 +0000

In reply to Really?.

.
I think your first paragraph is a little unrealistic — what did you expect him to accomplish? He was counted out from the beginning as a novelty candidate, one gaffe from extinction. Now, he is the leader in the clubhouse and takes Florida from its favorite son.

We campaign in poetry, we govern in prose. But, candidates tap into emotion to create supporters. Trump has proven his ability to do just that.

One does not get to turn the tiller on the aircraft carrier unless one gets elected.

Your comments in regard to CMOs are brilliant.

BRC
http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

By: Really?

Really? — Tue, 15 Mar 2016 18:31:00 +0000

Both Blog and post are good reads, My challenge in this is what has Trump accomplished? He has gotten the angry to get off their couch, he has mastered Earned media in a political campaign, he has gotten the media to focus on a canceled event over a failed debate that left him looking clueless as to issues and solutions.
Why do CMOs not make it to the CEO chair? Media is a trained seal, throw a fish and it will jump. The other functions in any company are more self assured and have minds of their own.
So separate the race from the leadership required to turn this aircraft carrier.
A more appropriate movie line may be from the worst movie ever, Waterworld, where the captain fires up the masses on the deck of the ship with lies and promises, throws out some SPAM and cigarettes and they go back to rowing. Then turning to his first mate says “of course non of that is true but they will row for weeks before noticing”

By: sigmaalgebra

sigmaalgebra — Sun, 13 Mar 2016 21:23:00 +0000

In reply to JLM.

Thx.

Yup, it’s general: The rest of politics, holding the reins, with their hands on the switch, are going batshit crazy. They are dinosaurs. Really, what it’s threatening is their livelihood, their jobs. It’s threatening the way that they do things. They should be tearing down their campaigns right now and rebuilding using Trump’s model. They will be sitting on their ass in July watching Trump win the Republican nomination and, IMHO, on their ass in November watching Trump win the White House with Melania as First Lady.

Some good writers for that movie!

By: JLM

JLM — Sun, 13 Mar 2016 20:46:00 +0000

In reply to sigmaalgebra.

.
Your comment was better than the blog post.

BRC
http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com