Big Red Car in the midst of SXSW — the cool folk just call it “South By”, y’all. Face it, you’re cool.
Now this ATX brilliantly warm weather — 68F right now and headed to 85F, yes, that’s cool.
So, there is a revolution going out there — the “people” are finally taking the “establishment” to task.
It is, of course, Donald Trump’s fault which the media and the punditry and the “establishment” have all trumpeted thereby giving Donald Trump even more media coverage.
[Just for the record, I think that even President Obama has agreed that everything is now Donald Trump’s fault thereby releasing George W Bush from solitary confinement during which everything was “Bush’s Fault!”]
The essential nature of revolutions
Revolutions are always the result of anger bubbling over into action and that action is always confrontational.
Again, — anger begets action which begets confrontation which is what revolutions are all about. Revolutions are instruments of change, sometimes violent change.
Revolutions always seek to throw off some mantle that has been smothering the revolutionaries — the Colonists v the English. The normal folk v the SBUX baristas ‘splaining race issues.
Revolutions are not easy. This revolution will not be easy. Freedom is neither free nor easy. It will not be either this time around.
Who started the revolution — who let the dogs out?
It started with the Tea Party which was like the French Resistance in World War II — the last war in which the good guys just kicked the bad guys’ butts and made them eat shit. The French Resistance was organized by a compelling animosity toward the Nazis. It was an odd, but highly effective, coalition of disparate folks who were organized by their common hatred of a single enemy rather than a coalition built around a common theme.
Revolutions are like that — “what are we against” coalesces first before “what are for” gets out of bed.
The revolution hit the streets in 2014 when the Republicans won an enormous victory at the polls whereat the President of the US, one Barack H Obama, made the incredibly ill-advised statement: “My policies are on the ballot.”
The folks heard that statement and acted upon it and guess what? The Republicans were given the Senate, a bigger majority in the House, a gob of state legislatures, and lots of governorships.
Huge victory.
It was driven by the angry muscle worker who came to the ballot box with the disastrous reality of Obamacare in his paycheck and in his brain — the lies to get it passed, the inability to really keep your own doctor or insurance plan, the insane financial implications of higher premiums and deductibles, and the harsh reality that middle class incomes under this President were in the shitter, big time.
It was the first manifestation of anger at the ballot box.
Why is everyone angrier still, Big Red Car?
Oh, dear reader, we cannot even begin to catalog the reasons why folks are angry. I promise we’ll discuss that in the future but it is really the economy, failed domestic policy, failed foreign policy, the incessant lying, the weaponization of the IRS, the corruption, the grip of the establishment on everything. Being on the wrong side of the rigging on Wall Street and at the Capitol.
The list goes on forever and the anger never stops.
Then, of course, there is the reality of the fact that even after the Republican “little people” gave Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan the Congress, they knelt reverently, kissed President Obama’s slip on loafers, and approved the Obama budget that fully funded his entire program without as much as a whimper. Not even an hour of proforma ugly debate on the debt ceiling or Planned Parenthood. Just rolled over and let the President scratch their bellies while they licked his hand.
The people — poorly educated, ill-informed as they are — are mad as Hell at the establishment that has done NOTHING for them.
Where does anger lead?
Violence is always the product of anger. No nuns, fresh from a couple of laps around the Stations of the Cross, have ever started a revolution because they pray themselves through their anger.
The little, poorly educated, ill-informed people (as Ted Cruz describes the Trump tidal wave body surfers) are done with the establishment. They recognize that the GOPe gave us McCain and Romney and that was no big favor as it put The. Worst. President. Ever. in the White House. They can’t even give them back.
The little people would like to jettison McConnell and Ryan at the same time. [Programming note: “jettison” is a made up word to sound erudite (another made up word). No real person ever said, “Let’s go jettison the corruption, the establishment.” Just keep that in mind and remember the reason we don’t know this kind of stuff is because we’re poorly educated. Deal with it. Big Red Car is right there with y’all.]
What we are seeing in America right now is that anger being transformed into violence and the GOPe waging war against the angry people’s champion, Donald Trump.
Violence is bad, right, Big Red Car?
Dear reader, there is a type of intellectual violence wherein ideas wrestle and better ideas emerge. It requires someone to start the wrestling match.
Just about everything we are discussing today was injected into the fray by Donald Trump. Trump has set the agenda and the others are pretending, “Hey, I was interested in illegal immigration. Yeah, I was right there.”
In the violent impact of competing ideas — BRING IT, sayeth the Big Red Car.
As to the notion that these ideas should collide in the pathways to campaign events, as they did in Chicago, the Big Red Car says: “Let it happen but remember there are Federal statutes against intimidating voters and impeding elections. MoveOn.org is funding this stuff. It is neither accidental nor innocent. And, then, there is that First Amendment to the Constitution which suggests that one man’s free speech doesn’t trump another’s. [Haha, “trump” — get it, y’all. Oh, the Big Red Car can’t help itself sometimes.]
This is why we have law enforcement and I say let the riots begin. The clash of ideas, not the blood in the streets.
But, here’s the thing, revolutions are not bloodless.
Where are we, Big Red Car?
Here’s where we are, y’all:
1. There is a coronation going on over in the Democrat party wherein the last vestiges of the Bernie Sanders, socialist, sideshow are playing out while folks are holding their breath to see if their candidate is going to be indicted. Smart money is on Obama protecting her but she has not even begun to hear the worst of this yet.
2. The GOPe is no longer conducting a real primary. It is now a “Never Trump” or “Stop Trump” rally and they are a little late to their own party. Got stuck in the traffic of the folks swarming to Donald Trump.
3. The GOPe, which hasn’t fielded a credible or competent or competitive candidate in a long time, is apoplectic with rage at the little people (the poorly educated and uninformed, in particular) who have failed to behave themselves at their own coronation.
They picked Jeb Bush, just like they always do, they slapped him with a checkbook and sent him out — to get eaten alive by Donald Trump who took his lunch money, gave him a wedgie, and sent him on his way.
4. And, then there is Donald Trump, a flawed human whose flaws are on display in the Smithsonian and who has caught the fancy of the angry man in the street, the revolutionary. He will come riding into Cleveland with more delegates than anyone else, maybe not the entire requisite 1237 he’d like to have but enough that it would be farcical to snatch the nomination from his hands without having due process, a better candidate, and some logic as to why someone else can do a better job.
5. Do not miss this — Trump’s candidacy is at the root of increased voter turnout, infectious enthusiasm, and a complete domination of the airwaves and social media. The folks are not coming out to vote for Kasich (who would make a damn good President in the old days).
You dump trump, you pop that bubble, and you elevate Hillary (unless she’s tied up in Federal prison, a very real possibility).
The revolution will not be bloodless, y’all. Get it on, you little, poorly educated, uninformed people cause right now you’re throwing a no hitter and the GOPe is learning that YOU control the party, not them.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car. Be kind to yourself and, yes, it is YOUR country. Act like a boss.
So, clearly not a Trump or NASCAR fan here but let’s look at math
Trump delegates – 646
Non Trump Delegates – 708 (397-TC, 169- MR, 142-JK)
Then the 15% party delegates
Seems unlikely to change significantly so Unless THE Donald get the 1237 he faces a first round loss. He can run independent but Get no FEC funding or face time on media.
Just the rules and math!
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The math is not quite what you show but it is close enough. As an example, Trump has 691 delegates with 1,013 left available.
Here is a really good reference on from whence the delegates come.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml
On the first round, everyone is bound. It is only AFTER the first round that anyone has any authority to deviate from their original pledge.
The Trumpists are unlikely to abandon their man. They are revolutionaries.
There are only 114 unaligned delegates.
There is no question that the math is daunting.
BRC
www,themusingsofthebigredcar.com
I believe that in the 40 days from last primary to convention first vote all non-Trump votes will consolidate. This is the deal makers phase and I agree all trump delegates will hold on to Trump regardless of how many vote it takes. Also I think Cruz will do better going forward than he has so that the gap is less.
Thought you would like this
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It cuts both ways. When Trump gets Cruz one-on-one, it may hurt Cruz rather dramatically. Thus far, Trump is way ahead on points and has left a long trail fo bodies behind him.
Frankly, America does not want or need a conservative. It wants and needs a no bullshit leader.
Could be wrong.
BRC
https://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
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Good analysis. I will do a similar blogpost differently. At SXSW, there was a presentation on how to find trends that will become movements. They start out in fragments. Eventually, they start to form a wave that the establishment is disgusted by, or fights. Then, they overwhelm.
Hip Hop is a movement like that. It started out as independent house music in the black community. Eventually you saw fragments of it in language, dress, attitude etc. The existing industry tried to keep it under wraps-but instead, new producers rose up and were successful. The existing industry tried to co-opt it with fakes, but people saw through it.
If we look at politics, it was before the Tea Party. That was the wave forming. Jesse Ventura getting elected in pure blue MN; Schwarzenegger in CA, the election of successful businesspeople to political office in IL, WI and FL. Those were early signs. Bloggers blogging against crony capitalism also were a sign of the wave. Bernie Sanders support is also evidence of this wave.
My bet is GOPe will try to take over the convention. Trump will overwhelm them. Some of GOPe will splinter and back Hillary in a last ditch effort to retain control. Remember, 12% of GOP voted for Obama because they thought he wasn’t a redistributionist hard left liberal. They drank the Kool Aid and thought he was pragmatic. Even the rise of Obama predicated the rise of Trump. He was supposed to cut deficits and be a transformational President.
Trump will overwhelm them all. It’s the culmination of a huge wave crashing on the beach. The establishment and elites will not like it. It’s never pretty when the peasants rise up against authority. But , Scott Adams is correct. It’s going to be a landslide. The more they fight, the bigger it will be.
The rise of Reagan was similar, but it was more buttoned down. Imagine what Reagan would look like today with the ubiquitous media.
Both Blog and post are good reads, My challenge in this is what has Trump accomplished? He has gotten the angry to get off their couch, he has mastered Earned media in a political campaign, he has gotten the media to focus on a canceled event over a failed debate that left him looking clueless as to issues and solutions.
Why do CMOs not make it to the CEO chair? Media is a trained seal, throw a fish and it will jump. The other functions in any company are more self assured and have minds of their own.
So separate the race from the leadership required to turn this aircraft carrier.
A more appropriate movie line may be from the worst movie ever, Waterworld, where the captain fires up the masses on the deck of the ship with lies and promises, throws out some SPAM and cigarettes and they go back to rowing. Then turning to his first mate says “of course non of that is true but they will row for weeks before noticing”
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I think your first paragraph is a little unrealistic — what did you expect him to accomplish? He was counted out from the beginning as a novelty candidate, one gaffe from extinction. Now, he is the leader in the clubhouse and takes Florida from its favorite son.
We campaign in poetry, we govern in prose. But, candidates tap into emotion to create supporters. Trump has proven his ability to do just that.
One does not get to turn the tiller on the aircraft carrier unless one gets elected.
Your comments in regard to CMOs are brilliant.
BRC
https://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Gee, really nice! As at
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workers_of_the_world,_unite!
Curiously close to,
That famous quote, talking about a serious problem? Yup. The source of the quote was coming with a good solution and/or making things better? Nope, likely worse.
Not sure such a post will make you the favorite dance partner at cotillions and debutante balls in yacht, polo, and Ivy League alumni clubs around the country or at Concours d’Elegance events or a meeting of high end donors arriving in private jets at a private island off the coast of Georgia!
Gee, BRC might like to get all cleaned up and enter a Concours d’Elegance to meet maybe a really cute, little red Ferrari!
But, attributed to Patton is
Gee,
That sounds a lot like what Senator John McCain said in his Senate office on Monday, July 13, 2015 to reporter Ryan Lizza about Trump’s speech to an audience of about 5000 in Phoenix, AZ, on Saturday, July 11, 2015. McCain said:
with details in
Ryan Lizza, “John McCain Has a Few Things to Say About Donald Trump”, The New Yorker, July 16, 2015.
at
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/john-mccain-has-a-few-things-to-say-about-donald-trump?reload
Gee,
Yes, and I suspect that in 2017 there will be some tell all books that make clear some of how bad he has been, IMHO, much worse than we commonly hear about now.
But there is a standard remark that revolutions are always kicking in the rotten door. Or, our founding fathers gave us democracy, and there they knew from Thomas Jefferson
I could like Kasich except, right away, even without much investigation, I see:
(1) He keeps saying “balance the Federal budget” like a snake oil salesman talks about his miracle cures. Instead, the crash of 2008 was, now, 8 years ago, and we still have massive economic stimulus from both the Fed and the US Treasury with not just no inflation but some slow, significant deflation. We’ve been in a Great Recession 2/3rds as long as the Great Depression. The real unemployment rate is about 25%, ballpark the same as in 1935 or so.
With a Kasich miracle cure of a balanced Federal budget since 2008, we’d be in the Second Great Depression, around the world, with way too great a chance of nuke WWIII, 5 billion killed, and the rest dying — extinction of humans.
To me, Kasich saying “balanced budget” is the most dangerous threat to the planet, ever — nuke WWIII, 5 billion killed right away and the rest soon to die. And, silly, foolish, ignorant, simpleton, baby talk, kindergarten, playing with nukes Little John totally fails to get it. Dangerous. Scary dangerous.
(2) Kasich just will not say anything about what to do with the ballpark 11 million illegals. Not a word. Won’t go there. Gee, just enforcing some really important laws is too much for Little John to say anything about at all.
(3) Kasich says Reagan a few times too often. I have very little respect for Reagan. IIRC, during his campaign, Reagan kept talking about the high importance of balanced Federal budgets, like a household budget, but, elected, ASAP told Stockman to spend like crazy, including on, say, Abrams tanks. So, what he said and what he did were totally different so that at least one of the two was wrong. Being so wrong about some things so important is, uh, call it, disconcerting.
Yup, in one description, Trump has created “a movement”. In another description, “a revolution”. Or, now that it’s getting obvious that Trump is for real, some people are going, the phrase is, “batshit crazy”.
The situation of batshit crazy is quite general, to be expected. If not breaking some eggs, then not making an omelet, eggnog, a chocolate cake, or much of anything. And for such cooking, gotta be able to take the heat of the kitchen. “More old cliches, please, Ma!”.
Batshit Crazy As Expected
Near the end of the movie Moneyball (2011) is a conversation between apparently John W. Henry, owner of the Boston Red Sox, and Billy Beane, General Manager of the Oakland Athletics at the Boston ballpark.
There are parallels: On one side is Trump, similar to Henry’s money and Beane’s new ideas. On the other side is the GOP establishment and much of the rest of politics, similar to the rest of baseball.
And, like the rest of baseball went “batshit crazy” over what Beane was doing and what Henry, with his money, wanted Beane to keep doing, the GOP establishment and much of the rest of politics is going batshit crazy over what Trump with his money is doing.
As Henry explains, the batshit crazy reaction is to be expected.
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Your comment was better than the blog post.
BRC
https://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Thx.
Yup, it’s general: The rest of politics, holding the reins, with their hands on the switch, are going batshit crazy. They are dinosaurs. Really, what it’s threatening is their livelihood, their jobs. It’s threatening the way that they do things. They should be tearing down their campaigns right now and rebuilding using Trump’s model. They will be sitting on their ass in July watching Trump win the Republican nomination and, IMHO, on their ass in November watching Trump win the White House with Melania as First Lady.
Some good writers for that movie!