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I don’t mean to imply that the Iranians are going to go to war with the Israelis. They likely may but Israel has nothing much to fear in actual combat. It is the widening of such a war that threatens Israel.

They are likely to spill over into Iraq on a tribal basis — Shia v Sunni.

I don’t think we can count on Iran being rational while in the hands of the Ayatollahs.

BRC
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Iran is not going to get into a land war with Israel so I’m not seeing a tactical target. I don’t think the Iranians are willing to sacrifice their 10 largest cites to use them in a strategic manner. You’re talking about a minimal credible deterrence (N-deterrence) rather than MAD.

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Big difference was it was the USA v the USSR and we had the hypothesis of MAD (mutual assured destruction), and an intercontinental faceoff.

The Iranians are likely to use nuclear weapons as a theater weapon rather than an intercontinental weapon.

The same potential exists with Pakistan v India once we leave Afghanistan and the Taliban or Al Qaeda gets their hands on Pakistani nukes.

BRC
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“Whatever the Iranians get will ultimately be used.”

We said that about the Soviets too.

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Not to get ahead of ourselves, but there is no reason to actually penetrate to the levels of the facilities themselves though I think there are ways to do just that.

The plan will be to turn off the power to those facilities and to close the entrances permanently with the critical nuclear scientists inside.

If the Israelis can knock out the power plants and seal off the entrances they are then left with the possibility of killing the first responders thereby further degrading the possibilities of rescuing the brains below ground.

It is a brutal calculus but the results speak for themselves.

As to American involvement, we have drawn another red line and we will be involved either at the altar of sacrificing any limited fleeting credibility we currently possess or in the aftermath of the first mushroom cloud over the Middle East.

Whatever the Iranians get will ultimately be used. There will be no nuclear detente. It is only a matter of time.

BRC
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Some of these facilities are several hundred feet underground and there are like a dozen of them. This is no quick hit on a soft target. This is many sorties and likely blue team casualties.

I agree the US will not get involved (nor should they).

IMO Iranian nuclear weapons are inevitable and there is nothing the Israelis or the US can do to stop them short of occupying the country.

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All points well taken. Israel has been planning its re-fueling process for decades. They can do this in their sleep. The expertise and capabilities are quantum orders of magnitude better than even 2007.

Saudi Arabia may let the Israelis use their runways let alone their airspace. The Saudis have the wind in their noses about Iran.

With the US out of Iraq, the Iraqis will never know whether the Israelis overfly their airspace and if they do, the Iraqis cannot do anything meaningful about it.

The BRC favors the northern route coming across the lake. Look it up. There are ‘Stans who would allow the Israelis to use their airspace. Maybe even an airport to two.

From “feet dry” to the bomb sites will be less than 5 minutes. Watch the northern route.

BRC is picking sides and favors the Israelis. The US is going to do nothing.

BRC
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It may happen, but it may be beyond Israel’s strategic capability.