Big Red Car screwing with y’all. Here are the results. Iowa returns right here.
REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump puts a thumping on all comers.
Ted Cruz second.
Marco Rubio third.
There are only THREE tickets out of Iowa and all the rest of the candidates are out of serious consideration.
Jeb? Jeb, sweetheart, that also means YOU!
DEMOCRATS
Bernie, Bernie, Bernie — Bernie Sanders wins.
Hillary comes in second by a whisker. She starts shaving less regularly thereafter. [FBI drops by to ask whether she prefers buttons or zippers on her prison garb. Zippers.]
Martin O’Malley takes the Vancouver primary and is surprised to learn it’s not even part of the United States.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car. And I didn’t vote in Iowa so don’t blame it on me.
Cruz has tried really hard in Iowa, spending money, importing workers that believe in “traditional conservative values”, etc.
He shot nearly all his ammunition, bucks, reputation, hopes, labor supply, etc. Maybe he hoped to win and, then, have momentum to get more ammo, etc. and continue on to NH. Alas, now to get to NH, he will about have to thumb a ride and look for a sofa to crash on. Net, in Iowa he gave it his all; that was all he had; and now, losing, he has nothing left. Gee, now how much does he owe Citi and Goldman Sachs?
Now Cruz will have nightmares seeing the Trump 757 making low altitude flyovers. It is a gorgeous plane, with or without the lettering. The RR engines, the long strut of the nose wheel that makes the front look a little high, the wing tips, maybe to extract some thrust from the wing vortices (vortexes), the gorgeous vertical stabilizer — gorgeous plane. No doubt a huge advantage for Trump, just for getting to the rallies, for having a flying hotel room, for not having to carry luggage, for being able to carry his staff, supply of hats, and, of course, for his brand. Gee, likely the plane has a shower, but the jet fuel to carry 10 gallons of water can be surprisingly high! And those engines, RR engines, gorgeous engines, and the blades on the front fan have “air sacks and hollows, just like a bird” (extra credit for knowing the source!) from some tricky, proprietary manufacturing process. Meanwhile Cruz is, what, flying commercial, riding in cabs, sleeping in motels? Bummer.
Microsoft’s little prediction program has claimed that Trump will win the first four primaries. So, he’s on the way to “running the table” — yes, in high school, I played some straight pool! Right, for a safe first shot, just gently clip a back corner of the rack, have the cue ball go two rails and return to about where it started, have the ball clipped go to the back rail and return to where is started, and have the other back, corner ball go to its side rail and return, “Your shot, and be sure not to leave me anything.”
Trump has already started staffing his ground game in Georgia.
If Trump wins the first four, why should anyone else bother to show up for the rest? Maybe they won’t. Or, Trump might mention that he still has yet to pick a VP, and from that maybe all the rest will obediently, submissively, obsequiously, in the interest of party unity you understand, defer and withdraw hoping to be chosen as the one? Hope so. Then, maybe, over the summer Trump will name the third runner up. Later the second runner up. Later the first runner up. And only at the convention the VP nominee? Meanwhile he has all the losers just shut the … up, as they should anyway. Then maybe Trump will pick someone really good but was not a POTUS candidate, e.g., Rep. Colonel Dr. Chris Gibson?
Then at the convention, Trump might have a special meet and greet for all the pundits, that is, we remember, all the ones, i.e., all of them, who called him a joke, a clown, a this and a that. Then one by one the pundits get to move from their transgressions to sacrifice and, finally, redemption — this last where the Trump White House will actually let them into the press room. The sacrifice? Trump holds out his hand and the supplicants get to kiss it, godfather style? He wouldn’t but he could and in some ways he should. The pundits really should have to crawl through mud before kissing his hand.
We definitely need a photographer present when George F. Will comes up to greet Trump. And when Megyn Kelly meets Trump, what will be the expression on her face?
And the 75% of the media who are dishonest? They need a fast reality check, with an epiphany, and, maybe, start working on their resume.
What’s the word? Is it disruption? “A little revolution (rebellion) now and then is a good thing, don’t you think?”. At least get back to reality.
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Agreeing more with you than you do with yourself.
BRC
https://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Thanks. It’s been a fun show.
So, the Iowa Republican caucus resulted in delegates
Cruz 8
Trump 7
Rubio 7
(1) Big Issue
These numbers strongly conflict with the poll numbers, a lot of conflict for Trump and much more for Rubio.
(2) Shaky, WaPo Explanation
A shaky, after the fact explanation for Cruz is in the big WaPo article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-inside-story-of-how-ted-cruz-won-iowa/2016/02/02/238b0b94-c839-11e5-a7b2-5a2f824b02c9_story.html
In short, Cruz had 5000, maybe 13,000, volunteers making phone calls, had and took advantage of data on each of the Republican voters, one by one, worked hard on the conservative voters, and worked especially long (years) and hard on the evangelical voters.
So, this explanation is WaPo stuff, and is shaky because it still conflicts with the poll numbers.
(3) Dividing by Three
So, for the delegates, each of the top three got almost exactly 1/3rd. Gee,
8 + 7 + 7 = 22
which is not evenly divisible by 3 so that the 8, 7, 7 is as close as possible to dividing by 3.
(4) Rubio, Apathy, Throwing Darts
To me, the big clue about what the heck happened is the dividing by three and, especially, Rubio’s 7, and that suggests to me that mostly the voters were throwing darts.
Why? Because the voters were so apathetic that they didn’t care enough to look at differences in the candidates.
(5) Turnout for Date Night
From the WaPo article, the turnout was
So, that conflicts with my explanation of apathy? Maybe not: The campaigns worked hard to explain to people how to use the caucus system. So maybe a lot of voters showed up just for the social event, e.g., looking for dates.
(6) The future?
I don’t see that what Cruz did in Iowa as working very often among the other 49 states.
And, Trump might sue Cruz over the “native born” issue.
For the Cruz deeply right wing, rock solid, conservative principles, those sound angry, absolutist, scary, inhumane, in a chaotic world and with a still weak US economy, taking away the safety net, all because of some not very well considered principles that often, net, look like quasi-religious and selfish hobbies of some really rich guys.
Even worse, the open borders stuff looks like an attempt to bring back a case of indentured servitude or slavery; as we know too well from the 1860s, darned dangerous for our country.
I’ve known some really wound up evangelicals, e.g., from Indiana, and I can believe that they are a lot like those in Iowa. And I’ve known some determined conservatives.
People are very suspicious about someone asking for their vote, money, or anything else based on religion. And for the level of insecurity in the world and US now and the track record of conservatism, this far right conservatism stuff looks wacko and nearly medieval. E.g., the US conservatives seem to claim that in the European socialist countries people are starving. Well, they aren’t starving. So, the conservatives come off as wanting to pull down the US social safety net, and not many people will vote for that.
Generally, I don’t see Cruz as an attractive candidate; he looks cold, 99 44/100% legalistic, mechanical, inflexible, manipulative, no one to have a beer with, slightly inhuman.
My take, at this point, is that, net, in the country as a whole, the evangelicals and conservatives won’t have nearly votes enough for Cruz to win the White House.
Instead, Trump’s appeal to the political middle of the road strikes me as far more powerful.
For the GOP establishment, the GPOe, if they nominate Cruz, then the Democrat, whatever Democrat, especially just any well qualified Democrat dark horse, might win.
The GOPe against Trump are smoking funny stuff and punching themselves in the gut.
In all of his campaign, Trump has emphasized his ability to get stuff done. Well, from his past, he has lots of great examples.
But one example in politics might have been winning in Iowa. I concede that the polls said that he was in line to do just that. Yes, I know: Lots of Iowa voters didn’t make up their minds until the last week, and since Trump skipped the last debate and Rubio made something of a last minute effort, maybe Rubio took enough votes from Trump for the outcome. Maybe. I like my other analysis better, that there was a three way tie for first because the voters were throwing darts.
Still, when Trump claims he will do big things, uh, Don, a biggie thing would have been to have won by a wide margin in Iowa. Maybe for some of your campaign staff you need to say, right, “You’re fired.”. I know; I know; you spent about the least in total and by far the least per vote, but, uh, Don, you didn’t win. And you were not short of funds. If it took 15,000 people making phone calls, then you could have had those. Somehow the rallies with
15,000 excited supporters weren’t enough. The polls said that they were, but they weren’t.
Don, I’m still on your side. And to me you still look much better than the rest. And you will win unless someone beats you, and I can’t see anyone in the races who should have a chance of doing that.
But, Don:
First, you gotta get it done. And beforehand, be darned sure you are getting it done. Yes, come in “under budget” but in this case, also “over deliver”.
Second, at this point, some of your credibility when promising to get big things done in politics and government is on the line.
I still believe you will win the White House, but I want you to win it by wide margins so that you get a mandate and have high credibility for getting big things done, in politics and government.
Uh, in NH and SC, what would it take for you to put everyone else down in the single digits?
This is my dream scenario. Both Trump and Bernie lose the nomination, but just barely, clearly exposing the people vs party divide. Both decide to run as independent creating a spoiler on both sides and a real 4 person/party race. That would go along way is dismantling the hold the 2 party system has on us.
In the end, Bernie wins as an independant, 2 party system is over.
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The Big Red Car does not really care who wins because the Big Red Car knows that Iowa has “proportionate” allocation of delegates meaning that everybody is getting some delegates tonight. Everybody. Get some, y’all!
The “win” is more about form and momentum going into New Hampshire and South Carolina.
The Big Red Car stands by his predictions — predictions, not an expression of support or endorsement, mind you.
There will be no independent runs because it is too damn expensive to mount such a campaign, it is too late, and for all of Trump’s mojo about self-funding, he hasn’t spent anything yet. He really doesn’t have that kind of liquidity.
Trump — asset rich and not so much cash on hand. Not the $1.5B it will take to run.
Research your Democratic “super delegates” whereby half of the delegates are NOT awarded by the primaries. Hillary has almost all of these superdelegates sewed up. She only needs a few more delegates for a majority.
It is a crooked shitty system and it is crooked beyond comprehension.
Last word, the GOPe may think they have some ability to end up with a “brokered” convention whereby they can play kingmakers. The same geniuses who set out to derail Trump and who picked Jeb Bush.
They don’t think Trump is going to make his own damn deal BEFORE the convention? Haha.
Trump is a few votes short and either Cruz or Rubio (better pick because he actually speaks Spanish and, arguably, brings Florida) gets the VP nod in return for his pocketful of promises. Voila!
The Big Red Car is mostly happy this shit is about over.
BRC
https://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
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Big Red Car channels the Iowa returns. Learn it here first.
https://themusingsofthebigredcar.com/iowa-returns-are-in/
BRC
https://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com