Vladimir Putin — a name that will live in the infamous company of Hitler, Mao, Stalin, Mussolini forever — declared martial law in the four faux provinces of Ukraine he annexed. In addition, eight surrounding areas are in a state of “economic mobilization.”

This is as much for Russian public consumption as anything else. He is softening up the Russian public for a sterner step — the declaration of a complete mobilization and an all out war.

He has cast off the fake coat of a “special military operation” and has mobilized his army for a protracted war whilst he continues to play at nuclear brinksmanship.

What does it all mean?

Why, Big Red Car?

Ahhh, dear reader, history and Putin are replete with examples of this martial law charade.

 1. First, this allows Putin and the Russian military to exert complete control over these areas — all of which are in conflict and contested by Ukraine which is slowly winning. His army has control now BTW, so this is nonsense.

This streamlines the decision-making without the necessity to even pretend there is a homegrown Russian sympathizing local governance in place.

 2. Second, this allows the newly militarized area commanders to deport the existing civilian population as a prelude to the continuing Ukrainian attack. This is underway including massive amounts of young children deportees. How bloody cruel must you be to deport children, separate them from their parents, and force them into adoption? 

In the case of Kherson (which the Ukrainians will take by Christmas) this allows the Russians to denude and empty the city and turn it into a battlefield in which they will build Stalingrad-style defenses, something that is right up the alley of Russian doctrine.

  3. Third, like Stalin before him, Putin will deport the natives — even Russian sympathizers — to Siberia and backfill the cities with Russians from lower economic strata who will jump at the chance.

These areas are targeted to become “Russian” by force fed emigration and immigration.

One other ancillary fact to note is that the Russians have been very deliberate in their characterization of these “annexed” lands as being part of Russia, as much as Moscow is part of Russia.

This is a charade to justify the use of incredible brutality and, God forbid, nuclear weapons. Do not miss this subtlety. Haha, “subtlety?”

How is the mobilization going, Big Red Car?

The technical military term for this is a “jug fuck.”

Putin ordered 300,000 conscripts that were supposed to come from a pool of up to 2,000,000 reservists — these are former soldiers of up to 59 years old with very few in organized units that regularly train with almost none of them equipped and clothed.

As you can imagine, they are not sterling candidates based on age, physical condition, health, and morale. Soldiering is a young man’s business.

 1. Almost 500,000 Russian men of conscription age or within the target pool have left Russia. Boom!

Pool of Russian manpower is now 1,500,000 and dwindling. Look for Putin to close the borders of Russia to keep men in.

That shows you how popular the Ukraine war is and how the male population regards Putin. This is not the Patriotic War he contends.

 2. Of the 300,000 targeted in the first tranche (Putin’s order authorized 1,200,000 to eventually be called), the Russians say 200,000 are undergoing training as we speak.

Cough, cough. I suspect it is much less than that.

 3. Some of the conscripts have already entered combat and been killed while others have surrendered to Ukrainian forces on first contact.

Whilst cannon fodder requires the investment of a bullet to dispose of it, these conscripts are not likely to have any other impact on the outcome of the war other than bullets and graves.

Why, you ask? Because the Russians cannot manufacture trained, combat toughened sergeants and company grade officers in this manner. Sergeants run armies whilst officers command them.

Soldiers are only as good as their leaders allow them to be. Thus far, Russian leadership has been abysmal.

 3. The Russians admit to 90,000 KIA and otherwise incapacitated sufficiently to return to combat. The truth is likely more than 120,000 are KIA, WIA, MIA, or POW.

This is more than 2X American KIAs in Vietnam, a war that lasted for two decades.

 4. The Russians have suffered gigantic equipment losses and are pulling ancient gear out of mothballs. The Ukrainians, using modern gear, will feast on this scrap metal.

While I believe Putin is hunkering down for a long war — we could be here for more than another year easily — this mobilization is not going to do anything.

The Russians are struggling with a dwindling supply of precision guided missiles and basic equipment like rifles and battle dress.

The Russians are bleeding without advanced chip sets and are buying simple gear like drones — kamikaze drones — from the likes of Iran.

On the manpower front at the general officer level, Putin has axed a dozen top generals and the Ukrainians have slaughtered another dozen. 

How do you see the nuclear threat, Big Red Car?

Five observations:

 1. Putin and Medvedev are quick to say, “We’re not bluffing” but they did bluff NATO, Sweden, and Finland when they said there would be severe consequences  if those countries allied themselves with NATO.

“Haha, OK, we were bluffing on Sweden and Finland!”

 2. Both Sweden and Finland have applied to join NATO and, thus far, there are no consequences other than Putin and Medvedev ignoring it.

 3. Nonetheless, I believe the threat of deploying tactical nuclear weapons remains high to certain. I believe the Russians will fire off a nuke by the end of this month.

Big point: the Russians and Putin are running out of cards in their deck.

 4. I believe Russia is prepared to fire a “show shot” into the Black Sea or hit a strategic location like Kherson.

 5. The Kherson possibility worries me because of the declaration of martial law, the deportation of the population, the stiffening of defenses, and the symbolism.

Look for Russia to put up stiff resistance, let the Ukrainians draw near to overrunning Kherson, the Russian army to pull back precipitously, and the Russians to take a nuclear shot.

Bottom line it, Big Red Car?

OK, here is the bottom line:

 1. The war is going poorly for Putin and Russia, sufficiently poorly that Putin is feeling threatened. He is, of course, brutally suppressing any real opposition.

 2. Putin has always been willing to do the most dangerous, desperate thing when he is cornered — the invasion of Ukraine is a perfect example.

Clearly, he has decided to turn off the lights and heat in Ukraine for the entirety of the winter. What a depraved, cruel bastard he is.

His problem is he doesn’t have a deep supply of such precision guided missiles and without chips cannot make any more.

Drones are fairly simple weapons, but Russia must now buy them from Iran.

 3. Putin is a gambler and he is prepared to gamble that a nuclear shot may reverse his fortunes. Like a cornered rat, he may see no other way out of the trap.

 4. Putin takes not a whit of responsibility for how poorly his Four Day War has turned out. It has been a remarkable series of bad assessments and decisions. The Russian military is a mediocre outfit on its best day.

So, the bottom line question is this — WTF will NATO and the US do if Putin takes a shot?