Category Archives: Tariffs

05/8/25

China, Tariffs, Negotiations, And Saving Face

One of the unique concepts of the Asian mind is the idea of “face.” It is a stew with reputation, honor, social standing, wealth, power, dignity, moral  character, and integrity being the main ingredients.

One may give face, lose face, or save face and the Chinese have been focused on face for more than 5,000 years. The rest of the world is not so fixated on face.

Why do we care about face, Big Red Car?

Because, dear reader, we are dealing with the Chinese in regard to tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade and face is a big deal with the Chinese.

The Chinese and the Americans — now having put the issue in the middle of the table and feeling the first impacts of the tariffs — desperately want to arrive at some compromise.

 1. The Americans — meaning President Trump — are more than willing to enter into discussions and already have. The Trump admin is looking for a deal to address tariffs and Chinese practices such as access to Chinese courts to address civil business litigation, the safety of intellectual property owned by Americna companies, access to Chinese markets for American goods, and other specific, substantive Chinese bad trade practices.

 2. The Chinese — desperate to maintain face and not to look powerless in the eyes of the world but dealing with a dicey economy themselves — want to export their many goods to the United States, the most powerful and robust economy in the world.

We are now seeing the impact of tariffs in American ports with a meaningful reduction in traffic. Continue reading →

04/22/25

Spotted Owl Soup — A Jobs Creator And Tariff Buster

If you are of a certain age, you will recall the saga of the Pacific Northwest spotted owl — strix occidentalis caurina. This was the classic logging/timber/lumber v environmentalists controversy that castrated the lumber industry in the Pacific Northwest.

It is an apochryphal environmental story and one that demonstrates the impact of regulation on industry and the unanticipated impact on foreign trade. It is also indicative of the “winner-take-all” nature of politics.

What happened, Big Red Car?

Continue reading →

04/9/25

The Chinese Treasury Dump Boogie Man

In discussions around the issue of the US – China economic relationship much has been said about the threat of the Chinese dumping their extensive portfolio of US Treasuries (bonds, bills, notes). Is it a real threat?

You decide.

Give me the facts, just the facts, Big Red Car

OK, dear reader, here are the nascent facts:

Continue reading →

04/7/25

Non-tariff Barriers To Trade Because Tariffs Are NOT Enough

If you have been following the events in the global economy since Liberation Day you have undoubtedly been confronted with many opinions as to the wisdom or folly of the actions of President Donald J Trump — the Tariff King/Emperor. Like everything in our complicated trade picture, there is far more than meets the eye.

If you own equities, it is even possible you are choking on some meaningful paper losses.

WTF is actually going on, Big Red Car?

Well, dear reader, what you are seeing is a massive global trade RESET just like re-booting your computer when it fails to operate as it is supposed to do. President Trump, as he promised, hit the RESET button and imposed tariffs based on a concept of reciprocity.

This is part of Candidate Trump’s suite of financial campaign promises: to right size the government, to get rid of fraud, waste, and corruption, to reduce spending, to conquer inflation, to lower interest rates, and to put international trade on a fair and free footing. 

Leader of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, meeting with President Trump — first in line to discuss tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade. The parade is coming.

Part of that is fair, reciprocal tariffs. But, it is not just reciprocity, it is also what are called NTBs — non-tariff trade barriers — that have the same impact as tariffs, they restrain the ability of American manufacturers to obtain access to foreign markets and to have a fair chance to do business on a level playing field.

At its core, the Trump RESET is all about fairness. Continue reading →

03/20/25

Tariffs, A Little Context And Analysis

Since President Trump’s inauguration — is it really still less than the first 100 days — there has been much talk of tariffs. Trump has threatened them, imposed them, modified them, and removed them. New concepts — such as “reciprocal” tariffs — have flooded the space.

Tariffs are in play, baby.

Here’s a link to the Federal Register where you can look up all of President Trump 2.0’s Executive Orders. Federal Register

Trump 2.0 has made tariffs into a sharp-edged weapon. And, yet, we are still only in the early innings. Continue reading →

11/4/19

Tariffs, China — How They Work

Everybody I know keeps telling me that tariffs won’t work, while I continue to stumble on instance after instance in which they work just fine.

Let me define what “work” means.

In my definition, the USA imposes a tariff on goods made in China, thereby making US-made products more attractive, and the company who makes the Chinese manufactured goods takes some action that somehow improves the US economy. That sound fair?

In this instance, we have the Stanley Black & Decker tool manufacturing company that bought the Craftsman brand from the failing Sears company moving production back to the United States.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

“When we purchased Craftsman in 2017 we were determined to revitalize this iconic U.S. brand and bring back its American manufacturing heritage,” Stanley Black & Decker President and CEO Jim Loree said in a statement. “From the launch of Craftsman’s refreshed brand identity last year to our announcement of the first new manufacturing facility in many years, we’re demonstrating our continued commitment to grow the brand and bring even more production of these great products back to the United States.”

When Jim Loree says he wants to refresh the brand identity, he is also planning on a $1B impact on sales by 2021.

Continue reading →

09/3/19

Tariffs — The Tariffs Are Working

A lot of folks whose opinions I respect have been saying that the Trump admin tariffs against China will simply impact our lives in the form of increased prices.

I have maintained otherwise. I have consistently said the imposition of tariffs will create structural changes in the way American importers source and deliver goods to the US economy; and, they will change the way individuals buy/boycott Chinese goods.

As a personal example, I no longer buy any Chinese goods. None. I check everything to see where it was made. Made in China? Adios!

Now, we are seeing the truth of that. I was right. <<< Obnoxious utterance ALERT!

Allow me to rub your nose in it, may I, please?

Comes now the story of the American dollar store industry in the specific exemplars of Dollar General and Dollar Tree who were literally created by their ability to access low cost foreign made goods and to sell them to a slice of America who not only wants a bargain, but desperately needs one.

These stores are ground zero when it comes to selling foreign sourced goods. They are the canary in the mine shaft. The canary has begun to sing.

Continue reading →