The direct and truthful answer to that question, beloved readers, is NO. Not just “no” but fuck no.

So what’s been going on, Big Red Car?

The Trump admin — as it promised during the campaign — is pressing hard to arrange a cessation of hostilities starting with a thirty day cease fire between Ukraine and Russia for the purpose of exploring a final resolution to the war.

President Trump promised during the campaign he would negotiate an “end to the war in Ukraine before Inauguration.” That has proven to be more difficult than President Trump imagined, but he is on the job.

So what actually has been going on, Big Red Car?

So, the Trump admin has taken Ukraine to the woodshed — meaning the US terminated all forms of American support to include intel and armaments — and used its leverage to get Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agreee to a thirty day ceasefire.

After smacking Zelenskyy around and bringing him into compliance with Trump’s wishes, the US reignited the support it had withdrawn.

This played out in public and would not qualify as statesmanship. It was a ham handed and bullying effort, but the Ukrainians — who bloody well have no other choice — agreed to it.

With that Ukrainian agreement in hand, President Trump sent an emissary (Ambassador for the Middle East and Ukraine Steve Witkoff) to Russia to speak to Putin about the ceasefire that Putin summarily rejected.

Instead in a obvious facesaving effort, the Russians and the Ukrainians agreed to stop long range attacks on each others’ energy infrastructure. Unfortunately the same night the “deal” was announced, the Russians struck Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

After Witkoff’s meeting with Putin, there was some talk about a cease fire in the western Black Sea as it relates to shipping. Initially, it looked like this was going to work, but Putin then erected an increasing number of objections.

To recap:

 1. There is currently no signed ceasefire of any kind whatsover.

 2. The Americans — using brute force — strongarmed the Ukrainians into agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire.

 3. The Americans presented the same offer to the Russians and they — Putin — blew a little smoke up Trump’s ass, but summarily rejected it.

 4. After the failure of the 30-day ceasefire, there was talk of a ceasefire pertinent to “energy infrastructure,” but Russia immediately violated the spirit of that deal.

 5. There was talk of a western Black Sea ceasefire, but Russia appended a great number of conditions, so that has not been agreed.

 6. There has been contact between the warring parties — acting through the graces of the Trump admin — but as of right now there is no agreement on anything.

What are the motivations of the parties, Big Red Car?

The parties — the United States, Ukraine, Russia and notably not Nato — are all drifting toward some kind of resolution. That resolution is different depending upon the nature of the parties.

United States

President Trump just wants the bloody war over. If I hear one more time, “This war would have never started if I were President,” my head will explode.

President Trump does not care that Russia attacked Ukraine or the moral implications of unprovoked aggression. He is not persuaded the US needs to play any role in the actual peace and explicitly does not agree to provide any peacekeeping troops.

In President Trump’s mind, this war has devolved into a real estate deal and he wants the United States to recover its $100B investment (no, the US  has NOT invested $350B) in the conflict by obtaining an interest in Ukraine’s future mineral wealth.

The US – Ukraine minerals/rare earths deal was supposed to be long since done, but it did not close. Right now, the US has become even more demanding asking for an interest in all existing (rather than future) and future minerals, rare earths, and energy (oil, gas) and has even indicated interest in running the largest nuclear plant in Europe — the ZNPP (located in Enerhodar within the zone of land occupied by the Russians in Zaporizhzhia oblast).

The ZNPP is not chopped liver as it supplied — not currently operating — 20% of Ukraine’s energy.

President Trump believes there is some “special relationship” between him and Putin. Your Big Red Car thinks this is delusional. The Russians who are also turning a mercantile eye toward the ZNPP rejected the idea of the US operating the nuclear power plant. Surprise.

Ukraine

President Zelenskyy and Ukraine want a cessation to hostilities, the return of their occupied land, reparations for the damage to their country, and future guarantees of security from responsible parties. He does not want another Budapest Memorandum jug fuck.

What he really wants is to eject Russia from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, by dint of arms.

Russia

Putin and Russia want to hold all the occupied land they currently hold plus the balance of oblasts they do not currently occupy. In addition, Putin wants the land to be recognized internationally — including by the United Nations — as Russian territory. This gives Russia a land bridge from Mother Russia to Crimea which they seized in 2014. It gives them a warm water port in the Mediterranean.

Putin wants Ukraine demilitarized and their army disbanded.

Putin wants Nato to agree to never admit Ukraine as a Nato member.

Putin wants Ukraine to be forced to hold new elections and throw Zelenskyy out. Ukraine is currently under martial law and cannot hold elections per their constitution whilst under martial law.

Putin wants all economic sanctions lifted such as being banned from the SWIFT system. This — lifting sanctions — is his real concern more than anything else.

As a frame of reference, it is reported that the men in Hell wanted ice water this morning.

So what happens next, Big Red Car?

Nothing much happens as there are a lot of bubbles that got smashed. Let me elucidate upon them.

 1. There is no special relationship between Trump and Putin. Putin has been jerking off American presidents for three decades and Trump is just the latest version. President Trump is delusional if he think she can charm Putin like he did the North Korea leader Kim Chopsticks.

 2. Putin believes Trump is highly maleable and the nonsense about praying for him after the assassination attempt and having a portrait commissioned are a very clear indication of what a lightweight Putin considers Trump to be.

 3. With the recent falling out between the US and Ukraine and the US and non-US Nato (the Europeans), Putin thinks he can grind out a military victory on the ground. In a recent press conference he said as much. This is all a con because if he had that kind of military force we would not be 4 years into the war.

[I personally believe the Russians are militarily exhausted (as are the Ukrainians) and that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse that can be hastened by driving the price of crue oil down.] This to me is the place to focus. Break Russia with even more fierce sanctions.

Putin is a world class bullshitter and is constantly blowing smoke up the ass of the west as to weapons and the capabilities of his army. One thing that is irrefutable is that mighty Russia is in their 4th year of trying to defeat Ukraine on the battlefieled. The Russian army sucks.

 4. The non-US Nato members are taking a long time to assess and put into action whatever heightened support they intend to provide Ukraine given what is a clear indication that a Trump United States is not keen about being the driver of Nato.

It is clear the future holds a non-US Nato and a European army to counter the threat from Russia. Russia will be a pain in the ass until Putin is removed.

Bottom line it, Big Red Car, we’re getting the car detailed

Fine, dear reader, here it is — there is no ceasefire and there is no likelihood of a ceasefire any time soon.

The Russians are trying to sell the idea they are winning. They are not.

The Ukrainians cannot continue to fight without US and Nato support. The US is no longer keen about the war.

A great American failing is losing interest in the fighting when it becomes cumbersome and time consuming. This happened in both Vietnam and Afghanistan.

The Trump admin wants out of the Ukraine war and Nato. This makes them sloppy. They are unwilling and incapable of holding the Russians — the unprovoked aggressors — to the line to create a peace.

But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car. Dreary picture, but let’s deal with reality.