Big Red Car here on a sunny ATX beauty of a day. Talking Business 2018 predictions report card.
So, Big Red Car, how did you do?
We did OK, dear reader. Here it comes.
So, how did we do, y’all? Here it is.
Businesses jump all over an improving economy. The reduction of corp tax rates is a psychological game changer, but the repatriation of overseas profits is a bust.
CORRECT. Nobody really felt the repatriation of overseas profits though they did fund future expansions like Apple’s $1B expansion in Austin By God Texas.
There is a huge Silicon Valley sexual deviancy scandal wherein it turns out men/boys with power and money behave badly. The surprise is how badly they behave. Ugh. It is rooted in sex, drugs, alcohol, deviancy, men/boys, and willing women. It turns out to be an incredible mess. Read the Vanity Fair article, but take a shower afterward. The venture capital business gets a black eye.
CORRECT though it came and went in the blink of an eye.
The US pulls out of NAFTA which turns out to be a non-event. Relations with Mexico improve as The Wall is under construction and they didn’t pay for it.
HALF CORRECT. US pulls out of NAFTA, negotiates USMCA replacement. US-Mexico relations do not improve much. Wall is not under construction at anticipated scale though parts of it are under construction.
Amongst Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google, Google does the best and continues to own search (haha, sorry) which drives their business. These companies, plus Apple and Microsoft, become the Standard Oils of their time. They become lumbering giants casting a deadly shadow behind them.
CORRECT. At year end, Facebook is under huge pressure for privacy transgressions. Talk of anti-monopoly is more than a whisper.
Tesla comes back to reality when it cannot figure out how to produce all the cars it has on order. The other car companies, particularly the luxury cars, get into the game and there is no real unique selling advantage to a Tesla as “first mover” advantage is squandered. Tesla stock dives by year end.
MOSTLY CORRECT. Tesla dips and comes back a bit on the ill-advised utterances of one Elon Musk who is not getting a Christmas card from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
The United States becomes an incredible energy machine, not only independent, but dominant. LNG becomes a strategic weapon freeing eastern Europe from the Russian Bear’s influence.
CORRECT. Big league. Huge story. USA is full of oil.
Cryptocurrency continues to face enormous volatility but trends down by year end. The SEC and other countries — South Korea, China — begin to corral the bad actors. The tax treatment is firmed up and it makes bitcoin into a piece of property, not a currency. The bubble breaks, but not until year end.
CORRECT. Crypto slides all year long. Bad actors start to get rounded up by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. IRS does firm up rules. Move along, nothing to see here.
Still no killer app for the blockchain though it is being worked by the smartest people in the world. The basic premise that the world “needs” the blockchain is finally seen to be the Emperor and he is a fat, white, naked guy.
CORRECT. Some of this is puzzling to the Big Red Car who is not an easy muscle car to puzzle.
So, there you have it, dear reader. A pretty good run of predictions. Almost ran the table.
BTW, here is the original set of predictions for 2018 for those keeping score at home.