Big Red Car here. How did we do on our Foreign Affairs predictions in 2018? Here it is.
Foreign Affairs Predictions 2018
North Korea will find a way to initiate direct talks with South Korea first. It will be initiated by the Olympics. This will lead to a proxy convo which will work to dispel the tension on the Korean Peninsula.
CORRECT. Big league.
If North Korea tests a mid-ocean nuclear device, the US will attack North Korea with a “bloody nose” attack taking out all nuclear weapon launch sites, all launchers, all power plants serving launch sites, the command & control, and wait to see North Korea’s response. If they respond militarily, the US will decapitate North Korean leadership and wait to see if North Korea fires artillery at South Korea. If North Korea fires a single round, the US will wipe out every artillery tube within 50 miles of the DMZ with three carrier strike groups, three cruise missile subs, four squadrons of bombers from Guam, and the combined ferocity of American air power in South Korea and Japan. The shit will be over in a week. No nukes will be used.
No mid-ocean nuclear device tested.
China will not be helpful as it relates to North Korea, but they will not become involved if the US attacks North Korea as long as the US doesn’t use nuclear weapons.
CORRECT, China not helpful. No US attack.
Once North Korea is solved, China and the US face off on trade. It gets ugly and vindictive.
CORRECT. Big league.
The fighting in the Ukraine will ratchet up as lethal American aid begins to arrive. The Ukrainians will discharge their duties with skill and aplomb. They will use anti-tank, artillery, and anti-air weapons supplied by the US with great results.
CORRECT. We are getting ready to see this explode into a full scale war. Already, the Unkrainians are using US lethal aid. Going to get ugly.
Putin and Trump will circle each other like a couple of Rottweilers. Any notion that these guys like each other will evaporate.
Putin will test NATO in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia. This will be the result of the lethal weapon support to the Ukraine.
WRONG. May be a work in progress, but wrong in 2018.
President Trump provides moral and covert support to Iranian rebels. The Iranian Rebellion becomes a thing.
WRONG. No move on this front yet. May be in the works.
President Trump decertifies the Iranian deal.
ISIS is reduced to 500 men in a tiny bit of land in southeastern Syria.
The Iranians exert considerable influence over Iraq and develop a crescent of power which reaches from Iran through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon. Iranian funding of Hezbollah gives them incredible power in Lebanon’s politics where Hezbollah continues to emerge as a political force.
CORRECT. Bit of inside baseball subject.
The Israelis get jumpy about having Iran on their border.
The new Middle East teams are the US-Israel-Saudi Arabia v Iran-Syria-Russia. Iraq is under the thumb of Iran.
The US holds Pakistan’s feet to the fire, terminates almost all financial aid, and puts them on notice about harboring terrorists.
CORRECT. This one surprised me. I knew President Trump would consider it, but I was surprised it was acted on so quickly. Big league.
As part of the Pakistan issue, the US cozies up to India — long, long, long overdue. India will emerge as a critical US ally in regard to Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China.
HALF CORRECT. Work in progress. Still, one of the smartest things the US can do.
The war in Afghanistan begins to wind down as the US drives toward destroying the Taliban in much the same way it did ISIS.
WRONG. We are still adrift in A’stan.
The US continues to conduct “freedom of navigation” exercises in the South China Sea and the Chinese continue to build and fortify their dozen atoll islands.
Surprisingly high batting average of correct picks. Well played, Big Red Car.