Today elements of four Russian divisions have a coordinated attack in the Luhansk area. This is the first shot in the Russian Spring Offensive.
Note the GREEN circles by Luhansk and Donetsk. Putin is keen to control these two areas — he pretended to absorb these two areas into Russia — that have seen fighting since 2014.
Who’s attacking, Big Red Car?
The attacking Russian elements come from:
1. The 144th Motor Rifle Division,
2. The 3rd Motor Rifle Division,
3. A regiment from the 90th Tank Division, and,
4. the 76th Airborne Division.
The reason this action is thought to be the beginning of the Russian spring offensive is the troops involved are from units not currently engaged in hostilities, or units withdrawn to refit, or units that have received substantial reinforcement or new gear.
This is a substantial attack given the nature of the units — mechanized infantry, tanks, organic artillery, and paratroopers. This is a combined arms approach and indicates careful thought.
When it is reported that “elements of four Russian divisions” have launched a coordinated attack, it is important to recognize this is not a four division attack. This is parts of four divisions.
What else, Big Red Car?
The basic building block of Russian military organization is the Battalion Tactical Group which can be as few as 400 soldiers and as many as 1,000 soldiers. The Russians have a lot of artillery at the BTG level.
Three or more BTGs make up brigades/regiments and three brigades/regiments typically make up a Russian division which with other organic support units may be as many as 10 – 15,000 men.
If the Russians had attacked with four full divisions, it would be considered a corps level attack and would entail as many as 50,000 troops. That would be a hairy big deal.
This is a small hairy deal, but it indicates it is GAME THE FUCK ON!
What now, Big Red Car?
Early indications are the attacking Russian force is about 8-10,000 soldiers. If that 90th Tank Regiment unit is at full strength — highly unlikely — it would field about 90 tanks.
The Ukrainians would love to introduce those Russian tanks to some ATGM (anti-tank guided missile) suitors and the headquarters elements of the attackers to HIMARS missiles. Count on this happening and count on the Ukrainians having plenty of available stock.
Initial indications are the Russians are achieving some forward movement — to be expected by the introduction of that much firepower on a concentrated front — but the Ukrainians are pummeling them and extracting a fierce price.
Note: The Ukrainians have had plenty of warning as they have massive amounts of battlefield intelligence, satellite pictures, rail movement reports, drone recon, signals intel, and local humint (human intelligence). This is not a surprise.
By this time tomorrow, the Ukrainians, their own forces, their ATGMs, and their HIMARS will begin to impose serious casualties on the attackers. It is perfectly legitimate for the Ukrainians to give ground whilst destroying the attacking force as a prelude to a counterattack to cut off and eliminate the penetration.
If you were the general in charge of the Ukrainians, would you give half a mile for 1,000 Russian KIAs and 2X WIAs? Yes, you would.
If you were a student at the Command & General Staff College and tasked to run this fight, you would consider that trade to be the smart play and you would keep offering battle, withdrawing under control, giving ground, killing Russians, destroying equipment until the comparative combat power ratio was such that you could go over to the offense. This is exactly what you study at C&GSC and the War College.
This the science in military science.
It would not be out of the realm of possibilities for the Ukrainians to kill and wound 1,000 Russians a day as the Russians advance in small increments. This is an acceptable trade. Unfortunately, this is the calculus of war.
Be patient, Ukraine, be sure
The Ukrainians have to be patient and ensure this is not a head fake or diversion to fool them into reinforcing to have the Russians then launch the real attack in a place the Ukrainians would struggle to reinforce.
One of the Russian units in this attack was recently in Belarus and moved to Luhansk. Their presence in Belarus was intended to force the Ukrainians to divert forces to protect against an attack from Belarus.
How about the timing, Big Red Car? Is it spring?
Ahhh, very good, dear reader. It is not yet spring in Ukraine, but the reason this attack happened now is the ground is frozen. Tanks prefer frozen terra firma over mud.
When spring does come, it will bring with it daffodils and mud and mud will negate the maneuver capability of armored and mechanized forces until it dries. You will note the Russians have deployed both mechanized and armored forces in this attack.
What happens next, Big Red Car?
The Russians — meaning madman Putin — are looking to the symbolism of 24 February 2023, the anniversary of their treacherous, unprovoked attack on the peaceful, sovereign nation of Ukraine.
The Russians are quite driven by symbolism. They are trying to pump up the Russian people with some good news by 24 February 2023 in two weeks.
I doubt the Ukrainians take the bait. Plus, the Ukrainians need and want more weapons — tanks, HIMARS, ammunition, planes, anti-air.
It is smart for the Ukrainians to allow the Russians to fully disclose their planned offensive.
So, don’t expect the Ukrainians to go over onto the offensive just yet.
Once the Russian plans are clear, expect the Ukrainians to make slashing tactical movements. Sometimes, the smartest thing an army can do is to refuse combat exactly where the enemy desires it and to take action in some other place more to their advantage.
Do not allow the enemy to dictate the point of engagement.
When the North Koreans had the US and its United Nations allies pinned against Pusan and hanging on by a thread in the Korean War (and had the NK supply lines stretched to their limit), the USMC 1st Marine Division, the 7th Infantry Division, and Republic of Korea units landed up the west coast of South Korea at Inchon, cut the NK supply lines, captured Seoul (held by the NKs) and slaughtered the NK units withdrawing from Pusan.
That was a brilliant, audacious tactical move — made all the more so by the difficulties presented by Inchon and the tidal variation — made possible by the sterling fighting capabilities of the USMC and the brilliant tactical genius of Gen MacArthur.
Prediction, Big Red Car?
Sure, why not?
1. The Russians make a sincere effort to drive the Ukrainians back in Luhansk. They take some ground, but not much.
2. The Ukrainians destroy the headquarters, the tanks, the ammo supply points, the supply points of the attacking Russian forces.
3. The Russians struggle to make up personnel losses. This is the BIG PROBLEM for Russia — can they conscript, train, organize, and deploy the hundreds of thousands of troops they are drafting in time to win this war? No.
4. The Ukrainians beg for more gear right now. They will not have more tanks in time to blunt this offensive, but they will have tanks by the middle of the summer.
5. The Ukrainians contain this attack and they then attack in the area southeast of Zaporzhia to cut the land bridge from Russia to Crimea. They attack when they get their new tanks and are successful.
Bottom line it, Big Red Car
The fighting season is on for 2023 in Ukraine. There will be a Mud Season pause, but the fight is now on in earnest and there will be decisive engagements in which Russian units will be destroyed conclusively. Lots of POWs.
The Russians will achieve short term success and the Ukrainians will contain the attack and then unleash their own attack.
On New Years Day 2024, the Russians will be almost gone from Ukraine and Ukraine will be closing in on Crimea.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.
God bless Ukraine! Crush Russia!