North Korea — Chinese Vassal State?

OK, the whole North Korea shtick is getting tiresome.

Big Red Car here on a sunny and promising day. Hope it’s nice where you are.

Know where it’s not nice? Yeah, North Korea.

So, what’s going on with China and the North Koreans? China is the “shot caller” here. That’s the legend.

But, what’s going on.

Let me punch line it for you — the Big Red Car thinks China is jerking the world around. [Contentious, Big Red Car. Why you wanna be so damn contentious all the damn time?]

On one hand, the Chinese want to have good relations with the United States of America. We had the whole “let’s meet for brunch” summit at Mar-a-Lago whereat President Trump and President Xi (and their wives) made nice on each other for the public to see. [Folks are saying President Xi wore a Trump brand suit.]

Xi and Trump

Come on, Xi, I didn’t feed you cheeseburgers like I threatened during the campaign. Can’t you give us some help with these North Koreans?

The world thought — post-summit — the North Korea situation would get better. Has it?

Who thought the US would station a carrier battle group and a couple of boomers (nuke capable subs) between Korea and Japan?

Chinese Trade With North Korea

The Big Red Car is a devotee of following the money. So, where is the money going?

The money, dear reader, is going into more and more trade between China and North Korea.

 1. Q1-2017, Chinese trade with North Korea is up 37% when compared to Q1-2016.

Sound like China’s tightening the thumbscrews on Kim Il Mojo to you?

 2. China is a big purchaser of North Korean stuff. Stuff includes metals (zinc, iron ore) and minerals.

Chinese importation of North Korean iron ore, Big Red Car? UP 270% Jan/Feb 2017 v Jan/Feb 2016.

When China buys stuff, North Korea taxes it and receives funds to run their nuclear program.

Sound like China’s tightening the thumbscrews on Kim Il Mojo to you, dear reader?

 3. North Korea built big textile plants in the north (close to the Yalu River border with Manchuria) to serve Chinese appetites for fabric and clothing. This trade continues to increase.

 4. China buys seafood from North Korea.

 5. China did decrease coal imports from North Korea by 52%, but this was as a result of a United Nations mandate months before the Mar-a-Lago pow wow. It had nothing to do with President Trump’s actions. China says the decrease in coal importation is their way of punishing Kim Jong-un for killing his half brother in Malaysia.

[Pro tip: The Chinese stockpile huge amounts of coal for power generation and other uses. They still have existing stockpiles of NK coal, so how real is this coal halt? In fairness, the Chinese have begun to buy meaningful amounts of American coal.]

 6. What has not happened is China has made no attempt to turn off the spigot on oil. Even in this part of the world, there is oil politics. If the Chinese wanted to send Kim a message? “No oil for you, fat boy.”

Why Does China Love North Korea?

At the heart of everything with China is this — the Chinese do not want to have a South Korean style democracy on their border. Militarily, they consider it to be an invasion route and a well tethered aircraft carrier. Simple as that.

The Chinese are, rightfully, skeptical about their neighbors. The Japs did mischief in that part of China from 1931 until being expelled at the end of World War II in 1945. They launched their invasion from … wait on it … Korea, thereby validating the whole invasion route thesis.

The Chinese have a long memory and incidents like the Wanpaoshan Incident and the Mukden Incident are still fresh wounds. [For you historians, remember Japan occupied Korea in those days and the Chinese and the Japs were staring at each other continuously.]

When the Japs invaded Manchuria, they set up a fake, puppet state called “Manchukuo.” Just the renaming of Manchuria infuriates the Chinese. They do not like foreign invaders renaming stuff.

There is a well-founded concern in China about neighbors.

The Chinese built a freakin wall around the whole country. They made the Mexicans pay for it. [Haha. That’s a joke.]

Bottom Line It, Big Red Car

OK, here it is. The Big Red Car thinks the Chinese will do nothing to overthrow Kim and they will never allow a South Korean style democracy on their border. Bottom. Line.

If the Chinese snapped their fingers, Kim Dung-un would be gone.

Kim 2

This is the dipshit causing all the trouble. He is NOT wearing a Trump brand suit. This fat fuck is starving his people and spending money on nukes and ICBMs. Do you love the big headed military guys?

But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Chinese Car, y’all. Be good to yourself and have a bacon, egg, and cheese taco. Two.cropped-LTFD-illust_300.png

  • SFG

    I opine now that China is waiting for we ADD Americans to forget about NK (once again) and go back to fussing over Russia 24/7 — so life goes on back to the status quo.

    Seeing the Carl Vincent off the NK coastline is pretty awesome. A few years ago, I was up in SF for fleet week (I’m a total ship nerd) and we were walking across the golden gate bridge when the CV sailed right below us with her crew all lined up around the edges of the ship. Needless to say, all of we civilians were yelling and screaming like crazy people! It was really cool to see SO much ship from such a vantage point. Fat Fuck would not dare to put even a scratch on the CV — or else. #Our Navy is pretty stinking bad ass.

    • JLM

      .
      The challenge for an aircraft carrier deployed so close to land is simple, stupid stuff like an old fashioned Exocet missile which sunk the HMS Sheffield in the Falklands War in 1982.

      They were good for about 40 nm and the Brits took a lot of hits from them. That was the last naval exchange with a bluewater navy.

      Today, there is a whole new bunch of supersonic anti-ship missiles with a range of 250 nm. That sound like a long distance, but it would be nothing for an aircraft carrier to operate 500 nm from the coast. That’s an hour’s ride for the planes for dry feet.

      The Chinese have the newest badass export anti-ship missile in the CM-302. Nobody knows if anybody has bought any of them, but the Chinese say they are for sale.

      They are land, ship, submarine, jeep launchable which means a sub could get close to the fleet and fire away.

      I wonder if NK has any of them and whether the Chinese would want them to test them for them.

      The Chinese have their YJ-12 anti-ship cruise missile which is not for export. It has a range of 400 km and a 205 lbs warhead. It is only able to be launched by air. You can imagine how difficult things might get if six planes were spread out with YJ-12s and 400 nm distant from our fleet.

      This is why an aircraft carrier has to control the sky for 700 miles in all directions.

      The Chinese YJ-18 has the ability to approach its target at 995 kmh and to accelerate to Mach 3 at wave top level as it closes.

      This is a game with our anti-missile weapons and their anti-ship missiles playing the range and accuracy card against each other.

      We win the long game, because we destroy the launch equipment. It may be expensive in the short term if an NK sub gets in range and fires off every one of its missiles.

      After the first shot, one has to imagine the NK Navy is on life support with no chance for recovery. This kind of thing gets big fast.

      JLM

      • SFG

        Thank you for this information. The YJ-18 sure is a nasty missile. Interesting how it needs to be launched via air and can fly wave top that fast. Besides the sea wiz guns, what do we deploy to kill incoming missiles?

      • sigmaalgebra

        More good stuff I didn’t see in the MSM.

        Yes, the US has >= 1 SSBN (submarine launched ballistic missile submarines) near Korea. We may also have some US attack submarines that specialize in detecting, finding, tracking other submarines. Thus, a NK submarine that tries to get close enough to attack a US aircraft carrier stands to get sunk.

        Right, US defense analysts have gamed out such scenarios and how to protect a US aircraft carrier, the US SSBN fleet, etc. for a very long time. I have high confidence that NK won’t even touch the US fleet.

        One little point: It’s a big ocean out there, and NK stands to have some severe difficulty even knowing where the heck the US fleet actually is.

        For NK to find a US submarine? Not a chance!

    • sigmaalgebra

      Right, the cost of a US aircraft carrier would really set back any yacht owner! Also no newbie can expect to duplicate or equal all the crucial technology for decades of very expensive work. A US aircraft carrier is so darned expensive, from the first thought through any time at sea, that “if you have to ask the price then you can’t afford it” — in all the world, essentially only the US can afford it, and we keep a dozen or so ready and are rapidly building the next generation even better and, no doubt, more expensive.

  • sigmaalgebra

    Terrific information I didn’t see in the MSM.

    Points:

    (1) Kim Ding Dung Dong Song Pong Ill Uno, a.k.a. Dung Dong, is, in clinical language, a total wack-o. That should worry China. So, China, when they have at least two people there awake at the same time, should unamiously agree that Dung Dong should NOT get long range missiles, nukes, or nukes that can be launched long range on their missiles.

    (2) I China wants to buy copper, tin, iron, aluminum, silver, gold, or nearly any metals in the periodic table, they need to do no more than go on the international market and pay about what the prices are on the commodities market. For that matter, same for textiles; The world textile market has textiles, I’d guess, by the hundreds of square miles and more varieties than Dung Dong has artillery pieces. No way does China really need anything NK has. It Dung Dong wants to make some money and has some sea food, then, sure, since sea food goes for super big bucks on the international market, Dung Dong could sell sea food. Dung Dong can sell iron and coal? Okay, IIRC one of the main reason in the 1930s and WWI Japan wanted Manchuria was for, let me check this, right, IIRC, iron and coal. No doubt China is not paying Dung Dong more than international market value for iron or coal; so Dung Dong should be able to make bucks buy selling his iron and coal into the international market. So, China need not be Dung Dong’s only source of hard currency. Or, first-cut, China and Dung Dong don’t really need each other.

    (3) China doesn’t was a South Korean style democracy on their borders. Okay by me, BRC. I hope that after Viet Nam and Iraq, the US has devoted its last drop of US blood and penny of US treasure to setting up democracies around the world.

    (4) About Dung Dong himself? Dump Dung Dong? Why? Instead send him a few 55 gallon drums of French cheese, butter, ice cream, and wine. Let him pig out. If the starving North Korean people don’t like Dung Dong, then they can dump Dung Dong. Generally I prefer that dictators in control of their countries stay there in control because I have no idea what the alternative might be. We got our lesson in Iraq; W in Gulf War II thought that anyone, or that he could find someone, better than Saddam. Nope. Ssddam did something quite remarkable: He kept a tight lid on the 1000+ year old war between Sunni and Shiite Islam. Remarkable. Also Saddam was good at pushing back against Iran. Good. He was mean to the Kurds; Turkey is mean to the Kurds; Syria is mean to the Kurds; everything I’ve heard about the Kurds makes them sound admirable, but in fact over there nearly everyone is mean to the Kurds. I’m sorry about the Kurds.

    (5) Maybe Dung Dong is afraid that South Korea will invade Dung Dong’s playground and, thus, end and win the Korean war. I hope not — I don’t like wars.

    (6) But China, the US, and just from looking at a map, Japan, Taiwan, Russia, and South Korea, even the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, and more, all have a really big interest in common: Keep Dung Dong from having nukes or long range missiles. Then, I have to conclude that Trump was correct: If China won’t teach Dung Dong some acceptable international etiquette, then the US should, and China should be happy about it. Again, this elementary education lesson does not have to involve dumping Dung Dong or setting up a democracy in the land of the Giant Dung Dong. In international euphemisms, dumping Dung Dong is up to the North Koreans. Except for the missiles and nukes, Dung Dong keeps a tight lid on the land of the Giant Dung Dong — fine with me.

    (7) So, what to do? Well, first identify, locate, and add up all the smaller targets, e.g., all the artillery and rockets that can hit any other country, especially South Korea. We’re talking each artillery piece, one by one. Same for airplanes — military or commercial. Allocate three cruise missiles to each of those targets.

    For the missile R&D facilities, level those carpet bomb style, using whatever General Mattis, et al. regards as appropriate. For the nuke R&D sites, use massive penetrator bombs for the parts below ground and level all the stuff on the surface. Hae plenty of defense if Dung Dong tries to send his troops, tanks, whatever to South Korea — have lots of fuel and ammunition for A-10s, Apache helicopters, F-16s, etc.

    Have ready plenty of special forces with helicopters with close air support for rescuing any downed US pilots.

    Have the NSA and FBI ready to detect and stop any of Dung Dong’s spies or soldiers in the US.

    Then for the steps.

    Don’t take time to destroy Dung Dong’s air defense. Instead, for all the attacking airplanes, use stealth, e.g., F-117s, F-35s, maybe F-22s if want to repurpose those. For the cruise missiles, have them fly low and guided by GPS, right to the last few inches of accuracy.

    Target, attack, and destroy the Dung Dong HQ in Ping Pong Yang to take out his command and control.

    Time the strikes on the artillery so that hopefully not even one artillery shell reaches South Korea. Again, we’re talking three cruise missiles per artillery piece, tank, airplane, etc.

    Take out the nuke and missile facilities.

    All within at most 10 minutes. Well, to avoid fratricide we want the cruise missiles to come in three waves, of three minutes each, with one minute to spare.

    Notify China, Russia, Taiwan, Japan, etc. that 10 minutes ago the attack started and is now done and that South Korea and Japan have promised not to invade the land of the Giant Dung Dong.

    Have not one US soldier set foot in the land of the Giant Dung Dong unless it is necessary to rescue a downed US pilot.

    Fully intend that not one US soldier gets so much as a cracked fingernail or even gets their “hair mussed”. Also, no one in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Russia, China, etc. should be hurt.

    Be ready for hundreds of thousands of Dung Dong’s 100 pound soldiers to make suicide charges to South Korea — kill’m as fast at they come.

    Monitor the situation to stop anything else Dung Dong might have that could hurt anyone.

    LEAVE.

    Right, it’s a lot of cruise missiles. If we don’t have enough cruise missiles and/or are not able to launch that many in just 10 minutes, then make do with other means.

    • JLM

      .
      An interesting well done rant.

      The US interest is not having a nuclear NK. Period.

      The Chinese interest is as I noted above.

      The problem is Kim.

      Right now, China has control over NK, but only if they are willing to cut off the oil. Even that may not control Kim.

      If Kim falls, the highest likelihood is some rapprochement with South Korea W Germany/E Germany style. This is the last thing China wants.

      Yesterday, Kim achieved something he has wanted forever. The US said it would engage in direct talks with NK. This is a huge propaganda coup. I think the US should talk to anyone and everyone. But, still, it makes NK look legit.

      This problem does not have very long legs.

      BRC
      http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com

    • SFG

      General Sigma, your Top-Secret battle plan has been approved and has been forwarded to the Pentagon. Thank you for your service to our country. Mad-Dog will be in contact with you once we are ready to launch our attack.

  • Andrew Cashion

    Went to an aluminum and zinc die casting facility the other week. Many machines there are being replaced by Taiwanese machinery because the Japanese machines have become overpriced. I’m dumbfounded that china would buy coal from Korea as china is so massive.

    • JLM

      .
      I think the teaching point is China WANTS to use NK coal to prop up the regime. It’s a better arrangement than a hand out. They’re doing the same thing with oil.

      The US took down all the Yalu River bridges in the Korean War and the Chinese rebuilt them. Now, the Chinese have 150,000 men on the border and they have a problem with NKs trying to sneak into China.

      China has a focused interest in NK — no South Korean democracy on their border, no US ally on their border, no invasion route, no tethered aircraft carrier.

      BRC
      http://www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com