“This is what it would look like if we were purposely thinning the herd, no?”
Should just about do it, unfortunately as you note the increase in social “safety net” costs will create chaos…

“It is easily one of the worst ideas ever formed. ”
Sums it up perfectly. Thanks for posting.

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Great points all. I suspect behind the scenes much of the brainpower is the nascent hippies of our times who are now in the position of power and think — “Hey, a bit of pot didn’t hurt me, right?”

There is no question that the pot market will become over sold and $400-500 per ounce is not going to prevail beyond the novelty stage. Medical marijuana — a pretty good head fake if nothing else — is still priced at $200-250 per ounce.

In addition, this is a price point at which the “competiton” — the illegal competition — is simply going to compete on price. These chaps do not play nice and they have guns. Nobody is really thinking about this aspect right now.

I also suspect that the manner in which pot is packaged — loose — will quickly morph into something different that will take the focus off the cost per weight. It will be no time before cigarette makers are simply making marijuana cigarettes. This is after all how it is often actually used.

The costs of enforcement and the social safety net costs will ultimately overwhelm the incremental revenue. That is a safe prediction.

The potency of modern marijuana is really something. It is 10+x as powerful as legacy illegal marijuana. The “one hit high” is a reality. People are going to become much, much more intoxicated and a bit of marijuana is going to go a long way.

BRC
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Interesting point–legalized gambling may well be the forerunner of leaglized pot–disproportionate effect on poor and middle-class, addiction balanced against increased tax revenues, massive state regulation schemes to restrict access–I used to be an income tax preparer and had two compulsive gamblers for clients–they most emphatically did not look like the folks in the casino ads! Very scary folks.
With pot, what I think will happen is the market will become oversaturated quickly unless the states restrict supply by restricting outlets, as they do for liquor and casinos; if the market is too large prices and thus tax revues drop–many of the assumptions used by state governments for revenue projections assume pot will not drop in price, while many economists argue that the price will likely drop about 80% once the transaction cost imposed by its illegality disappears. A state would also have to have a much more robust enforcement mechanism to keep illegal pot out so that the legal–that is, taxed–pot remains a source of income–it’s not unlike booze, and I imagine that only large corporations like tobacco and liqour companies will make money.
Since my own drugs of choice are restricted to caffeine, red wine, scotch and bourbon, and reading Musings of the Big Red Car, I am not directly concerned. But it’s an interesting issue–I can see why jeff is “morbidly fascinated” by it.

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The States think there is a near term revenue windfall but have not taken into consideration the impact on the social safety net.

I will predict that for every dollar of incremental revenue there will be $4 of additional costs somewhere.

More and more people detached from reality cannot be a good thing for any society. This is what it would look like if we were purposely thinning the herd, no?

BRC
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If anyone really thought that marijuana would wean folks from meth, I would be beating the bass drum and handing out samples.

What is more likely is that widespread use of marijuana will lead to lowered inhibitions and the desire to try something a bit grander — crack, coke, heroin, meth.

I attended a memorial for a fine young man from a fine family whose introduction to heroin came on the buzz of marijuana. It — the introduction — and the young man were both short lived. An enormous tragedy.

BRC
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Actually, I can understand the attraction of pot over meth–I live next to the meth captial of Missouri, jefferson County–how people can consume stuff made of a whole bunch of indutrial chemicals and made in someone’s garage is completely beyond me! Best–

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Having known each other at a similar age, I can actually understand and appreciate that answer. I personally can’t get over the delivery mechanism — hot gaseous carcinogenic smoke.

Old? Not likely. Wise? Perhaps.

Be well, BR.

BRC
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I raise some of the same issues when students advocate it–why, I ask, do we need one more way to be disconnected from the world around us? They usually do not have much of an answer besides “well, it’s better than booze.” To me, not much of a response. But perhaps we are just too old. You really ought to read Emily Brady’s book–best, Mike