Predictions 2017

Predictions made by a Big Red Car, who has an uncanny ability to see the future and to keep you informed about it, y’all. Here goes.

The year 2017 is going to be YOUR year, dear reader. This year, you hang the moon, run the table, draw successfully to the inside straight, and you win. Winning — 2017 is going to be a great year to be a winner.

Ahh, and here it is, y’all.

Politics

Turns out that Donald J Trump is successfully inaugurated and becomes President which irritates a lot of #NeverTrump folks but they’ll get over it by 2020. Remember, Trump will NEVER get the nomination.

Trump forges an effective relationship with the Congress and, after repealing more than ten Obama Era Executive Orders, gets tax reform through while the Congress returns to regular order.

The Trump administration puts a 5% tax on the repatriation of foreign cash holdings by American companies as long as they increase domestic hiring by 2% in 2017. The money flows like the Niagara Falls.

The Veterans Administration gets straightened out. Long overdue.

Rick Perry closes down the Energy Department when he remembers what #3 was. Trump says, “See? Right guy for the job. Love the guy.”

John McCain and Lindsey Graham oversee Senatorial hearings which conclude the Russians are going to hack anyone who voluntarily coughs up their email password. They hold a presser to announce this. John Podesta says, “Not fair.” President Trump says, “No email for me.”

Trump appoints a Supreme Court Justice who passes muster with conservatives but irritates Senator Bernie Sanders. The SCOTUS begins to make very conservative decisions and President Trump looks forward to 2-3 more appointments. Game changer and saves the future of America. Thin skinned liberals everywhere whine at very high octave.

Sightings of Bill and Hillary Clinton are scarce, while donations to the Clinton Foundation dry up. Huh? Chelsea turns over for the Department of Justice and enters the Witness Protection Program.

Former President Obama settles into Washington, DC and after a period (six weeks) of silence becomes a constant commentator on everything. He still makes out a NCAA Tournament Bracket, which is slightly better than his Syria policy though the Russians do let him participate after hacking it and leaking it to Julian Assange. The bracket? A huge loser.

Former Presidents Carter and Obama hold a series of Town Hall Meetings, mediated by Bill O’Reilly, to debate who was the worst President. Obama by a meaningful margin.

President Trump delivers on a surprisingly large percentage of his campaign promises and doesn’t blame President Obama for anything.

President Trump invites a “deplorable” to every state dinner and lets the deplorable pick the dessert. Most of the deplorables pick cheese cake from The Cheesecake Factory with strawberry sauce. President Trump insists on fresh strawberries.

The Chinese President comes calling and President threatens to serve him cheeseburgers but finally relents and they have chicken fried steak. [You recognize this is #fakenews, no?]

First Lady Melania charms the birds out of the trees and is the classiest and most stylish First Lady ever. The New York Times discovers, “Mrs. Trump used to be a fashion model and you can hang a dress on that beauty.”

"American Woman: Fashioning A National Identity" Met Gala - Arrivals

Yes, this is my husband, Donald. He had a very good job but now he has another good job (though I think the housing supplied is a little modest) as President of the United States of America. Thank you, deplorable persons.

At the Inaugural, it becomes apparent that President Trump cannot dance but he looks good primarily because of ………. Melania standing there with him. Ivanka gets him dancing lessons.

President Donald J Trump adopts a communication strategy of ignoring the press. No more daily briefs. Lots of Tweets. Monthly or more frequently YouTube sessions. The press realizes it’s going to have to go back to actual reporting.

Foreign Affairs

President Trump and President Putin circle each other like mastiffs, bit of butt sniffing, and then play golf together. Putin plays barechested, though weather turns cold and Putin’s nipples erect a protest. President Trump sells him a polo shirt, which Putin reluctantly dons. The US-Russian relationship steps back from the abyss when Putin realizes Trump will spend Russia into the same abyss.

China continues to fortify its illegal islands in the South China Sea. President Trump reaffirms the US commitment to Taiwan and President Trump plays golf with the President of Taiwan, thereby irritating the Chinese government. There is an ugly incident with the Chinese when the US conducts a “freedom of navigation” exercise. Gets tense.

The US-Israel relationship is quickly on the mend and President Trump begins a slow and cautious campaign to woo the American Jewish voter. Donald and Bibi become great pals. No golf.

The Syrian ceasefire sticks because the Russians, Iranians, Syrians, Bashar al-Assad kill all of the US backed rebels. It is easy to have a ceasefire when one side is eliminated.

ISIS becomes a trivia question and the US kills al-Baghdadi. Mad Dog Mattis says, “What was so difficult about that? We’re the United States of America, right?”

The Russians cozy up to Turkey who contemplates leaving NATO. Trump gets them back into the fold though it takes some doing.

The Russians stop screwing with Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania when President Trump says, “Yeah, I’d consider putting 50,000 troops in Latvia on a permanent basis. Maybe an armored division. Why not?”

The American government decides to provide lethal aid to the Ukraine, which shows it has a decent army by driving the Russians out of their eastern provinces.

The Iranians are caught cheating on the nuclear deal and a President Trump administration tears it up while asking for new sanctions. New sanctions are tough. Trump says, “Try me.” The Iranians do and the US Navy takes out a flotilla of little boats and pounds the port they originated from. President Trump Tweets out: “Plenty more where that came from, Ayatollahs. Make sure your sailors know how to swim.”

President Trump reinstates all the sanctions on Cuba and turns the CIA loose to undermine the government of Raul Castro.

President Trump takes a serious look at buying Venezuela. Sends Carl Icahn to handle the deal.

North Korea tests an ICBM. Test is a bust when rocket ends up in Pacific. With Chinese approval, President Trump orders US Navy to take out both North Korean launch sites. Kim — with the bad haircut — throws a temper tantrum and the Chinese, finally, tell him to take a walk.

Domestic policy

The Trump administration begins to expel criminal immigrants immediately with a vigor not seen since the Eisenhower administration. In the first year 1,000,000 criminals are expelled. Mexico becomes very cooperative realizing this is not going away and that they own the criminals. Mexico locks them all up.

The Wall gets started and Mexico does, indeed, pay for it through tariffs on both imports and exports. The tariff rate is less than 0.5%.

The Republicans enact comprehensive immigration reform and grant AMNESTY for all illegals in the country who come forward. Trump  justifies it on the basis, “Hey, Reagan did the same thing, right?” That’s right — amnesty.

Law enforcement regains its rightful respect in American society. Congress passes a law making it automatic “life in prison” for assaulting a policeman.

Chicago does something about the murder rate. President Trump drives them in that direction.

Illinois declares bankruptcy while Mayor Rahm remains in prison for his sanctuary city defiance.

Business

Apple skins its knee and begins to look very vulnerable. It is still a huge success but it is no longer invincible. Samsung is the new tech darling. Microsoft catapults forward. Apple – short. Microsoft, Samsung – buy.

Uber is exposed as hugely overvalued and its “story” comes crashing back to Earth as Krugman observes, “It’s a freakin’ taxicab company, right?”

Twitter begins a slow death spiral as Jack Dorsey is forced to pick either Square or Twitter. He dawdles and Twitter suffers. Surprisingly enough President Trump, Twitter’s best customer, continues to use Twitter big league and the primary communication mechanism between Russia and the US is Twitter. Still, Twitter enters the death spiral though it gets credit for transforming American politics.

Oil companies prosper as all impediments to exploration in the US magically disappear. The Keystone XL Pipeline is upgraded to XXXXXL and the unions really get behind it thereby shattering another Democrat stronghold.

The energy industry explodes and creates gobs of jobs.

The US, Canada, Mexico create a North American Energy Cartel which drives the price of oil down but it doesn’t get sloppy. Russia has a fit as its economy is more than half dependent on the price of oil. US becomes a huge exporter of refined product and all refineries are operating at full capacity with calls for new refineries to be built.

Putin realizes that President Trump holds all the cards and gets in step though he is still a thug and a murderer. He and Trump talk every other week and become “Vlad” and “Donald.” World tension is reduced.

Coal regains its footing and is found to be “clean” and safe. The combination of unfettered exploration, new pipelines, coal, and nuclear makes the US an energy powerhouse. The US achieves complete energy independence at 10:13 AM, 9 December 2017. Trump Tweets out: “What? You’re surprised?”

Bitcoin ends year at $2,100. Turns out the blockchain “killer app” was bitcoin all along. Finite supply and Chinese trying to get money out of China and out of their faux currency drive demand. It becomes the digital equivalent of gold. Still, by year end, no killer blockchain app.

Economy

US GDP growth Q3-2017 is 5% on an annualized basis and Trump says, “What did I tell you?” Economists begin to complain, “President Trump has no restraint. If this keeps up we are looking at growth rates approaching ten percent.”

US jobs flood back from overseas and the desire to buy American goods and employ Americans becomes a bedrock value of the economy.

President Trump uses access to the American market like a bludgeon and makes the world pay an entrance fee to get into the US. He Tweets: “You can’t get into Disneyland for free, right?”

The NYSE index tops 24,000 by 31 December 2017, creating a sound base for more growth in 2018. Trump says, “Huh? What did you expect?”

Median family income makes solid upward movements as the combination of controlled immigration, less regulation, lower taxes dramatically increases employment. Employers begin to complain of a shortage of labor. Poets are still in over suppply.

The Labor Force Participation Rate reverses course and begins to increase. Trump says, “Anybody in America who wants a job can get one. If you’re having a problem, call me personally.”

The welfare rolls begin to contract and food stamps decline precipitously.

People begin to refer to the United States as “Trump’s America.”

But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car and I’m going on my second half century. Be good to as many people as you can in 2017 in Trump’s America.cropped-LTFD-illust_300.png

 

 

 

 

 

  • cavepainting

    JLM, Hope all is well and wish you a happy new year!

    Just came by your bar to say hi. We miss you at AVC. Seems like you and a few others are enjoying yourselves with very little dissent or debate. If you do not mind some raucous and violent disagreements, I may want to participate once in a while..

    Good to talk to you again.

    • JLM

      .
      Always welcome. Bring your A game and fire away. No thin skins here. [As a matter of fact, I have a steel skin. I am, after all, a Big Red Car.]

      Hope the New Year treats you well. It is off to an interesting start, no?

      We are in uncharted territory with icebergs and shoals ahead. Living the Chinese curse — “May you live in interesting times.”

      BRC
      http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

    • That’s really nice, cavie.

  • sigmaalgebra

    On 2017 predictions: It’s starting.

    As at

    http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/03/news/economy/ford-700-jobs-trump/index.html

    Ford is canceling plans to build a new plant in Mexico. It will invest $700 million in Michigan instead, creating 700 new U.S. jobs. Ford is canceling plans to build a new plant in Mexico. It will invest $700 million in Michigan instead, creating 700 new U.S. jobs.

    Ford (F) CEO Mark Fields said the investment is a “vote of confidence” in the pro-business environment being created by Donald Trump. However, he stressed Ford did not do any sort of special deal with the president-elect.

    “We didn’t cut a deal with Trump. We did it for our business,” Fields told CNN’s Poppy Harlow in an exclusive interview Tuesday.

    So, let me get this straight:

    (1) Obama is POTUS.

    (2) Obama has been POTUS for eight years.

    (3) Trump is only POTUS-elect.

    (4) Trump has never been in politics.

    (5) In the last eight years, jobs have been leaving the US for Mexico, especially auto industry jobs.

    (6) For eight years, Obama failed to do much about the job losses.

    “It’s the new global economy.”

    “It’s automation.”

    “It’s much lower wages over there.”

    “Those jobs aren’t coming back.”

    Maybe add a shovel full of salt to each of those claims or just toss them onto the compost heap or into the trash burning power plant.

    How ’bout for each of those claims:

    “It’s nonsense excuses.”

    (7) Today Obama is playing golf and working on his jump shot while his 747 gets fueled up.

    (8) Today Trump, not even POTUS yet, is working on his Administration. E.g., as at

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-border-trump-exclusive-idUSKBN14N0TY?il=0

    we have

    Exclusive: Trump team seeks agency records on border barriers, surveillance

    But, wait, there’s more: As at

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/construction-spending-in-nov-2016-ism-manufacturing-in-dec.html

    there is

    US construction spending hits more than 10-year high in November

    So, it’s a “10 year high”? Now, that 10 is just 8 + 2. So, not even in office yet, Trump has construction back where it was 2 years before Obama and the crash of 2008.

    But there is another “10 year high” — Obama’s?

    (9) Directly on the $700 million Ford deal, Trump got it done without even talking to Ford, without directly even lifting a finger!

    How’d Trump do that:

    the investment is a “vote of confidence” in the pro-business environment being created by Donald Trump.

    Or, look at Trump and the billionaires already nominated for his Cabinet — they all mean business.

    (10) Bottom line: Trump is a much better POTUS, and he isn’t even in office yet!

    Or, Trump, not even POTUS yet, gets more done on being POTUS on any Saturday than Obama has gotten done in eight years.

    PS: How to kick the mainstream media (MSM) in the back side: Have Trump type a few dozen words into Twitter each day.

    Q. Obama has been struggling with ISIS since when? How long will SECDEF General Mattis need?

    Maybe we need to start some betting on just when it is announced that al Baghdadi dies? Suppose Baghdadi reads on-line that the betting is that he gets his magic carpet ride to Allah in two days?

    Q. Trump is getting stuff done, and Paul Ryan is still doing trash talk and not on the team. Paul Ryan looks dense.

    • JLM

      .
      Hard not to see it the way you lay it out. Today, the Senate took the first step to kill Obamacare using “budget resolution” and defunding the core of the plan.

      Trump’s America is here and the guy isn’t even inaugurated. Wish he’d taken up politics as a hobby earlier, no?

      #trumpsamerica #trump

      BRC
      http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

    • SFG

      Good post Sigma. I was seriously pondering yesterday just how happy I was to see such progress by Trump — and like waving a magic little wand, corporations are very happy to keep jobs here. Hell, if nothing else, it will build serious brand loyalty!

      As a citizen, I have felt so freaking screwed for the last 8 years by a POTUS who’s agenda was to simply give America away at every opportunity. And I never figured out exactly why it had to be that way.

      I will gladly pay more for Made In America. We all don’t need a bunch of cheap Chinese shit anyway.

      #newparidigm
      #realleadership

      • JLM

        .

        Can you imagine when he gets inaugurated?

        JLM
        http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

      • sigmaalgebra

        Thanks.

        Ford? Here’s a guess: They canceled their $1+ billion Mexico plant! Why? Uh, suppose they build that thing-y and start shipping cars, and, at the US border, suddenly get a Trump 35% tariff?

        So, their $1+ billion just went into the toilet, and they don’t want that.

        The newsies didn’t take Trump seriously, but with $1+ billion in capex that might go to zero in a year, Ford did take Trump seriously. There is something about losing $1+ billion of capex in less than a year that is a cold, wet towel in the face reality check.

        From making in the US instead of importing, the main increase in prices will be just at the output loading dock of the manufacturer, and generally that is a surprisingly small fraction of the US retail price.

        Shipping costs to the US? Won’t have any.

        Time for a big boat to move from Shanghai to Long Beach? Won’t have any of that, either.

        Shipping costs inside the US? Usually lower since US manufacturers, wholesalers, etc. can make better use of the US logistic infrastructure than just importing at Long Beach.

        For the wholesaler and retailer, inventory costs will be lower due to a shorter, faster, more responsive supply chain.

        Uh, for that new canal across Central America to compete with the Panama Canal? The new canal was in part to permit big boats from Shanghai to reach US East Coast ports.

        For the retail bricks and mortar and cute teenage girls for the clerks to take your money, put the items in a bag, and give you a nice smile, those will be the same. Similarly if you buy via Amazon.

        For the US manufacturer, getting their inputs from their suppliers, then also in the US, will be much better due to better communications (everyone knows English well), faster product changes, much better response on small or custom orders, etc.

        E.g., supposedly in the women’s rag trade, the company doing the sewing needs to be close to the company doing the dying and printing who needs to be close to the company doing the weaving, etc.

        Yes, Les Wexner, long of The Limited rag trader in Columbus, OH, would watch some TV show that had teen girl fashions, get the order for the copies to China electronically, fly the finished goods to the US in a 747, and have the items on the racks in the malls by the weekend.

        Well, such things are just easier and still faster all in the US.

        For Obama, this year we will look for some answers to some questions:

        (1) How many ways did Obama do things — thousands of small cuts, nearly all ignored by the newsies — that hurt the US?

        (2) How much damage was done?

        (3) Why didn’t the newsies tell us about the cuts and damage?

        (4) Why did he do it?

        • SFG

          Ford’s leadership was brilliant to jump on board with Trump. They got so much press and really good, warm-fuzzy press at that. I’m now loyal to Ford products!

          I’m sick and tired of this country being taken advantage of (should I say raped?) by Mexico!

          Trump could literally change the world. And I’m not saying that lightly.

          These are exciting times and I’m very optimistic!

          #gotrump
          #byeobamacare

  • sigmaalgebra

    On predictions, I want to get the predictions of either of two people, (1) their predictions are consistently wildly wrong, say, only 10% right, or (2) consistently wildly right, say, only 10% wrong.

    Then for (2), I will invest in their predictions, and for (1), whatever they predict, I will take a position on the other side.

    As in the simple algebra in

    http://themusingsofthebigredcar.com/israel-some-thoughts/#comment-3077682021

    being right half the time is easy: Make the predictions just by flipping a coin.

    If someone believes that being right 30% of the time consistently is really good, then for a fee I’ll promise them 40% with a larger fee for any results above 40%.

  • Tim Bates

    DJT releases BHO college records that show he got barely passing grades and used his foreign student status to abuse the scholarship system. DJT tweets, “Told you So” Mic drop!

    • JLM

      .
      Wouldn’t that be a hoot?

      I suspect that if BHO were to become a constant pain in the butt for Pres Trump, it’s exactly the kind of move he’d make. Why not?

      One has to know that if BHO had great grades, they would have made their way to the surface, no?

      I have always been surprised that nothing came out from Occidental, Harvard, and Harvard Law.

      We shall see.

      BRC
      www,themusingsofthebigredcar.com

    • cavepainting

      Sorry, but this is seriously bad humor and terribly disrespecting of a very good man.

      • JLM

        .
        Hard to read it that way, Cave.

        I confess to being extremely curious as to Pres Obama’s grades at Occidental, Columbia, and Harvard Law. Having read both of his books, I observe there is very little in that period of his life untold, so the issue of his grades is a legitimate source of curiosity.

        All Presidents, the worst ones in particular, become more beloved with the passage of time. Sometimes, that is exacerbated or accelerated by the comparison with their successor.

        While Ronald Reagan has been elevated to sainthood, I confess to being very skeptical. The reality of his presidency (in particular, the Iran-Contra illegality) was not nearly as saintly as seemingly noted today. Same thing with Jimmy Carter (the best ex-President ever).

        Pres Obama is going to have a tougher time of things because so much of his legacy is invested in Obamacare and that is going to be unraveled completely (though things like pre-existing conditions and children on parental insurance policies are going to survive).

        I predict that Pres Obama does not go gracefully and will be unable to resist the temptation to attempt to be Pres Trump’s co-president, thereby delivering almost the entire Senate to the Republicans in 2018. While personally popular, he does not seem to get the unpopularity of many of his policies which gave the Republicans their big wins in 2014/16. He created Pres Trump, no?

        BRC
        http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

      • Tim Bates

        Two opinions that are yours and should not be stated as facts
        1) My humor is bad….
        2) he is a very good Man….
        Both could be argued and others have various opinions like yours and like mine. Please do not state opinion as if it was fact, often the sign of narrow thinking.

        • cavepainting

          Those are my considered opinions. Just FYI, anything we say are our opinions, unless they are indisputable and supported by overwhelming evidence.

          Now for your sense of bad humor, your response probably adds to the body of evidence, but hey, that is just my opinion.

          • Tim Bates

            Thanks for owning your opinion!

  • I make one more prediction:

    Something really bad comes out about HRC

    Think about it. You aren’t going to come forward with Obama in power and her expected to win. If you screw up you’ll get cover.

    You might like knowing you have an insurance policy, you might worry that you’ll get stomped by the government, you might be expecting a favor.

    Somebody will be found in a screw-up and to cover they will spill their guts. Remember Michael Vick?

    • JLM

      .
      Makes perfect sense.

      BRC
      http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

    • sigmaalgebra

      My guess has long been that BHO and HRC have long been two scorpions in a bottle. That is, each has some really bad dirt on the other. My wild guess has to do with some foreign policy efforts of the Saudis.

      I have long expected that in 2017 some tell-all books will come out that will shock the US and the world and have nearly everyone conclude that, by winning the election, Trump caused the US to dodge a very serious bullet.

  • sigmaalgebra

    Issue by issue, WaPo average grade, D-. NYT average grade, flat F. Worst in the class.

    BRC: Humor, A+. Average grade on issues, A-. Overall, BRC very perceptive, from bright up to approaching brilliant. Nice.

    Corollary: Last 24 years in the White House, biggest waste in the world since WWII or before.

    About the past 24 years, just now the US needs to think, borrowing from a movie, think about just five words: “We’ll never do that again.”.

    Instead, the US will go for national security, good jobs, happy families, and lots of excellent children, with a lot of the boys good at football and a lot of the girls just drop dead gorgeous, angelic sweethearts!

    Then, how the heck to keep from again extracting miserable defeat from the jaws of magnificent victory, taking such success for granted, and letting the Democrats back in power? How? How? One way: Never read the NYT and hope, as is likely, they finally go totally belly up.

  • Does the Big 10 come back to win the Rose Bowl?

    • JLM

      .
      No. Sorry.

      Alabama wins the football national championship and Duke whips the Heels like a red headed stepchild. Twice. Late breakng news suggests Coach K is out with back surgery. Duke suffers under Coach Capel.

      President Trump doesn’t fill out a Final Four Bracket, making him a winner.

      Venture funds run by tall, shaved head guys are huge. Huge.

      BRC
      www/themusingsofthebigredcar.com

  • SFG

    Here are my top four favorite lines —
    — Thin skinned liberals everywhere whine at very high octave.
    — President Trump delivers on a surprisingly large percentage of his campaign promises and doesn’t blame President Obama for anything.
    — President Trump Tweets out: “Plenty more where that came from, Ayatollahs. Make sure your sailors know how to swim.
    –US jobs flood back from overseas and the desire to buy American goods and employ Americans becomes a bedrock value of the economy.

    Keeps the posts coming, and great job as usual… You really had me cracking up!

  • JLM

    .
    The Big Red Car lays out what WILL happen in 2017.

    http://themusingsofthebigredcar.com/predictions-2017

    Be well.

    BRC
    http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

  • Richard Carlow

    I hope it’s a great year for you JLM (and your car of course). It is shaping up to be great for us too.