What is the Budapest Memorandum (Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons) and why is it a test of the quality of the United States’ as an ally?

What gave rise to the Budapest Memorandum, Big Red Car?

When the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics imploded on 25 December 1991, Ukraine instantly became a former socialist republic and an independent sovereign nation.

Ukraine was always a high military achiever and had 1900 strategic nuclear weapons coupled on 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles, 2500 tactical nuclear weapons, and 54 bombers. These weapons were all owned by what had now become the Russian Federation.

At no time did the Ukrainians have any operational control of these nukes. They were always controlled by Russia.

So what happened then, Big Red Car?

Russia wanted its nukes back from Ukraine and so a meeting was called in Budapest in 1994 to discuss the matter amongst Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine for the purpose of negotiating the return of those nukes to the new Russian Federation.

 1. The Russians wanted their nukes.

 2. The Ukrainians wanted security guarantees in return for relinquishing control of the Russian nukes.

 3. The US and the UK wanted the potential to swing Ukraine toward the west and to create a potential ally in the future.

Never forget that the US and the UK wanted Ukraine to face to the west, to one day become a member of the European Union, and to one day be a part of NATO.

So what were the provisions of the Budapest Memorandum, Big Red Car?

The parties agreed as follows:

 1. Russian would repossess all its nukes from Ukraine and provide certain security assurances.

 2. Ukraine would surrender the Russian nukes in return for certain security assurances.

 3. The certain security assurances included an agreement amongst the parties to:

 a. respect the independence, sovereignty, and territorial borders of Ukraine;

 b. refrain from the use of force or the threat of the use of force against the territorial sovereignty of any of the signatories escept for self-defense;

 c. refrain from the use of economic coercion designed to damage Ukraine in any manner;

 d. seek the intervention of the United Nations Security Council to provide assistance if any signatory should become a victim of aggression or an object of aggression threatened involving nuclear weapons;

 e. not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon state that was a party to the Memorandum; and,

 f. to immediately consult with one another if any questions rose from the Memorandum.

The Memorandum was signed by Russia (Yeltsen), the US (Clinton), the UK, and Ukraine in 1994.

So, then what happened, Big Red Car?

What happened next was that Russia fomented trouble in Ukraine leading to the Euromaiden protests (2013-14) and the ouster of a pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych (who fled to Russia in February 2014).

Russia then flooded Crimea with “little green men” — Russian special forces in uniforms shorn of all ranks or identification — who seized the critical infrastructure of Crimea (airports, ports, railroads, transportation hubs, government buildings, military buildings, communications networks).

Thereafter, Russia conducted a hasty, faux election on 16 March 2014 controlled by the little green men. Not surprisingly, Russian sympathy prevailed and on 18 March 2014, Russia executed a treaty with itself formally annexing Crimea to the Russian Federation.

Gotta love the part where Russia executed a treaty with itself to formal recognize its criminal annexation. 

At the same time, Russian sympathizers engaged in attacks against the Ukrainian government in the Donbas region using Russian soldiers, gear, and more little green men. That fighting continued even through the eventual attack on Ukraine by Russia in February 2022.

The United Nations, the United States, and the United Kingdom all sent STERN LETTERS to Putin, but he appears to have been non-plussed.

How does this pertain to America’s quality as an ally, Big Red Car?

Yes, that is the question, is it not?

 1. In the crafting of the Budapest Memorandum, the United States dealt directly with Russia and Ukraine was barely in the room. The US and Russia cut the deal and pretended it was essentially an effort at nuclear non-proliferation.

 2. The US and UK encouraged Ukraine to look westward and drew a pretty picture of a future membership in the Europe Union and NATO.

 3. In the current environment, Trump 2.0, it is clear that next Tuesday Trump’s boys — Sec of State, National Security Adviser, Sec of Defense, and DNI — will sit down with the Russians ABSENT UKRAINE in the room and hammer out a deal with the Russians to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

What is clear — having been telegraphed by Sec of Defense Hegseth — is that the US has ill advisedly conceded that Ukraine must surrender territory to  the Russians. There are realpolitik niceties put around it such as “realistic” and other big adult words, but there is no question the United States supported the Ukrainian resistance against the unprovoked attack of the Russians and is now cutting their legs out from beneath them.

That is the conduct of a shitty ally — making up front concessions on behalf of an ally and cutting an ally out of substantive discussions. It is a terrible  way to treat an ally.

Bottom line it, Big Red Car, we’re going to the gym

Fine, dear reader.

 1. In the Budapest Memorandum, the United States encouraged Ukraine to become a European country, gave lofty promises, and abandoned them when the feathers hit the fan.

 2. In 2014 when the Russians stole Crimea, the United States responded with a surly strong letter and nothing more. [Not 100% true as we undertook to train their army thereafter.]

 3. Now with the change of regime, the United States Trump 2.0 is abandoning Ukraine to be ravaged by the Russians and to concede sovereign territory (something the US agree not to do in the Budapest Memorandum).

A good ally is the one who is there with you during the bad times, an ally whose word is good, an ally who treats you as an equal, and doesn’t make you sit at the kids’ table during negotiations about the future of your own country.

But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.

[Don’t get me started on the Minsk Agreements, Minsk I and Minsk II.]