08/4/18

Employment Structural Change

Big Red Car here on a Saturday morning getting ready to go out for blueberry pancakes at the Counter Cafe.

I have always been interested in delving beneath the covers of employment in the United States. The average person focuses on BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) U-3 – the widely reported level of unemployment which is currently at 3.9%, but that paints a very shallow picture of the employment status of the economy. Perhaps, an overly optimistic one.

Let me give you the bottom line first – the US economy is undergoing a huge structural change as the Baby Boomers begin to retire and younger folk have a different attitude toward employment.

I have often observed that the prospect of long term, stable employment is a thing of the past and the “gig” economy is here to stay. Talking to you, Mr. Internet.

My favorite source of useful data and analysis is dshort.com which is run by Doug Short, PhD, under the banner of Advisor Perspectives. You should be reading this guy’s stuff. The best in the business.

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06/7/18

Employment

Employment, Big Red Car – what about employment?

Dear reader, US employment and unemployment are both headed in the right direction, but there is a concern we need to discuss.

We need to discuss the Labor Force Participation Rate. Do you know what that means?

The LFPR is the percentage of folks aged 16-64 (the labor force) who are currently employed or seeking work.

Here is a picture of what that looks like today with our 3.8% unemployment rate. Notice, in particular, the comparison between our current LFPR/unemployment rate and the Jan-Apr 2000 all time high LFPR. Therein lies the story.

LFPR

Credit Doug Short over at Advisor Perspectives for this great chart. Read his stuff at dshort.com.

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