Before I publish my 2023 predictions, let’s put a red pen to how the Big Red Car did in 2022, shall we?
The economy, in general, will be a mixed bag filled with dangerous sharp-edged objects that will require careful and cautious handling. CORRECT
1. GDP growth will be consistently lower than 2% for the entire year. The post-Pandemic Dead Cat Bounce is over. CORRECT
We will print two quarters at ZERO growth and it will feel like we have an ulcer, a bleeding ulcer, but tech will continue to roll up impressive gains. CORRECT/WRONG
Be long QQQ or TQQQ <<< no, Hell no, don’t take investment advice from a bloody car. You’re smarter than that. WRONG
2. We will experience double digit inflation by the end of March 2022. Inflation will be 12% by the time of the mid-term elections in November. INFLATION DID NOT CRACK DOUBLE DIGITS, BUT IT WAS SUBSTANTIAL. CLOSE
Producer Price Index, reported monthly, will routinely be at more than 10%. CLOSE
Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen will look like the moron she is and nobody will have a real answer that does not involve incredible pain. CORRECT
The Fed will go into pain mode and the Biden admin will blame the pain on the Fed, Trump, and the Republicans as well as “greedy” bankers. CORRECT
3. We will continue to have a weird labor market — low unemployment, oddly low Labor Force Participation Rate, far more vacant jobs than folks to fill them but a skill mismatch, dramatically higher wages that will become a big driver of inflation but will not keep pace with inflation thereby shoplifting buying power, WFH will become a more important attraction whilst big companies hate it, and there will be a lot of “quits” wherein workers leave a good job for a great job. CORRECT
Employers will come up with a myriad of goofy ways to attract, inspire, and retain labor, but none of it will work like running a good shop, talking to the folks, and paying well. CORRECT
4. The supply chain crisis will disappear by the end of March and turn out to have been a non-event. Freight charges will not come back to earth. WRONG, though international container freight has returned to pre-Pandemic levels.
Walmart will develop its own navy, the Walmart Navy. CORRECT
Secretary of Transportation Mayor Pete will be as effective in dealing with this issue as he was in dealing with potholes in South Bend. CORRECT
5. The Fed will start raising interest rates to combat inflation, but it will not be effective. Four increases during the year. CORRECT
6. Gas prices will be X + $1.25/gallon by December 2022 all across the country and there will be an underlying seething rage within the entire citizenry who realizes it all started the first week of the Biden-AOC admin when he went down on the Green Wet Dream by cancelling American energy independence. WRONG
If you are paying $4.00/gal, you will pay $5.25/gal and Sams Club will continue to be the cheapest place to buy gas. WRONG though gas prices did hit $5.25/gal; they have ameliorated since then. WRONG
7. Individual state economies — Texas, Florida, the southeast — will seem to be disconnected from the national economy and anybody who can move there will move. CORRECT
8. Other states — California, Illinois, New York — will see diaspora level out migration as people get fed up with woke, taxes, weather, and culture. Each of these states will lose the population equivalent of a half of one Congressional District by year end 2022. CORRECT
In spite of all of this, the US economy will continue to be the best in the world. It will be an odd time. CORRECT
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way–in short, the period was so far like the present period that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.”
Dickens. Nailed. It.
Here is what will happen throughout the world.
1. The Beijing Olympics will be a bust. It will have minimal attendance and entire countries will pull out — not because China is guilty of genocide, but because of the latest variant of the bloody ‘Vid. It will be called the Xi variant and the real Xi Jinping will not think that is funny. HALF CORRECT – Olympics were a bust, but nobody named the latest variant the “Xi variant.”
Fauci will demand we start naming ‘Vid Variants with “normal” names and will propose the next variant be named “The Donald.” WRONG
Oh, what the Hell, the Beijing Genocide Olympics will be effectively cancelled and China — this is their 1936 Hitler Olympics moment — will be thoroughly pissed and shamed. WRONG
1A. Just for the record, China will never provide any information or explanation as to from whence the China Virus originated. They will stonewall the world when clearly they know far more than they are revealing or telling anybody. CORRECT
Nobody will press China and if they did, by accident, the Chinese will act like they Photoshopped pictures of Xi Jinping with a goat in a bizarre sex act. CORRECT
China will have a faux, feigned moral outrage full-on tantrum which is really getting old and threaten to nuke Japan and Australia. CORRECT
Pro tip: threatening to nuke your neighbors over Taiwan is gauche and poor manners.
2. China will make a daily flight incursion and two daily annihilation threats against Taiwan and the world will still pretend there is “One China” whilst the Red Chinese Communists take the last acts to kill any semblance of freedom in Hong Kong. CORRECT
Sure, there will be “One China, Two Systems” but System #2 will be identical to System #1. CORRECT
The world will be reminded of how Hitler became a deadly threat — the world ignored it when it was still manageable. CORRECT
3. Russia, whose leader Vlad the Impaler is a bloody thug, will get exactly what it wants — assurances from NATO that NATO will not solicit and enlist new members from those who share a border with Mother Russia, including specifically Ukraine which will slowly fall back into the Russian sphere of influence as it too is a corrupt, criminal enterprise. WRONG
4. The Russians will NOT invade Ukraine but they will also not sheath the dagger of that threat. WRONG
Vlad will back NATO, the US, and the POTUS down like a school bully in a cheap suit and our allies — not wanting to be A’stan-ed — will make clucking noises while Putin gets rich with the Nordstreams and his third rate economy and $100 crude oil — as big as Italy’s, Vlad’s economy, no bigger. CORRECT
Putin will continue to be held hostage to the price of crude and we will make it even better having blown the chance to be energy independent. MURKY
When the US is energy independent, our exports are the thumb on the price scale that provides equilibrium. Low crude prices = a weak Russia. Why can’t we figure this out?
5. Iran will not make a deal with the US though they will pretend to. They will embarrass the Biden regime, something that seems impossible to do. CORRECT
The new hard line ruler of Iran will cozy up further to China who will buy all of Iran’s oil, the proceeds of which Iran will use to foment trouble and fund terror in the region and beyond. CORRECT
With the loss of American energy independence, the US economy will again be held hostage to the Straits of Hormuz. Haven’t we learned that lesson yet? CORRECT
By year end 2022, there will have been at least two direct Israel v Iran shooting matches — not all out war, but strikes, targeted strikes. The Israelis will wipe the Iranian air force from the sky, but the Iranians will deploy decent Russian anti-air tech to kill some Israeli planes. Israel will return to take out those missile sites and the cycle of violence will become embedded deeper in the Middle East. WRONG – this is still quite dicey.
Iran will continue to fund Hamas, Hezbollah, Quds, the Palestinians, the Houthis, and any other scumbags whose organizing theme is being anti-Israel and pro-terror. CORRECT
6. North Korea will re-awaken to cause more trouble at China’s behest. CORRECT
7. The flow of terrorists across the US southern border will become a major thing. Huge. Weapons. Drugs. CORRECT
8. The US will look the other way as Japan rearms in the face of the Chinese threat. A strong Japanese navy can keep China bottled up against its own coast. Very strategic move. CORRECT
9. The US will continue to ignore India who can be incredibly helpful in regard to both Russia and China. A US led US/India/Australia/Japan/Singapore — the new Hong Kong money center in that part of the world/South Korea alliance could be a huge deterrent. CORRECT
10. Afghanistan will be the brokest country in the world and both Russia and China will be in the mix, but they are both smart enough not to get in too deep. The US will actually send the Taliban money by a circuitous route that the MSM will ignore. CORRECT
11. On the edge of war with Russia and China, the US Army will discharge a full division of men (15,000) for being unvaxxed. The US Navy not wanting to be less enlightened will get rid of two aircraft carriers of men. Even the Marines, usually more sensible and focused on war fighting, will get rid of a body of men equal to the 1st Marine Division. These are the real casualties of COVID — China is laughing at us. CORRECT
The Pandemic will die a natural death when the entire US gets Omicron by June 2022 and we achieve natural herd immunity not through vaccines, but through universal infection. It will be like the common cold and we will see death rates that are the same as a bad flu year thereafter. WRONG
We will look back on this episode and conclude several things:
1. The “experts” were wrong on everything. This is remarkable in its pervasive nature. In the continuing challenge between Joe Rogan’s view of everything and the experts, Joe Rogan is right more often than the experts. I expected better. CORRECT
2. What we thought were vaccines that would protect us were nothing more than speed bumps, road kill on the road to essentially nowhere but an elevated Pfizer common stock price. CORRECT
3. We will begrudgingly admit there was no justification for wrecking our economy and for the wholesale assault on our liberties. CORRECT
4. An Italian family CAN have two Fredos (talking to you Cuomo’s). CORRECT
5. When Big Pharma is faced with a $180 vaccine versus an $0.08/each therapeutic pill, the more expensive treatment will always prevail. Just as the entire country is at Booster #5, the therapeutics will suddenly arrive. CORRECT
6. We will be in the FOUR BOOSTER definition of “fully vaccinated” by the 4th of July and FIVE BOOSTER by Labor Day. [Admittedly a little cynical, but not untrue.] CORRECT
Politics will become even more of a blood sport than ever before. The Big One — Joe Biden will NOT be POTUS on 31 December 2022. WRONG
Go big or go home!
1. The Dem-MSM-social media triumvirate versus the rest of America will be clear, obvious, and apparent and at every instant the thumb of the MSM-social media will be hard on the scales. CORRECT
2. The Republicans will be faced with a historic once-in-a-century opportunity to sweep the field and blow it. CORRECT
Oh, they’ll take control of the House and the Senate — nowhere near the proportions that they’re slavering after — but Brandon’s influence will still be in the White House and we will enter a period of time of zero legislative progress. Frankly that is way better than the alternative. HALF CORRECT
3. As mid-term elections with no nationwide candidates on the ballot and the entire House up for grabs, we will see cheating of a historic proportion. CORRECT – I count the whole FBI-Dem-Biden-Twitter thingy as cheating.
4. The Dems will fight like Houthis to reinstate all the “temporary” Pandemic driven cheat-by-mail voting provisions that bubbled to the surface in the 2020 Pandemic Election. With the fight being on the Congressional District level, it will be incredible. CORRECT
The head of the FBI will opine the “election was as clean as usual” and he will be right. Think about that. CORRECT
5. The three determinate issues will be law and order, schools/education, and the economy meaning inflation. Still, this is a mid-term and turnout will be anemic. CORRECT – abortion was a factor.
6. A Donald Trump endorsement in the primaries will be a good thing, perhaps determinative. A Donald Trump campaign appearance will be a certain money raiser. CORRECT
7. Donald J Trump will run for President in 2024 and it will become apparent in 2022 right after the mid-terms in which he will play kingmaker. CORRECT
The old boy will sweep the primaries easily. Look for Ron DeSantis, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz to throw their hats into the ring with a lean, fit, articulate Mike Pompeo coming up with VP gold. TBD
Chris Christie will be waiting tables at the Republican National Convention alongside Mike Pence. Governor of South Dakota Kristi Noem will share a moment in the sun alongside Nikki Haley. TBD
8. After the shellacking laid on the Dems at the mid-terms, it will be clear that Joe Biden will NOT be the party’s nominee for 2024, neither will Kam Harris. TBD
Know what name will circulate for a month or so? Yep, Hillary Clinton — it’s her turn now.
9. When it becomes apparent that DJT is running again, he will be sued by at least 6 former mistresses (one transgender) and the NYC DA as well as the Jan 6 Commission. The effort to “muddy up” the old boy will become a tsunami. He will brush it off. Melania will stand by her man and be better dressed than ever. CORRECT
The Trump Record (mean Tweets and all) versus the Biden Record will be the framework for the election and black and Hispanic Americans will desert the Dems in droves. Droves. This will become apparent in 2022 via the mid-terms. WRONG
10. Durham will issue a scathing report that will lay out the entire scheme — it went through the Oval Office to the FBI to the DNC to Hillary to the DOJ to the NYT and it was a coup attempt, but his report will never see the light of day. Never. TBD
Nonetheless, the College of William Mary will not hire James Comey W&M ’82 to teach “leadership ethics.” I cannot find out if Comey taught this co0urse or not.
The culture war will expand, deepen, and flow over into politics like an oooooooze, a toxic ooze. CORRECT
1. There will continue to be two genders identifiable by studying genitalia at birth though by the 4th of July 2022 some extraordinarily woke folks will have identified at least 22 additional gender alternatives. You will need to carry a laminated 8 1/2 X 11 card to keep up with the expanded nomenclature. CORRECT
2. The whole “riots in the street” and “defund the police” and wholesale lawlessness will be rejected at the funding and ballot box level in the post-Prada raid backlash. Hispanic and black voters — as distinct from race baiters — will turn out to want safe neighborhoods more than any other segment of the country. CORRECT
3. Every politician who championed “defund the police” will be turned out — for God’s sake they elected a former cop to be Mayor in New York City, y’all. CORRECT
A good number of the defund the police Illuminati will openly change their minds. It will take a decade to undo the damage done by these persons. [I was going to say “morons” or “idiots” but I’m going to flirt with no name calling in 2022. Just an experiment.] CORRECT
4. Roe v Wade will be reversed which will throw the issue of abortion back to the states where it always belonged. It will have zero impact upon the mid-terms, but it will be in the spotlight for the 2024 scrap. CORRECT, but also WRONG
In retaliation, the Dems will attempt to pack the Supreme Court and impose term limits.
5. The distance among the have-it-alls, the have-mores, the haves, and the have-nots will be more distinct and less relevant by year end. CORRECT
Jeff Bezos will marry Lauren Sanchez in a lovely ceremony in a 2MM SF Amazon warehouse in Texas during the summer with no air conditioning. The workers will picket the ceremony. WRONG
6. Marijuana will become legal nationwide and those who want to escape their existence with toxic smoke in their lungs will have another way to spread the ‘Vid. If you think we’ve had mental health problems due to the ‘Vid, hold weed’s beer. WORK IN PROGRESS
One of the biggest stories will be technology, not just the creation and development of tech, but the pervasive way it infiltrates everything. CORRECT
1. Web 2.0 v Web 3.0 will be a distinction with not much difference except amongst the skinny jeans and VC set. The average person will not know whether the app they are using is based on a big company owning the database or the democratization of data. They will not even care. CORRECT
2. Google “auto-fill” will get bigger and really confuse the debate. TBD
3. In the end, like Y2K, Web3.0 will feel like time and tides moving without human intervention. Yawn! [Can one put an exclamation point after the word “yawn?” !!!!!!!!!] CORRECT
4. If you kept all of your money in QQQ or TQQQ you will have done fine <<< no, you are not stupid enough to take investment advice from a bloody old car, are you? WRONG
5. China will have erected the Chinese Social Credit System with evil intent and the rest of the “free world” will arrive at the same final result — knowing every bit of everything there is to know about all of us — but call it marketing. CORRECT
6. EV competition will be fierce by year end. Tesla will become one amongst many by 31 December 2022 and its stock will return to earth. The biggest surprise will be — THE COST OF A REPLACEMENT BATTERY FOR AN EV. This is a huuuuuuuuuuuge problem. CORRECT
Bottom line it, Big Red Car
Georgia wins the National Championship. Hook ’em, Dawgs! CORRECT
There it is, Predictions 2022 GRADED.
Fairly good scorecard. What do you think?