Unlikely, as that would inevitably draw Israel into the conflict!

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If Putin is able to get away with the Ukraine, he will be insatiable. He will likely take Florida next.

BRC
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Agreed. This is the moment when Obama needs to step up to the plate, along with the main European leaders.

The stakes are much higher than the public assumes.

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The notion of having newly recruited NATO countries sharing a border with Russia is a toxic mix. No differently than the US feels about Canada or Cuba.

Putin only has to turn those valves off for three days for everyone to get the message.

I recently read the declassified Russian Politburo transcripts of Krushchev’s talks with Eisenhower in 1959 which left the Russians with the distinct view that Eisenhower would give them a war if they wanted one.

The Russians feared Eisenhower’s war fighting expertise. Krushchev had been a battalion level Communist party apparatchik

I think Putin is very, very shrewd but part of the matter is the lack of expertise in his opponent. Putin was a fairly senior KGB guy and you don’t ever stop being one once you’ve been one.

He has put himself in the limelight with Syria, Iran, Venezuela and now Ukraine. The Olympics was a coming out ceremony. Who knew the Russians owned Miami Beach in Sochi?

The rest of the world thinks Putin is a resolute and powerful leader. All that silly macho nonsense plays well in other parts of the world.

This is a very dangerous game right now.

BRC
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Crimea is expendable, that’s the unfortunate reality of the situation.

But Putin wants to also provoke strife within the main body of Ukraine, regardless of the views of its inhabitants. He should not be allowed to get away with that.

You’re right when you talk about the gas supplies, but I read an excellent article in the Economist a few weeks back which pointed out that without its energy revenues Russia would be in deep recession. So cutting them off would be a risk for Putin too.

There’s nothing like economic hardship to embolden popular uprising — as Maidan has itself shown. But the big question is whether Putin knows when to fold. Khrushchev did over Cuban missiles, but I doubt Putin’s cut from the same cloth.

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Keen insights and authoritative voice. Thanks.

If one were not afraid to escalate things, the “no fly” zone would be a good gambit.

I don’t think anyone has the cajones to do that because of the short term potential for Russia to turn off the natural gas to about half of Europe. The natural gas is a huge consideration.

The no fly zone doesn’t do much about the tanks and ground troops — including anti-aircraft. Again if one were willing to take a gamble, hitting the Russians now with their fleet in port, their armor massed at the border would be a good military bet.

I see Russia getting the Crimea and the country being split much like the Russians have retained the two provinces in Georgia.

BRC
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I’ve read so many articles on the situation they all merge into one and makes it difficult to provide links. But, in a nutshell, this is my take. Putin is all about image. Apparently the man does not admit mistakes or apologize. Draw your own conclusions from that.

Far from being an admirer of the ex Ukrainian president, Yanukovych, whom they backed very strongly, the Russians dislike him intensely. Why? Because he is weak and incompetent. In Moscow’s eyes he should have snuffed out the first sparks of dissent at the very beginning. Once he allowed the protesters to consider Maidan square their own, the die had already been cast — it became only a matter of time before the balance shifted to the people.

So, in a way, Putin is giving a lesson in how it should be done. In others words: no fucking about.

But I believe he is overplaying his hand. The key difference between Ukraine and Georgia is that no-one was really paying attention to the latter. But the world has been totally focused on the events in Maidan. People power won. The people made the puppet president run away. This is not small news.

The row started because the Ukrainians want to be closer to Europe, not Russia. That fact is key.

I believe there is good opportunity to call Putin’s bluff. Ukraine should formally request NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over their territory and NATO should accept. Then we’ll see who blinks first.